5 Things To Watch For As The Detroit Pistons Enter Free Agency

The Detroit Pistons came out of the NBA draft having pulled off a handful of surprising moves. They turned Jon Leuer's $9.5 million worth of dead money into a rotation wing in Tony Snell, two future draft picks, $5 million in cash and the 37th pick in the draft which they used on 19-year-old Lithuanian Deividas Sirvydis.

A contract like Leuer's would typically require attaching a valuable pick to just to get off the books, but it got flipped for value. That should inspire some extra interest in what senior advisor Ed Stefanski and the Piston front office have in mind as free agency looms just a week away.

With a multitude of possible directions ahead for the Detroit Pistons, we're going to take a look at the top five things to watch for as the organization enters the free agency period on June 30th.

What's going to happen with Ish Smith?

The highest-profile free agent on the Piston roster this summer is Ish Smith, backup point guard and occasionally 1B point guard when Reggie Jackson is not at the peak of his powers. In Smith's three seasons in Detroit, he averaged 24 minutes per game with shooting splits of .453/.314/.714.

These splits are across-the-board improvements on his career numbers as he blossomed into a 3-point shooter who was nothing close to efficient, but could hit enough shots that defenses had to at least keep an eye on him. In fact, he scored 1.109 points per possession (PPP) in catch-and-shoot opportunities, a rate which placed him in the 67th percentile per Synergy.

Smith signed a 3-year, $18 million deal in 2016, and it's possible his Bird Rights will be utilized to re-sign him, probably on a one-year deal. The Pistons could go this route in order to retain depth at the point guard spot rather than having to use their mid-level or bi-annual exceptions (MLE and BAE) there.

The Pistons will probably wait a while into free agency before deciding his fate (unless another team comes along and offers him a favorable deal first) in the hopes of making a decision on that role with the most information possible.

Those expiring contracts

Reggie Jackson and Langston Galloway both have expiring contracts next season, which means other teams may be interested in acquiring one or both of them in order to clear cap space for the summer of 2020. Both players have salaries which exceed their value, with Jackson making $18 million and Galloway making $7.3 million next season, but the expiring nature of their deals give them some increased value.

While Galloway plays shooting guard, a position of rapidly decreasing scarcity on the Detroit Pistons' roster after acquiring Tony Snell, Jackson's value would be hard to replace at starting point guard if the Pistons did make a trade involving him, unless another point guard comes back in return.

Expect to see the Pistons resolve at least the backup point guard situation first with Ish Smith or perhaps a free agent signing before they make any move to trade Jackson, if in fact they opt to go that route with him.

What of the MLE?

The biggest contract the Pistons can offer this summer comes in the form of the MLE, which is worth $9.246 million in the first year and can be worth up to $39 million over four years if they sign a player long-term. Without a doubt, whoever ends up being their biggest splash in free agency will be getting either all or (less likely) part of the MLE.

In the past under Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower, the Pistons were habitually rushed in their utility of the MLE, using it on July 1st in both 2016 and 2017, but they'd be best served by waiting out the market this season and finding some extra value through patience. With almost half the league hitting free agency this season, there will be some tremendous options for teams who don't blow through their spending capabilities in the early hours of July.

Once the teams with major cap space get their max players, teams who don't use their exceptions in the early goings will be able to outbid other teams who spent too much too soon, and the Pistons may be able to find a steal who had expected a bigger deal once the league-wide spending flurry ends.

Will the Pistons enter the luxury tax?

Pistons' owner Tom Gores has indicated repeatedly that he's eager to spend into the luxury tax if he has a team where that expenditure can be justified to push them further, and Ed Stefanski has stated that they'll enter the luxury tax if they can get a player they believe can make them a top-four team in the Eastern Conference.

So given these requirements, Pistons fans should hope that Gores and Stefanski can come to an agreement that this team should have an opportunity to make a move like that. What that would involve remains to be seen, given that the Detroit Pistons are about $13 million under the tax as it stands, even with Ish Smith currently unsigned.

If the Pistons were to use the whole MLE and their BAE, those two exceptions combine for about $12.9 million, meaning that barring cost-cutting moves they would be entering the tax if they also signed Smith.

Mind you, entering the luxury tax doesn't mean you'll actually pay the tax, as long as you cut the required salary off the books before the end of the 2019-20 regular season, so there's no reason the Pistons can't acquire the salary that pushes them over the line but jettison bad salary later in the year if they underperform.

What surprises are in store?

Things never go the way you expect in free agency. The most likely result is Ish Smith re-signs, some nice but unimpressive piece is signed with the MLE, an aging veteran is signed with the BAE, the Pistons go slightly into the tax and make a cost-cutting move at some point in the year to avoid the payment, and on goes life.

On the other hand, two summers ago it looked like the Pistons would return the same starting lineup that closed the previous season, but they ended up moving Marcus Morris, renouncing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and trading for Avery Bradley and a decent chunk of the roster was completely turned over in the blink of an eye.

This season, maybe Ish Smith is allowed to walk, Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond are traded, Bradley Beal is acquired and only three or four Pistons from last season are still on the roster on opening night.

There's not much in the sports world that can match the chaos of the NBA, especially in July, and with the wheeling and dealing Ed Stefanski has already pulled off this offseason, a major shift of some sort can never be ruled out.