HIGH SCHOOL

Iowa high school football: Breaking down the RPI rankings entering Week 9

Cody Goodwin
The Des Moines Register

In the years before the Iowa High School Athletic Association implemented the RPI system to help form the high school football playoffs, we’d take this space to break down every single playoff scenario entering the final week of the regular season.

But it is impossible to predict how all the math will break and affect other teams in each class. So instead, we looked at the current RPI rankings, and explain which games could have an impact on where certain teams might finish.

Remember: All district champs earn automatic playoff berths. Any two-way ties are decided on head-to-head results. Any true three-way ties (in other words, if head-to-head tiebreakers don't produce a result) are decided through the RPI — or ratings percentage index. The remaining at-large qualifiers will come via the RPI.

The formula includes three parts: a team’s overall win-loss record, accounting for 37.5 percent; a team’s opponents’ win-loss record, also accounting for 37.5 percent; and a team’s opponent’s opponents’ win-loss record, which accounts for the remaining 25 percent.

Here, we’ll list the top 16 teams in each class, along with their overall records and RPI percentages. Current district leaders are in bold.

CLASS 4A

  1. W.D.M. Valley, 8-0, .7037 (District 7)
  2. Cedar Falls, 8-0, .6971 (District 3)
  3. Ankeny Centennial, 7-1, .6780 (District 2)
  4. Dowling Catholic, 7-1, .6694 (District 1)
  5. Cedar Rapids Kennedy, 7-1, .6476 (District 5)
  6. Southeast Polk, 6-2, .6236
  7. Cedar Rapids Prairie, 6-2, .6186 (District 3)
  8. Des Moines Roosevelt, 6-2, .5891
  9. Linn-Mar, 6-2, .5872 (District 4)
  10. Ankeny, 5-3, .5866
  11. Bettendorf, 6-2, .5781
  12. Waukee, 5-3, .5729 (District 6)
  13. Dubuque Senior, 5-3, .5664
  14. Sioux City East, 6-2, .5644
  15. Fort Dodge, 5-3, .5540
  16. Urbandale, 5-3, .5480

Next Four

  • 17. Johnston, 5-3, .5276
  • 18. Marshalltown, 5-3, .5174
  • 19. Indianola, 5-3, .5172
  • 20. Davenport North, 5-3, .5108

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • none

Analysis: Now that the districts are mostly decided — Cedar Falls and Cedar Rapids Prairie play this week for the District 3 title, and we’ll touch on District 6 below — Week 9 is full of games that will affect the final playoff picture.

The Johnston-Waukee and Indianola-Des Moines East contests are worth watching. Waukee can win District 6 outright, but a Johnston win forces a true three-way tiebreaker between those two teams and Indianola that’ll be decided by the RPI. Indianola could also sneak in with a win and some help — which, yes, could come.

Marshalltown plays Fort Dodge in a virtual play-in game. Urbandale plays Ames in what’s become a play-in game for the J-Hawks. Sioux City East plays Ankeny and will likely have to win or risk leaving its fate to the math. Dubuque Senior also plays Cedar Rapids Jefferson in another win-and-stay-in game.

A lot still in play this Friday. Should be fun.

Waukee's Sam O'Dell (16), center, takes a celebratory leap after catching a pass on Aug. 30 at Valley Stadium.

CLASS 3A

  1. Solon, 8-0, .6914 (District 6)
  2. Western Dubuque, 8-0, .6854 (District 4)
  3. Lewis Central, 7-1, .6786 (District 9)
  4. Sergeant Bluff-Luton, 7-1, .6777 (District 1)
  5. Norwalk, 7-1, .6694 (District 8)
  6. Cedar Rapids Xavier, 7-1, .6622
  7. Pella, 6-2, .6433 (District 7)
  8. Harlan, 6-2, .6406
  9. North Scott, 7-1, .6393 (District 5)
  10. Independence, 8-0, .6389 (District 3)
  11. Dallas Center-Grimes, 7-1, .6386 (District 2)
  12. Glenwood, 6-2, .6304
  13. Carlisle, 6-2, .6188
  14. Washington, 6-2, .6175
  15. Mount Pleasant, 6-2, .5957
  16. Iowa City Liberty, 6-2, .5901

Next Four

  • 17. Davenport Assumption, 5-3, .5818
  • 18. Grinnell, 6-2, .5774
  • 19. Oskaloosa, 5-3, .5667
  • 20. ADM, Adel, 5-3, .5602

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • Carroll, 5-3 overall, 4-0 in District 2, 24th in RPI (.5407)

Analysis: Independence-Decorah, DCG-Carroll, Pella-Grinnell and North Scott-Assumption are all, in some variation, district title games. Independence-Decorah and DCG-Carroll are straight-up, winner-takes-it contests, an especially big scenario for Carroll and Decorah, who are both outside the top 20 in the RPI.

If Grinnell and Assumption both win, that could force a three-way tie in both districts — Grinnell with Pella and Oskaloosa, and Assumption with North Scott and Iowa City Liberty (assuming both Oskaloosa and Liberty win).

The other games to follow here are Lewis Central-ADM, both for ADM’s wildcard hopes and Lewis Central’s title hopes (it’s currently tied with Glenwood and Harlan, who play Creston and Winterset, respectively). Mount Pleasant also plays Washington in a battle of bubble teams. Carlisle must beat Bondurant-Farrar to maintain its favorable playoff position, too.

Norwalk's Zach Marker (11) rushes during their football game on Friday, Oct. 11, 2019 in Norwalk. Norwalk takes a 24-3 lead into halftime.

► MORE HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FROM THE DES MOINES REGISTER

  • WEEK 9 RANKINGS: Class-by-Class | Super 10
  • WEEK 9 STAT LEADERS: Breaking down the state's best after Week 8
  • WEEK 9 PICK 'EM: Cast your votes here!
  • LOOKING BACK: 18 things we learned from Week 8

CLASS 2A

  1. Waukon, 8-0, .6958 (District 4)
  2. Algona, 8-0, .6630 (District 2)
  3. Clear Lake, 8-0, .6613 (District 3)
  4. OABCIG, 8-0, .6431 (District 9)
  5. Waterloo Columbus, 7-1, .6426
  6. Greene County, 8-0, .6244 (District 9)
  7. Tipton, 6-2, .6036 (District 5)
  8. Iowa Falls-Alden, 6-2, .6020
  9. Monticello, 6-2, .6007
  10. Benton, 7-1, .5970 (District 7)
  11. West Liberty, 5-3, .5837
  12. Garner-Hayfield-Ventura, 5-3, .5818
  13. PCM, Monroe, 6-2, .5716
  14. Southeast Valley, 5-3, .5716
  15. Des Moines Christian, 7-1, .5710 (District 8)
  16. Williamsburg, 5-3, .5608 (District 6)

Next Four

  • 17. West Marshall, 5-3, .5598 (District 7)
  • 18. Nevada, 6-2, .5556 (District 7)
  • 19. Spirit Lake, 5-3, .5548
  • 20. Sioux Center, 5-3, .5476

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • Central Lyon/George-Little Rock, 4-4 overall, 4-0 in District 1, 22nd in RPI (.5208)

Analysis: Central Lyon is in line to steal a playoff bid by virtue of finishing outside the top 16. Three other games — OABCIG-Greene County, Tipton-West Liberty, and Clear Lake-Iowa Falls-Alden — will decide district champs.

From there, it gets a little crazy.

Benton, West Marshall and Nevada are in a true three-way tie in District 7. If they all win this week, Benton should take it based on highest RPI. Des Moines Christian, PCM and Centerville are tied atop District 8, too, but Christian has wins over both. If the Lions win this week, they win the district. Lose, and the PCM-Centerville winner grabs the automatic berth.

West Marshall-Union, Nevada-Roland Story, Spirit Lake-GHV, Sioux Center-Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley, Southeast Valley-Algona, and Monticello-Waterloo Columbus could all have major ripple effects on how the wild cards are decided.

PCM head coach Greg Bonnett lets his team celebrate after the Mustangs defeated Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley 28-7 to win the class 2A state championship football game on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018, in Cedar Falls.

CLASS 1A

  1. Van Meter, 8-0, .7250 (District 8)
  2. West Branch, 8-0, .6985 (District 4)
  3. Western Christian, 8-0, .6954 (District 1)
  4. West Sioux, 7-1, .6869
  5. Dike-New Hartford, 8-0, .6815 (District 6)
  6. Iowa City Regina, 7-1, .6694 (District 6)
  7. West Lyon, 7-1, .6644
  8. Panorama, 7-1, .6583
  9. South Central Calhoun, 8-0, .6563 (District 2)
  10. Underwood, 7-1, .6474
  11. Treynor, 8-0, .6427 (District 9)
  12. Mount Ayr, 6-2, .6233
  13. ACGC, 6-2, .6188
  14. Sigourney-Keota, 8-0, .6134 (District 5)
  15. North Linn, 6-2, .5816
  16. Mediapolis, 7-1, .5755 (District 5)

Next Four

  • 17. Aplington-Parkersburg, 5-3, .5615
  • 18. Unity Christian, 4-4, .5586
  • 19. South Hardin, 5-3, .5538
  • 20. Clarinda, 5-3, .5528

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • Osage, 4-4 overall, 4-0 in District 3, 21st in RPI (.5419)
  • Pella Christian, 4-4 overall, 4-0 in District 7, 25th in RPI (.5318)

Analysis: Sigourney-Keota plays Mediapolis for the District 5 title (which also carries wild-card implications, since they’re at 14 and 16, respectively), and Dike-New Hartford plays Iowa City Regina for District 6. 

Western Christian-West Lyon, South Central Calhoun-Pocahontas Area, Osage-Aplington-Parkersburg and Pella Christian-Interstate 35 all have district implications. If Western Christian, South Central Calhoun, Osage and Pella Christian all win, they all win their respective districts.

If the others win, true three-way ties in each district take effect. Seriously.

Elsewhere, South Hardin-North Linn, ACGC-Mount Ayr, Unity Christian-Sibley Ocheyedan and Van Meter-Clarinda could all have impact on the wild-card scenarios. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Osage could jump into the top 16 with a win, too, but Pella Christian appears in line to steal a playoff spot.

CLASS A

  1. West Hancock, 8-0, .6775 (District 3)
  2. North Tama, 8-0, .6443 (District 7)
  3. Saint Ansgar, 8-0, .6437 (District 4)
  4. MFL MarMac, 8-0, .6404 (District 5)
  5. Woodbury Central, 7-1, .6292 (District 10)
  6. BGM, Brooklyn, 7-1, .6260
  7. Grundy Center, 7-1, .6239
  8. Earlham, 7-1, .6099 (District 9)
  9. South O’Brien, 7-1, .5984
  10. Belle Plaine, 6-2, .5903 (District 6)
  11. Hinton, 6-2, .5837 (District 1)
  12. Westwood, Sloan, 6-2, .5712
  13. South Winneshiek, 6-2, .5685
  14. IKM-Manning, 5-3, .5623 (District 2)
  15. Edgewood-Colesburg, 6-2, .5606
  16. Tri-Center, Neola, 5-3, .5552

Next Four

  • 17. LeMars Gehlen, 5-3, .5498
  • 18. Alta-Aurelia, 5-3, .5475
  • 19. Belmond-Klemme, 6-2, .5473
  • 20. Lawton-Bronson, 5-3, .5411

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • Wayne, 6-2 overall, 3-0 in District 8, 23rd in RPI (.5260)
  • Central Decatur, 4-4 overall, 3-0 in District 8, 31st in RPI (.4850)

Analysis: The Wayne-Central Decatur winner could end up stealing a bid. If Hinton and West Hancock beat South O’Brien and Belmond-Klemme, respectively, they’ll win their districts outright. If South O’Brien and Belmond-Klemme win, they’ll force true three-way tiebreakers and throw a wrench into the wild-card scenarios.

The games between Edgewood-Colesburg and Clayton Ridge, Tri-Center and Logan-Magnolia, South Winneshiek and Mason City Newman, LeMars Gehlen and Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn, and Alta-Aurelia and Sioux Center are ones that could affect the wild cards.

8-Player

  1. Turkey Valley, 8-0, .6974 (District 3)
  2. Audubon, 8-1, .6973 (District 8)
  3. Don Bosco, 8-0, .6959 (District 2)
  4. Remsen St. Mary’s, 8-0, .6729 (District 1)
  5. Coon Rapids-Bayard, 7-1, .6634
  6. CAM, Anita, 7-1, .6593
  7. Easton Valley, 7-1, .6301
  8. Fremont-Mills, 5-1, .6270 (District 7)
  9. Lamoni, 7-1, .6157 (District 6)
  10. Montezuma, 6-2, .6122
  11. Harris-Lake Park, 7-1, .6105
  12. HLV, Victor, 6-2, .6092 (District 4)
  13. East Mills, 6-2, .6068
  14. Northwood-Kensett, 6-2, .6006
  15. Gladbrook-Reinbeck, 6-2, .5964 (District 5)
  16. Midland, 6-2, .5880

Next Four

  • 17. New London, 6-2, .5868
  • 18. Rockford, 6-2, .5837
  • 19. Iowa Valley, 5-3, .5772
  • 20. Southeast Warren, 7-2, .5739 (District 6)

District Leaders Outside the Top 20

  • none

Analysis: HLV leads District 4, but a loss, along with a Montezuma win over New London, which is on the bubble, gives the district title to Montezuma. Audubon wins District 8 by beating CAM. The Lamoni-Southeast Warren game will decide District 6, and Southeast Warren likely needs it more.

The Rockford-Northwood-Kensett and Midland-Kee matchups will also likely play a role in the wild-card selections. East Mills is idle this week, so it’ll be interesting to see where they finish. Keep an eye on Springville, too, which plays Central City and is within striking distance at No. 21.

Cody Goodwin covers wrestling and high school sports for the Des Moines Register. Follow him on Twitter at @codygoodwin.

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