PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 13: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz is congratulated by Donovan Mitchell ... [+]
The 2019-20 Utah Jazz are coming out of the off-season with a level of hype the organization hasn’t seen in years (possibly decades).
Caesars’ sportsbook puts Utah’s over/under for wins at 53.5, which trails only the Houston Rockets’ 54, the Los Angeles Clippers’ 54, the Milwaukee Bucks’ 57.5 and the Philadelphia 76ers’ 55.
With the NBA as wide open as it has been in years, this team is among a handful that have a legitimate shot at an NBA title.
But is it worth the hype?
Which teams look like contenders, and which look like pretenders? Check out Forbes’ full NBA season preview, with best-case scenarios and worst-case scenarios for all 30 teams.
What’s New
After banking on continuity in the summer of 2018, Utah was eliminated from the following postseason in the first round.
As good as the Jazz had been over the previous two regular seasons (fourth in simple rating system, trailing only the Rockets, Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors), it became clear that the traditional frontcourt of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert would have a hard time lifting a team to legitimate contender status in today’s game.
So Utah set in motion a flurry of moves, trading for Mike Conley in June and trading Favors to the New Orleans Pelicans in July to open up the cap space necessary to sign Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz then used a salary-cap exception to sign Ed Davis and added Jeff Green and Emmanuel Mudiay on minimum deals.
In the end, seven of Utah’s top 12 in 2018-19 wins over replacement player are now on other rosters. Core pieces like Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles are still around, but the rest of the cast is drastically different.
Best Addition: Bogdanovic and Davis both have a shot to have hugely positive impacts on the Jazz this season. Bogdanovic’s shooting and playmaking from the 4 instantly modernizes the Jazz. And Davis can provide a facsimile of a lot of Favors’ contributions over the years.
But the answer here is Conley. The upgrade from Rubio, who was a solid leader and above-average point guard, to Conley is massive.
Here are the numbers from both over the last three seasons:
- Conley: 23.6 PTS, 7.1 AST, 3.9 REB, 2.7 3P, 2.3 TOV, 1.5 STL per 75 possessions, +2.5 relative true shooting percentage, +4.1 box plus/minus (17th leaguewide), +1.9 net rating (+7.1 swing)
- Rubio: 15.2 PTS, 8.5 AST, 5.1 REB, 1.3 3P, 3.3 TOV, 1.9 STL per 75 possessions, -2.4 relative true shooting percentage, +0.9 box plus/minus (57th leaguewide), +2.9 net rating (+0.4 swing)
Having a point guard who demands defensive attention on the perimeter should do wonders for the rest of the roster. Teams will no longer be able to pack the paint when defending the Jazz, which will open up driving and rolling lanes for Mitchell and Gobert.
Biggest Loss: Utah’s net rating may have been 1.1 points better when Favors was off the floor over the last three seasons, but that has more to do with fit than ability.
Favors was 20th in box plus/minus and ninth in win shares per 48 minutes last season. He was a starting-caliber center who accepted a unique role to start at power forward and play the bulk of his minutes as a backup 5.
According to PBP Stats, he averaged 20.0 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 75 possessions, with a 64.3 true shooting percentage, when he was on the floor without Gobert.
Again, fit was a problem. But the Jazz will miss Favors for his ability on the floor and his leadership off of it.
What’s Coming
Utah will now put a modern offense on the floor, without necessarily sacrificing its defensive identity.
Last season, in nearly 1,000 possessions, Utah allowed just 102.9 points per 100 possessions (97th percentile) when Gobert was on the floor without Favors and Jae Crowder. The plus-12.5 net rating of those alignments was also in the 97th percentile.
Surrounding Gobert with multiple switchy defenders who can also shoot and create on the other end brings the Jazz into basketball’s 21st century.
The offensive upgrades make Utah exponentially less predictable. When Conley, Mitchell, Bogdanovic and Ingles are on the floor, defenses won’t be able to crowd Gobert’s rolls to the rim. Driving lanes will be open for Conley, Mitchell and Bogdanovic.
There will be plenty of possessions where the inverse happens, as well. Gobert and the slashers putting pressure on the rim will create valuable extra time for catch-and-shoot outlets.
Defenders will be forced to choose whether to give up looks at the rim or threes. With the personnel Utah now has, that’s a tough choice.
Team MVP: As has been the case for each of the past five seasons, Gobert will be Utah’s most valuable player.
Over that stretch, Gobert has about twice as many wins over replacement player as Favors and Gordon Hayward (tied for second).
His defense is a game-changing, identity-setting force. He is to that end of the floor as Stephen Curry is to the other (though not quite to the same extent).
Best Value: Having Davis on a sub-$5 million salary is a steal. He finished second in the NBA in defensive real plus-minus last season and will have a strong argument to be the league’s best backup center in 2019-20.
X-Factor: Utah has two positionless wing/forwards off the bench who can each be one slash for the X in X-Factor.
Dante Exum and Royce O’Neale can guard multiple positions. Exum can get to the rim at will. O’Neale can knock down threes.
If Exum can stay healthy and O’Neale can continue his upward trajectory, the Jazz might have a strong bench to backup the stellar starting five.
Best-Case Scenario
It’s tough to predict this, with how loaded the West is, but Utah has a talented and balanced-enough roster to not only finish first in the West, but to win an NBA title.
Worst-Case Scenario
If the defense takes a dive and the injury bug creeps in, the Jazz could fall into a bunch of teams jockeying for position in the West’s 7-12 range.
Being in that group from 1 to 6 feels much more likely, though.
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