Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) and forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) talk in the first half of ... [+]
The 2019-20 season is the first step in the evolution of the Memphis Grizzlies franchise. This process started last year when Jaren Jackson Jr. was picked fourth overall and became the center of what’s next. It continued when Marc Gasol was traded to the Raptors, when Ja Morant was taken No. 2 overall in June and when Mike Conley was traded to the Jazz on July 6.
The process was given shape, too, when Taylor Jenkins was hired as the team’s new coach. Jenkins breaks the mold of who the Grizzlies have hired in their Grit N’ Grind era, from Lionel Hollins to Dave Joerger to David Fizdale to J.B. Bickerstaff. Sans Fizdale, who was an offensive minded hire that didn’t mesh with Gasol and company, every coach on that list was defense first. Jenkins — an ex-Bucks assistant under Mike Budenholzer — is going to take Memphis to the modern age on offense. It will take time to fully realize itself, but it’s coming. The process has started.
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What’s New
The key to all of this is the Morant-Jackson pairing. Every pick-and-roll they run will be must-watch, especially as the chemistry improves over the course of the season. Morant’s already a skilled passer who is a good fit for Jenkins’ spaced offense. Jackson is a skilled, fluid big who only scratched the surface of his two-way talent before having his season ended early this year. If both players thrive this year, that’s all that really matters for the Grizzlies in 2020-21 and beyond. And if Brandon Clarke, the team’s second first-round pick this year hits too, then Memphis already has three members of its core locked in.
Among other teams with young cores, very few others can say that. The list can probably be tallied on one hand — Grizzlies, Pelicans, Hawks, maybe more if some teams unexpectedly hit.
Around the core, the Grizzlies have a number of curiosities to monitor. There’s Josh Jackson, the former No. 2 overall pick dumped onto Memphis this summer amid an underwhelming start to his career and a slew off-court issues. He’s going to start the season in the G-League with the Memphis Hustle and is going to have to earn a shot with the Grizzlies proper. It seems highly unlikely he’ll have his $8.9 million option for the 2020-21 season picked up, so this might be his last chance (or one of his last chances) at sticking in the NBA.
There are others, too. Marko Guduric, a 24-year-old Serbian wing signed this summer, is putting up good numbers so far in the preseason. If he hits in the NBA, he’s a really interesting shooter and and secondary creator alongside Morant. That’s a key role in Jenkins’ system — think about how valuable Malcolm Brogdon was last year.
Then there’s De’Antony Melton, another player acquired from the Suns this summer. He’s currently out with a back injury, but he’s a 6’4” guard with a 6’8” wingspan.Melton’s rookie year numbers aren’t super encouraging, but there’s outline of a useful player there. Maybe Grayson Allen can turn into anything too. Even if half of these players hit, that’s win.
Memphis, outside of its young talent, has some other pieces to play with. Tyus Jones is solid backup/mentor for Morant, although it’s hard to see them being able to play together if defense matters to Jenkins at all.
Best Addition: Memphis, outside of its young talent, has some other pieces to play with. Tyus Jones is solid backup/mentor for Morant, although it’s hard to see them being able to play together if defense matters to Jenkins at all.
Morant is the real answer here, but aside from him, it’s Jones. He’s turned into a solid NBA player and he can be a young veteran-type for the Grizzlies over the next few years. He also should help Jenkins’ offense continue to flow when Morant sits.
Biggest Loss: The answer here is easy: Mike Conley. Morant might end up being great, but Conley was an institution. There’s no way to really replace his defense and his leadership, even it was the right move to trade him and move to the Morant era. Conley’s absence will be felt.
What’s Coming
All of that, though, is a side show to the Morant-Jackson show. They are in place to be the new Conley and Gasol, the evolved successors to Grit N’ Grind. Their task is to usher in a new era of Grizzlies basketball. It just doesn’t have to happen all at once or right now. Evolution takes time.
Kyle Anderson and Dillon Brooks (currently a starter) are both decent players who are looking to make up for their injury-plagued 2018-19 season. Jonas Valanciunas should do useful Jonas Valanciunas whether he starts or not; it’s unclear if Jenkins will want to play him with Jaren Jackson Jr. for a meaningful chunk of time.
And there’s a whole slew of players — Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Andre Igudodala, Miles Plumlee — on expiring contracts. How will Memphis approach those players will be telling. They could trade them for assets and help teams clear cap space for 2020 or take that space for their own. There’s probably a middle ground to be found, as Memphis shouldn’t be rushing to spend money on a weak free agency class.
Team MVP: Jackson Jr. is going to assert himself as the best, most important player on the team this year. He’s going to be a killer roll man, show some real three-point shooting and be maybe the team’s best defender by the end of the season. He is very clearly at everything that’s coming.
Best Value: It’s a repetitive answer, but Jackson Jr. is a bargain at $6.9 million this season. If he becomes as good as he projects to be, he’s going to be a bargain until the end of his rookie contract when he gets paid what he’s worth.
X-Factor: Here are two: Clarke and Guduric. Both are young and could be part of the plan moving forward. Both have modern games and complement what Morant and Jackson do. If the Grizzlies already have two, or even one, complementary piece already locked in, that’s huge.
Best-Case Scenario
If everything goes right, Memphis is one of the those teams that doesn’t make the playoffs, but positions itself for a bright, bright future. Morant, in this scenario, is the No. 2 rookie behind Zion Williamson, Jackson takes a huge leap and the system Jackson is installing works.
Worst-Case Scenario
Jenkins’ system takes a while to develop and the Grizzlies’ offense never really takes off. Morant struggles to pass and score in part due to his frame. Jackson takes a leap, but not the seismic one that seems possible. The season ends, Memphis is bad and has a difficult summer to navigate.
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