President Donald Trump introduces Louisiana Republican gubernatorial candidates Eddie Rispone, left, ... [+]
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards is in a fight for his political life following the outcome of the October 12 primary elections, in which Democrat candidates were decimated across the depth and breadth of the Bayou State. In the state’s “jungle” primary system, candidates of all parties face off against one another, and candidates who win at least 50% of the vote plus one avoid having to go to a runoff.
On October 12, Republicans were able to secure enough state Senate seats for a super-majority in that body, and came within 7 seats of a super-majority in the House, with 8 seats left to be decided in the November 16 runoff elections. Republicans also won 5 of the 7 statewide offices up for re-election, with the governor’s race and insurance commissioner’s race both going to runoffs. Two Republicans will face off in that race for insurance commissioner, leaving just one statewide office being contested between the two major parties.
Gov. Edwards, as the only viable Democrat in the governor’s race, easily won the highest percentage of votes in the primary, but he failed to reach the 50% level, and will face Baton Rouge businessman Eddie Rispone in the runoff. Although the Republican primary vote was split between Rispone, Ralph Abraham and another candidate, a new We Ask America poll released on October 16 shows the race now tied at 47-47, as Rispone has been able to quickly consolidate GOP voter support.
For the state’s oil and gas industry, the outcome of this election is crucial. As I detailed in a piece back in August, Governor Edwards, himself a former trial lawyer, has assumed an overtly-confrontational posture related to the industry, and has used state resources in support of a raft of class-action lawsuits whose goal is to essentially hold the industry wholly responsible for the state’s long-standing coastal erosion and land subsidence problems.
To date, that strategy of pursuing public policy via litigation has been a miserable failure for Gov. Edwards and the State, producing $0 in settlements or awards. The Governor’s aggressive posture towards the industry has also had the very predictable outcome of dampening the enthusiasm among producers, pipeline companies and refiners for doing business in the state, exacerbating the state’s moribund overall economic climate.
As Gifford Briggs, President of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association (LOGA) told me in an email, the participants in LOGPAC, LOGA’s affiliated political action committee, decided to fully endorse the Rispone candidacy. “Our endorsement of Mr. Rispone speaks for itself,” Briggs, who is LOGPAC’s Executive Director, said, “Our members believe that having new leadership in the Governor’s Mansion is vital to the future of our state’s economy and Louisiana’s energy industry. We just can’t afford another four years of this economic mismanagement.”
The state’s other major industry association, the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association (LMOGA), also endorsed the Rispone candidacy through its political action committee. Tyler Gray, Chairman of Mid-Continent PAC, said, “This endorsement is because Mr. Rispone is committed to all policy changes that will improve the business climate for oil and gas in Louisiana, making it more competitive with our neighboring states.”
The oil and gas industry was not the only business sector to line up in favor of a change in the governor’s seat. The Louisiana Association of Business and Industry (LABI), the state’s largest general business association, is also endorsing Rispone. In a recent radio interview, LABI President and CEO Stephen Waguespack went even further, predicting that Rispone would win the race by a 52 to 48 margin. "We're proud to stand with Eddie Rispone," says Wags, "He's in really good shape to win this thing in a runoff."
Such overt and unambiguous opposition to any incumbent governor by a state’s business community is quite unusual, since doing so is likely to create opportunities for payback should the incumbent ultimately prevail. But this is the climate Governor Edwards has created for himself.
As in any statewide runoff election, turnout on November 16 will obviously be a key. Although turnout for the primary election was a new record for a statewide primary, that was likely largely-driven by the fact that President Donald Trump had held a rally in Lake Charles the night before the vote. Historically, turnout for runoff elections drops off significantly.
Many factors appear to be coalescing to diminish Gov. Edwards’ chances for re-election to a second four-year term. But he remains well-funded by the state’s legal community, and the powers of incumbency are strong in any gubernatorial race.
For the state’s oil and gas and general business communities, who hope that the election of a new governor might result in policies that would help create a more positive economic climate for their state, the next few weeks will be a nervous time indeed.
