The introductory section of our Pac-12 previews is typically reserved for broad topics and trends.
In the Arizona State installment, for instance, we addressed the Sun Devils’ fortuitous schedule.
The need to overcome road woes in order to contend for the conference title (and more) was the focus of Oregon’s preview.
With Oregon State, we’re going granular — not to a statistic but a stat within a stat.
The Beavers had one of the worst turnover margins in major college football last season because they had the fewest number of takeaways in a long, long time.
OSU’s defense caused five fumbles and produced three interceptions — a paltry eight takeaways in 12 games.
That number is tied with Washington State in 2014 for the fewest number of takeaways by a Power Five team this decade.
What happened to the turnover chainsaw, Beavs?
There’s a decent chance opposing offenses would commit eight turnovers simply playing against air over the course of 70+ snaps a game for 12 games.
(Not really, but you get it.)
As we note below, Oregon State has some big issues — talent and resources, to name two — but the small stuff matters, too.
Links to previous installments at bottom.
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
2018 record: 2-10/1-8
Program trending: Up
It would be easy to justify this categorization by the lack of options (i.e., it can’t get any worse), but we genuinely like the path Jonathan Smith is carving. He has made shrewd use of the transfer portal and is steadily filling roster spots with newcomers who are more talented than their predecessors. The road to full recovery is long — programs with small recruiting bases and limited resources require far more rebuilding time — and OSU might not challenge in the North for years (or decades). But through 20 months of the Smith era, the steps are encouraging,
Coach: Jonathan Smith (second year)
Smith’s five-year win total: N/A
Contract status: Signed through 2022
Seat temperature: Chilled to the bone
Complete rebuild for an alumnus whose own boss, athletic director Scott Barnes, has acknowledged the need for increased resources — that’s a recipe for job security. Smith isn’t in danger of dismissal if the Beavers go 2-10 again this season and next. They have too much invested in him and are in need of too much investment. (“A larger focus is on what the football program requires to continue to grow,” Barnes said.) The Hotline typically withholds judgment on a new head coach for three seasons. We’ll give Smith four.
Key staff addition: Blue Adams
Adams is Oregon State’s only staff addition, but he’s well worth mentioning nonetheless. As a former NFL player and assistant coach (for Tampa Bay, under Jon Gruden), Adams should, in theory, enhance recruiting efforts in the secondary. Not that long ago, the Beavers produced a steady churn of NFL-caliber (or all-conference) defensive backs. They could stand to recreate that success, and an ex-pro should help.
Breakout star: Noah Togiai
The two deep includes several transfers with the potential to have a marked impact on OSU; instead, we have selected a returning starter who played in just six games last season and caught only 10 passes. If Togaia stays healthy, he could be one of the toughest tight ends to defend in the conference and a key piece of the Beavers’ third down and red zone packages.
Number crunch: 129
Oregon State’s national ranking last season (out of 130 teams) in three defensive categories: rushing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed per carry, and rushing yards allowed per game. It’s the penultimate trifecta, with only Connecticut keeping OSU from the basement floor. (And if UConn’s your peer in anything except NCAA basketball titles, that’s trouble.) Half of the Beavers’ opponents last season rushed for more than 300 yards.
Pac-12 recruiting ranking 2015-19 (per 247sports): 11-11-11-12-12
Returning all-conference players: running back Jermar Jefferson (honorable mention), receiver Isaiah Hodgins (honorable mention), receiver Trevon Bradford (honorable mention), special teams performance Andre Bodden (honorable mention)
Best-case scenario: The Beavers are crisp and sharp in the opener and stun Oklahoma State to begin an undefeated September, quarterback Jake Luton stays healthy and takes advantage of the skill position talent and a better-than-expected line, the defense is porous but opportunistic and OSU finds a way to win twice in November to snare an improbable bowl berth, earning Smith conference Coach of the Year honors.
Worst-case scenario: A face plant in the opener is followed by a dreary loss in Honolulu as Luton’s mistakes spark calls for a quarterback change, the running game sputters despite its talented tailbacks, the Beavers are forced to play from (far) behind each week as the defense matches its 2018 ineptitude, and no conference opponent is willing to blow a 31-3 third-quarter lead, casting OSU to a winless season against FBS opponents.
Here we go …
Aug. 30: vs Oklahoma StateResult: WinRecord: 1-0Comment: Great opportunity for the better-than-expected Beavers to ambush the unsuspecting, where-the-heck-is-Corvallis? Cowboys. But is it all downhill after Week One for the home team?
Sept. 7: at HawaiiResult: LossRecord: 1-1Comment: Unaccustomed to being the toast of the town, OSU leaves its sense of urgency behind for the long trip and Hawaii’s coaching staff is lying in wait.
Sept. 14: vs. Cal PolyResult: WinRecord: 2-1Comment: OSU beat Southern Utah 48-25 early last season. This is similar.
Sept. 21: OpenResult: N/ARecord: 2-1Comment: With two weeks to prepare and conference play beginning, Smith and Co. dive into the 90 percent of the playbook that has yet to be opened.
Sept. 28: vs. StanfordResult: WinRecord: 3-1/1-0Comment: Ideal situation for an upset with the rested Beavers at home and the Cardinal coming off Northwestern, USC, UCF and Oregon in quadruple-whammy fashion. Don’t forget, an OSU team that finished 1-11 was a fumble away from beating Stanford two years ago.
Oct. 5: at UCLAResult: LossRecord: 3-2/1-1Comment: Same as Week Two: So unaccustomed to success, OSU doesn’t handle it well. Chip Kelly vs. the Beavers for the first time since 2012 is just like Chip Kelly vs. the Beavers in 2012 (48-24).
Oct. 12: vs. UtahResult: LossRecord: 3-3/1-2Comment: Back home, fresh and re-focused, the Beavers … get flattened.
Oct. 19: at CalResult: LossRecord: 3-4/1-3Comment: On the road against an opponent with two weeks to prepare and a stifling defense seems like a less-than-ideal situation for the Beavers.
Oct. 26: OpenResult: N/ARecord: 3-4/1-3Comment: Combine the September highs with the October lows, and OSU enters November needing to win three of five for a bowl berth.
Nov. 2: at ArizonaResult: LossRecord: 3-5/1-4Comment: The key game of the stretch run because of what it could set up. But the Beavers stumble in the final minutes and are left with no path to the postseason.
Nov. 8: vs. WashingtonResult: LossRecord: 3-6/1-5Comment: OSU has two advantages here as the home team on a short week and with Washington coming off a bruiser against Utah. But the Huskies grind out a victory.
Nov. 16: vs. Arizona StateResult: WinRecord: 4-6/2-5Comment: Favorable scheduling for the Beavers, as ASU visits Corvallis between home dates with USC and Oregon. (We won’t call it a Beaver Trap. Swear. We won’t do it.)
Nov. 23: at Washington StateResult: LossRecord: 4-7/2-6Comment: OSU’s defense has given up 108 points to the Air Raid in the past two matchups. Unless there’s snow in the Palouse, we suspect Washington State will get there again … to 54 points, not 108.
Nov. 30: at OregonResult: LossRecord: 4-8/2-7Comment: On the bright side: Four wins is better than two.
*** Previous: Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon
*** Next up: Stanford
Support the Hotline: Several Hotline articles will remain free each month (as will the newsletter), but for access to all content, you’ll need to subscribe. I’ve secured a rate of 16 cents per day for a full year or 21 cents for six months. Click here. And thanks for your loyalty.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
