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Julián Castro, Beto O’Rourke struggle to gain Nevada traction as critical debate approaches

The Texans see early contest state as critical to presidential hopes

NORTH LAS VEGAS — In a medium-sized room tucked away in the corner of a community center, Beto O’Rourke made his pitch to about 30 Nevada voters.

The scene was starkly different than in February, when O’Rourke, near the top of the presidential polls, had to push his way through large, excited crowds at a taco diner and coffee shop. But months later, most of the folks at the community center were there for youth football or cheerleader practice.

On the October night that O’Rourke campaigned in North Las Vegas, Julián Castro had to cancel an appearance at a rally near the Las Vegas strip because of a cold. The former San Antonio mayor and former Housing Secretary is also struggling to break through in a state critical to his presidential aspirations. He has campaigned in Nevada more than any of his rivals.

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An average of polls collected by Real Clear Politics show former Vice President Joe Biden with a small lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. O’Rourke and Castro tied for last place, barely registering. A March Emerson College poll, around the time O’Rourke announced his candidacy for president, had the former congressman from El Paso tied with Warren for third place at 10 percent.

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“I just don’t think they’re getting any traction,” said Mark Stufflebeam, president of the Henderson Democratic Club in Nevada. “The polls are pretty close, but for the Big Three.”

The top three contenders in Nevada are also Biden, Warren and Sanders. Warren, according to Democrats on the ground, has the stoutest organization in the critical caucus state.

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Castro and O’Rourke have made winning Nevada key to their plans to capture the Democratic nomination for president. The Silver State, the most diverse state in the early contest process, will hold caucuses in February.

If they don’t perform well in a western state with demographics similar to Texas, it could thwart their effort to climb into serious contention. And neither of the Texans have met the requirements to get into November’s Democratic presidential debate in Georgia; a failure to qualify would likely doom their candidacies.

The situation is especially urgent for Castro, the only Hispanic candidate in the race. He’s banking on a strong turnout from Latino and LatinX voters.

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Hispanics are 28 percent of the Democratic vote in Nevada. African Americans compose 14 percent, while the fastest growing Democratic voter group is the Asian/Pacific Islander population, which makes up 11 percent of the vote.

“At this point, that just doesn’t seem to make a difference,” Stufflebeam said of Castro’s appeal to minority voters..

But there is slim hope that the Texans can make a stand.

Most Nevada Democrats don’t believe the polls, few in number, reflect what’s occurring on the ground or what the outcome will be in February. They say there’s still an opportunity for someone other than Biden, Warren and Sanders to do well.

What’s more, polls sometimes fail to capture younger or minority voters, which can lead to an unpredictable result.

O’Rourke and Castro will try to make splashes at Tuesday’s debate in Ohio, perhaps one of the final opportunities to climb back into contention before the early primary contests begin.

Nevada Democrats will be watching.

“A lot of people are still undecided,” said Donna West, chairperson of the Clark County Democratic Party. “The lower tier is hard at work trying to earn voters…O’Rourke and Castro both have staffs on the ground. Castro has invested a lot of time here.”

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West said hard work could make a difference.

“Our voters want to talk about the ideas and the candidate platforms,” she said. “They are different shades of gray on the issues.”

Push from Hispanic voters

Castro has campaigned in Nevada more than any other presidential contender. On Friday he made his 10th appearance in the state and was scheduled to participate in the Las Vegas Pride Festival.

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Earlier in the week his campaign manager, Maya Rupert, hit the trail there.

Castro has held town hall meetings, house parties and discussions on the stump covering a range of issues, including immigration reform, affordable housing and education.

“We feel a lot of energy in Nevada,” said Rep. Joaquin Castro, Julián’s twin brother and National chairman of his presidential campaign. “He’s met a lot of people and spent a lot of time and work there.”

Joaquin Castro said he expected his brother to benefit from support not captured in polling, and to have a good enough organization to prevail in caucuses, which involved getting supporters to go to a location and stand for the candidate.

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“That’s why Castro has a little more juice here,” said Steve Horner, chairman of the Southern Nevada Educator’s Caucus.

For this election Nevada is also having an early vote period before the caucuses begin, which Castro hopes will result in more voters in the process.

After next week’s debate he’s scheduled to return to Nevada to deliver a caucus plan. And he’s hopeful to get support from members of various unions, including the powerful culinary workers. That group is composed heavily of Hispanic and African-American members.

Elizabeth Becker, a Democrat who earlier this month heard Castro speak at a gun violence prevention forum in Las Vegas, said she hoped the Texan remains in the race.

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“I really enjoyed Julian Castro,” she said. “I would really enjoy seeing him on the ticket, even if it’s not the top of the ticket.”

Searching for Betomania

For his part, O’Rourke is trying to recapture the appeal the made him popular early not only in Nevada but across the country.

When he launched his campaign in March, Nevada Democrats appeared enthusiastic about his prospects. Since then, O’Rourke has dropped in the polls, and he’s made only four visits to the state.

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One August appearance was on the day of the El Paso mass shooting that killed 22 people, and he left for his hometown shortly after his remarks.

Parts of Nevada look a lot like El Paso, and O’Rourke often talks about the similarities of the areas during his campaign stops.

El Paso and Las Vegas, unfortunately, are also bound by recent gun violence.

Since the El Paso shooting, O’Rourke has been looking for support off the beaten path, which explains his visit to North Las Vegas.

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He’s been to black churches and held town hall meetings in English and Spanish. Campaign aides say he’s appealing to the LatinX population by not just talking about immigration reform, but economic and criminal justice issues that impact all communities of color.

“I saw him when he was running for senator. He’s fantastic,” said Cynthia Burnett, a Las Vegas resident nearing retirement from working for a gaming and hotel company. “I worry because his poll numbers are so low.”

In Nevada and other places, O’Rourke is a victim of his 2018 campaign against Ted Cruz, which thrilled voters and gave Texas Democrats hope that next year they’ll win their first statewide race since 1994.

Gloria Corden, a retiree from Las Vegas, said O’Rourke could have a choice to make.

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“I would love for Beto, if his numbers don’t improve, to run for Senate,” she said.

O’Rourke has firmly stated that he’s in the presidential race until the end.

Despite the low polling, he’s still intriguing to some Nevada voters.

Jay Lamont, a retired New York police officer, came to North Las Vegas to hear him speak. But he and his wife left the community center because O’Rourke was nearly an hour late.

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“I wanted to see what he was all about,” Lamont said. “I’m disappointed. They should have been more organized.”

O’Rourke told the modest crowd that he needed their support.

Marina Negroponte, O’Rourke’s state campaign director, smiled as she handed out “Nevada for Beto” buttons.

“It’s an uphill fight, but we’re having fun,” she said.