How Louisville basketball can pull off the ultimate upset of Duke

Courier Journal

When: 9 p.m. Tuesday
Where: KFC Yum Center
TV: ESPN Radio: 790-WKRD

There's no mincing words: Saturday's overtime loss at Florida State was a cutting one for Louisville basketball.

“The same things that we pride ourselves on is what got us beat,” guard Christen Cunningham said. “Not turning the ball over. Being tough with the ball. Rebounding. Being the tougher team. It's a super tough loss for us.”

It's now a matter of swift course correction before Louisville (17-7, 8-3 ACC) hosts Atlantic Coast Conference top dog Duke (21-2, 9-1) on Tuesday in a highly anticipated battle at the KFC Yum Center.

Duke and its three-headed scoring monster of Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish rank second in the country in scoring margin (21.3) and are No.1 in Ken Pomeroy's college basketball ratings following an 81-71 win over Virginia on Saturday.

Louisville is 2-2 at home this season versus ranked opponents, the last victory coming Jan. 24 against NC State. It's worth noting that the Cardinals won the last two times they welcomed the Blue Devils to the Yum Center on Jan. 14, 2017 and Feb. 20, 2016.

Beating Duke on Tuesday would be the ultimate upset and could vault Louisville from a projected No. 4 seed to a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Here are three keys for a Louisville win:

Watch for foul trouble

This one goes both ways.

Louisville big men Malik Williams and Steven Enoch both fouled out in overtime against Florida State. In the first half of regulation, Enoch picked up three fouls in eight minutes and was limited to six minutes for the remainder of the game. Williams, meanwhile, never scored in the paint.

That can't happen against Duke, which averages 38.2 paint points in ACC play and will demand all of Louisville's size and effort to limit Williamson (21.8 ppg, 2.0 bpg) on the interior.

Williamson, a 6-foot-7, 265-pound forward, has fouled out just once this season and hasn't been whistled more than twice in the last four games. Reddish and Barrett have occasionally found themselves in foul trouble but played through unbothered.

The Blue Devil starters have been so reliable that they pretty much use a seven-man rotation. But if Louisville draws fouls and forces them to go to their bench earlier and more often, Duke will be significantly weakened.

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Don't underestimate 3-point shooting

Prior to Saturday, Duke's 3-point field goal percentage (30.8) didn't even crack the top 300 in Division I hoops. Then the Blue Devils shot 61.9 percent from beyond the arc against Virginia, by far its best clip of the season.

Was that night just an anomaly, or a true glimpse at what Duke is capable of? Either way, Louisville can't afford to take a chance. Reddish went 5 of 8 against Virginia and is the best long-range shooter (35.3 percent) of the Blue Devils' seven main contributors, while Barrett was 6 of 10.

Louisville is holding opponents' 3-point shooting to 32.4 percent this season and has allowed double-figure 3-pointers just twice in ACC play (10 vs. Miami, 12 vs. NC State). The Cardinals need to hold strong Tuesday.

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Take care of the ball

A season-high 23 turnovers were a large part of Louisville's downfall a Florida State,and Duke forces 16 opponent turnovers per game. The Blue Devils defense ranks No. 1 in the country in both steal percentage and block percentage.

Point guard Tre Jones is just as vital a part of Duke's defense as the big three mentioned above. He spearheads the effort to pressure the ball and overplay passing lanes, which is exactly what Florida State did to unseat Louisville.

The Cardinals have been a good team all season when they don't shoot themselves in the foot, and making the Blue Devils defense do the work instead of giving the ball away is undoubtedly a better game plan.

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Danielle Lerner: 502-582-4042; dlerner@courierjournal.com; Twitter: @Danielle_Lerner. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/daniellel.

LOUISVILLE VS. DUKE

9 p.m. Tuesday, KFC Yum Center

TV: ESPN Radio: 790-WKRD