Poll shows Donald Trump with large lead over Joe Biden in Kentucky

President Donald Trump is likely to win Kentucky by a large margin again this fall, according to a new survey by independent polling firm Morning Consult.

The online survey of 700 likely voters in Kentucky from July 24 to Aug. 2 found Trump easily leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden 59% to 35%, with the election less than 100 days away.

Though smaller than Trump's 30 percentage point margin of victory in Kentucky over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, the survey showed that Republicans are far from being at risk of losing the state's eight electoral votes.

A Morning Consult survey of 900 likely voters in Indiana also showed Trump with a big lead over Biden that resembled his previous win in that state over Clinton.

The survey found Trump with the support of 55% of Hoosier respondents and Biden with only 38%, a slightly smaller margin than Trump's 57% to 38% win in 2016.

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Kentucky has heavily trended toward Republicans in federal elections in recent decades, with the GOP candidate winning every race for U.S. Senate since 1998 and every Republican presidential candidate winning by a blowout since 2000.

Kentucky Democrats have hoped that a weakened Trump would help their candidates down the ballot, as his 30 percentage point blowout of Clinton obliterated the Democrats' state House majority in 2016.

Biden picked up a slightly higher percentage of support from the Morning Consult poll respondents in Kentucky than Democratic U.S. candidate Amy McGrath, who was trailing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell 53% to 36%.

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Trump had the support of 91% of Kentucky Republicans surveyed, along with 51% of

Independents and 17% of Democrats. 

Biden was supported by 79% of Democrats, 28% of Independents and 6% of Republicans in the poll.

The survey of likely voters in Indiana indicated stronger support among the candidates' own parties than in Kentucky, with Trump favored by 93% of Republicans and Biden favored by 86% of Democrats.

President Barack Obama won a narrow victory in Indiana over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race before losing by over 10 percentage points in 2012, while Clinton lost to Trump by 19 percentage points.

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Averages of national polling in the presidential race show Biden with a lead of roughly 7 to 9 percentage points over Trump, with both candidates' campaigns focusing their advertising on a dozen swing states that do not include Kentucky and Indiana.

The poll results have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

Reach reporter Joe Sonka at jsonka@courierjournal.com or 502-582-4472 and follow him on Twitter at @joesonka. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courierjournal.com/subscribe.