Iowa Poll: More than a third of Iowans say decision-making in Trump White House is 'not normal or safe'

© Copyright 2018, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

More than three-fourths of Iowans say they are concerned about the way decisions are being made in the White House, and a plurality say they are convinced what is happening “is not normal or safe,” a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Seventeen percent of Iowans say they are convinced everything is normal and safe, 24 percent say they have some concerns and 16 percent say they have a lot of concerns. The largest share — 36 percent — say they are convinced what is happening is not normal and safe. Seven percent are unsure.

“I really don’t think it’s normal and safe,” said Sherry Butenhoff, a Republican and a 65-year-old Marble Rock resident. “I’m not real sure how to define ‘normal’ at this point.”

Butenhoff is among the 55 percent of people who voted for President Donald Trump who say they have some level of concern about the way decisions are being made in the White House. But she said her concerns are less about Trump — she’d vote for him all over again, she said — and more about “all the backstabbing and the leaking” coming from within the White House.

“I do know that just from interviews and things that I have seen on TV and read in the papers, that certain people have been flat-out undermining him," she said.

The poll, which was conducted by Selzer and Co. Sept. 17-20, sampled 801 Iowa adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions based on the 2018 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Although the poll shows Trump is unpopular across most demographics — just 39 percent of Iowa adults say they approve of the job he’s doing — Republicans are still largely supportive.

Eighty-three percent of Iowa Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, compared with 35 percent of independents and 4 percent of Democrats. 

Poll follows tumultuous news cycles

The poll was conducted shortly after a pair of accounts were made public describing a White House in turmoil.

In early September, famed journalist Bob Woodward released a new book describing a “nervous breakdown” of the executive branch — one in which senior officials admitted to taking papers off Trump’s desk to prevent him from seeing or signing them.

That book’s release also coincided with an anonymous op-ed in the New York Times that similarly describes acts by senior staff to thwart some of Trump’s “more misguided impulses until he is out of office.”

“That kind of stuff isn’t normal,” said Don Brayman, a 60-year-old Council Bluffs resident and a political independent. “When you have people on the inside trying to tell you that something’s wrong, we really ought to sit back and listen to it.”

Brayman is particularly concerned about the antagonizing tone Trump has taken with other nations.

“That’s what they call saber-rattling,” he said. “That’s the last thing we need. I grew up in the Cold War. I grew up in the '60s and '70s. I don’t want to go through that again.”

The poll also comes in the midst of an international trade war that disproportionately affects Iowa farmers. One recent report shows Iowa farmers and manufacturers stand to lose up to $2.2 billion as a result.

“There are a lot of reasons Trump is unpopular in Iowa, and I think the first three are: trade, trade and trade,” said Jennifer Duffy, an elections analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “I can see that being a drag on Republicans across the board.”

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Iowa Republican leaders have tried to strike a balance with the White House on trade — acknowledging that farmers are feeling anxious about the effects of a trade war on their bottom lines without going so far as to alienate Trump.

Fifty-two percent of Republican voters, though, say it makes no difference to them whether an Iowa candidate supports the president. Forty-two percent say it would make them more likely to support the candidate. Just 5 percent say it would make them less likely to support the candidate.

Among independent voters, 48 percent say it would make no difference, but 39 percent say it would make them less likely to support the candidate. Twelve percent say it would make them more likely to support the candidate, and 1 percent aren't sure.

Debbie Mistereck, a 66-year-old Newton resident and a political independent, said she wrote in a presidential candidate in 2016 but has warmed to Trump since he took office. She said she’s not concerned whether candidates align themselves with Trump, but she might think twice if they went too far in criticizing him.

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“I don’t vote based on that,” she said. “Unless they would stand up and say, ‘Oh, I’m going to impeach that son of a gun.’ And I’d say, ‘Based on what?’”

A majority of Iowans — 55 percent — say things are on the wrong track nationally, up six points since January. The percentage of Iowans saying the nation is headed in the right direction has fallen from 40 percent to 34 percent during the same time frame.

Job approval remains underwater

Trump’s job approval numbers with Iowans have been underwater, meaning more people disapprove of his performance than approve, since he took office in January 2017.

Since January of this year, the percentage of those who now say they approve of the president has fallen five points to 39 percent, while the percentage of those who disapprove has risen by the same amount to 56 percent. Five percent are unsure.

“He plays to his base, and he forgets he’s the president of the United States and not the president of the Republican Party,” said Nick Streng, a 40-year-old Democrat from Cedar Rapids.

Although Trump is generally unpopular in the state, he still holds broad support among Republicans with 83 percent approving. And among those who say they voted for him in 2016, 85 percent say they approve of the job Trump is doing.

“I think he’s doing an excellent job,” said Butenhoff. “And I think he could do an even better job if there wasn’t so much disruption and distraction.”

Trump also has maintained support with his base.

About one-third say they have supported Trump at some point since 2015 and still support him as much as they ever have; 9 percent say they support him but not as much as they once did. Just 3 percent say they once supported him but do not now.

Fifty-four percent say they’ve never supported Trump and 4 percent are unsure.

The percentage of Iowans who view the president favorably or unfavorably tracks closely with his job approval numbers. Forty-one percent view him favorably, and 56 percent view him unfavorably. Favorable views are down 3 percentage points and unfavorable views up 4 percentage points since January.

Trump is more popular among men, with 49 percent viewing him favorably compared with 34 percent of women. He also is popular with evangelicals — 58 percent view him favorably, along with 50 percent of Protestants and 43 percent of Catholics.

Eighty percent of Reynolds’ supporters say they view the president favorably and 78 percent approve of the job he’s doing.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 17-20 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election for governor and other offices. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. Questions based on likely voters in the 2018 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Methodology for this Iowa Poll