Why did Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin lose to Andy Beshear? These 6 maps tell the story
On the surface, it doesn't make sense.
Why would a reliably red state that embraces President Donald Trump pass over a conservative Republican incumbent, who Trump endorsed, to elect a pro-choice Democrat for governor?
But Kentucky voters did just that Tuesday, choosing Attorney General Andy Beshear over Gov. Matt Bevin by a slim 5,100-vote margin. Beshear claimed victory, although Bevin refused to concede.
Why did Beshear prevail? Here are six maps that illustrate how Beshear turned just enough red counties to blue to swing the outcome in his favor.
We start with a little history.
Bevin rides a red wave to beat Conway
In 2015, after barely squeaking out a victory in the Republican primary, Matt Bevin trounced Attorney General Jack Conway in the general election to win the governor's race.
Also:Kentucky's governor election had the state's highest voter turnout since 1995
Conway underperformed in many areas, capturing a majority of the vote in barely more than a dozen counties. Weaker-than-needed showings in Louisville and Lexington hurt him as well.
Bevin turned in strong performances among voters in a state that were already turning a deeper red. Southern and Northern Kentucky tilted heavily to Bevin, pushing him to an easy victory.
Trump swamps Hillary in a tidal wave
Things only got worse for Democrats in the 2016 general election.
Kentucky voters embraced the Republican presidential nominee Trump with a fervor that swamped Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Indeed, Trump received two votes for every one vote Clinton got, adding up to a landslide. Clinton carried only two counties — Jefferson and Fayette — and even there the margins of victory were 15% or smaller for her.
The rout was on as the Republican Party took firm control of Kentucky, including the legislature.
Also:Trump: It's not my fault Bevin lost in Kentucky. (Says 'Fake News' will blame him anyway)
The Trump bump fails to rescue Bevin
As Bevin ran for reelection, Kentucky remained as red as ever. But the governor's caustic personality took a toll with voters.
Deeply unpopular, Bevin pivoted to embrace Trump and condemn abortion. Trump stumped for the governor in Lexington on the eve of Tuesday's general election, urging voters to turn out to reelect Bevin.
"If you lose, it sends a really bad message," Trump told the packed arena. "You can't let that happen to me."
Voters turned out, but not in the way Trump or Bevin had hoped.
Energized Lexington and Louisville flocked to Beshear. The attorney general received 36,500 more votes than Bevin in Fayette County and 99,000 more votes in Jefferson County.
It didn't hurt that the two counties had a combined 9,000 teachers eager to take out their anger with Bevin at the ballot box.
Many accused Bevin of "bullying" state educators and pushing legislation they considered harmful to public education.
Looking at 2020: Bevin's down. Does that mean 'Moscow Mitch' is next? Probably not.
Beshear also was able to flip several key counties, including two traditionally red Northern Kentucky counties — Kenton and Campbell.
Both are home to smaller independent public school districts and countywide districts that had criticized Bevin’s stances on education.
Beshear also flipped Warren County, home to traditionally conservative Bowling Green and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul.
Altogether, those votes were just enough to push Beshear past Bevin Tuesday night.
Mike Trautmann: 502-582-7081; mtrautmann@gannett.com; Twitter: @trautguy. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/subscribe.