A look at Kentucky football's bowl possibilities at halfway point of 2019 season

LEXINGTON – For all the twists and turns in Kentucky’s season thus far, the Wildcats have reached the midway point of the season at 3-3 and still on pace for a fourth consecutive bowl berth.

Mark Stoops’ squad figures to be an underdog in its next two games against Georgia and Missouri, but a manageable November schedule (Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, UT Martin, Louisville) opens a clear path to postseason play. Beating Arkansas on Saturday ensures Kentucky will not need to sweep that slate to reach a bowl game.

Given the middling results outside the top tier of SEC teams this season, the range of possible bowl destinations for Kentucky remains wide. How quickly quarterback Sawyer Smith can regain his health and form or whether the offense with Lynn Bowden at quarterback can prove to be more than a one-week success story will say much about the eventual postseason destination.

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Here’s a closer look at what Kentucky is playing for in the second half.

Off the board

College Football Playoff

Obviously, Kentucky is not reaching the playoff this season, but how many SEC teams are included in the four-team field will impact the Wildcats’ bowl possibilities. If the season ended today, both No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 LSU would likely be in the playoff. Those teams will face each other on Nov. 9, but even the loser might still be able to make the field if that is its only loss at the end of the regular season and the winner makes it through the SEC title game undefeated.

Georgia and Florida remain in the playoff hunt but would likely need to win out to be selected. Their Nov. 2 matchup looks like a playoff elimination game.

Sugar Bowl

The highest-ranked SEC team not in the playoff will go to the Sugar Bowl. The league’s Sugar Bowl representative is likely to come from the group above.

Orange or Cotton Bowls

The SEC could place another team in the New Year’s Six Bowls depending on how the final CFP rankings fall. One Orange Bowl slot will go to highest ranked of the non-champions from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame. As of today, that slot would go to Penn State, based on the coaches’ poll, but Florida, Georgia and Auburn are all within reach of that spot. One Cotton Bowl spot will go to highest-ranked remaining team from any conference.

Citrus Bowl

The Citrus Bowl has first pick of the available SEC teams after the playoff committee fills the New Year’s Six bowls. Kentucky reached this spot last season with nine wins. The Wildcats would need to win out, upsetting Georgia and Missouri along the way to reach that plateau again. Technically possible, but highly unlikely.

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The most likely options

Pool of Six

After the Citrus Bowl makes its selection, the SEC assigns teams to its next tier of bowl games (Outback, Texas, Gator, Music City, Liberty and Belk) based on a number of factors, including matchups and avoiding repeat trips.

If the second half of the season plays out according to script and at least three league teams reach the New Year’s Six bowls, it seems unlikely the SEC will have enough bowl eligible teams to fill all six of its contracted spots in the pool of six. That is good news for Kentucky. Even at six wins, the Wildcats could be placed in a higher-profile bowl that one might expect because of lack of other appealing options.

No SEC team has appeared in the same Pool of Six bowl twice since the SEC adopted its current bowl selection process for the 2014 season. That means the Gator and Music City Bowls are unlikely destinations. The Liberty and Belk Bowls seem like the safest projections for Kentucky.

Other possibilities

Birmingham Bowl

If the SEC is able to fill its Pool of Six bowls, the Birmingham Bowl has next pick of the available SEC teams. For that to happen, the NCAA probably needs to overturn Missouri’s bowl ban or enough of the top tier teams to stumble down the stretch for the league to only send two teams to the New Year’s Six.

If one of those scenarios happen, Kentucky could slide out of the Pool of Six in a 6-6 season. The good news is Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Tennessee face uphill climbs to reach bowl eligibility. Like Kentucky, South Carolina and Mississippi State also face a thin margin of error in the second half, needing three more wins for bowl eligibility.

Independence Bowl

In the unlikely event the SEC has another bowl eligible team available after the Birmingham Bowl makes its selection, the Independence Bowl has a contracted SEC slot.

Courier Journal SEC Bowl Projections

Peach Bowl (Dec. 28, Atlanta) — Alabama

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 28, Phoenix) — LSU

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1, New Orleans) — Florida

Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1, Orlando) — Georgia

Gator Bowl (Jan. 2, Jacksonville) — Auburn

Outback Bowl (Jan. 1, Tampa) — Texas A&M

Belk Bowl (Dec. 31, Charlotte) — Kentucky

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, Nashville) — South Carolina

Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, Houston) — Mississippi State

Jon Hale:jahale@courier-journal.com; Twitter:@JonHale_CJ. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today:courier-journal.com/jonh.