Hyperloop experts and aficionados met in Golden, Colorado last week and exchanged the latest on this bold transportation idea. Is it innovative disruption or some kind of crazy dream?
Well, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has voted in favor of a $48.6 million contract with Elon Musk's Boring Company with the intent to build an underground people mover.
I talked to David Pring-Mill about it -- he's Communications Director for the Hyperloop Advanced Research Project (HARP) the non-profit that hosted the conference at the Colorado School of Mines.
Here's our conversation:
John Navin: What's the broad picture for hyperloop activity that's taking place?
David Pring-Mill: There's a lot of innovation and a lot of risk happening in transportation right now, not just on the ground but in the sky. Virgin Galactic is expected to go public with a $1.5 billion evaluation but they’ve had setbacks, including a disastrous test flight that killed one co-pilot.
Across the board, emerging transportation companies are publicly projecting ambitious timelines but some of this innovation might take longer than expected. That’s OK. This community of futurists, engineers, and policymakers needs to prioritize safety. And safety takes time.
Navin: What kind of materials are involved in the construction of such a project?
Pring-Mill: Some of the different companies have proprietary propulsion systems but the general idea is that the pods will be using linear electric motors and electromagnetic levitation. If above ground, they will travel in a steel tube elevated on concrete pylons.
The materials question is actually an interesting one with various implications. In my view, the central argument for a hyperloop is sustainability. And certain materials could offset some of those environmental benefits.
Many of the companies in this space have indicated that their systems could be entirely self-powered with solar. That would be a huge breakthrough. According to the EPA, the transportation sector was responsible for 29% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2017. Hyperloop could nudge the sector in a more socially responsible direction.
But if hyperloop goes underground, you're going to need massive amounts of concrete for those tunnels. On the bright side, these tunnels could last for over a century. And an underground route is arguably more secure than an above ground one. But concrete is problematic.
The chemical processes and energy consumption associated with concrete are damaging to the environment. So ultimately, it's all about context. Aviation emits greenhouse gases at high altitudes and scientists are currently exploring other areas of potential aviation-related climate impact, such as particulates and water vapor. So concrete would probably be a small environmental cost when you consider the distinguishing benefits of a hyperloop.
Navin: How much might it cost to build?
Pring-Mill: The cost is a looming question mark. Megaprojects tend to have significant cost overruns. There are many variables that make them difficult to predict and manage, including the complications of land acquisition and, in this case, regulatory uncertainties.
Fortunately, the USDOT recently formed an internal deliberative body called the Non-Traditional and Emerging Transportation Technology Council in order to establish clarity and jurisdiction over hyperloop and other category-breaking innovations. So that will take out some of the guesswork. Obviously the cost will also vary depending on the route chosen.
So in my opinion, the best way to get a sense of the cost is to ask the companies for their route-specific estimates and then take that with a grain of salt. I would add, however, that it's taken an incalculable amount of money to develop the modern aviation industry and hyperloop will be no different. Some critics are setting the bar higher for hyperloop simply because it’s new and not entirely proven.
Navin: Has any hyperloop project been completed? Can you describe it?
Pring-Mill: Elon Musk has a test track in Hawthorne, California at the SpaceX facilities where he hosts pod design competitions. One team hit 290 miles per hour in the SpaceX pod competition. Hyperloop Transportation Technologies has a full-scale test track in France and we'll see how fast they go there. Virgin Hyperloop One is setting top speed expectations at 670 miles per hour, which would be faster than a high-speed rail system. They also have a test track in the Nevada desert.
Concurrent to this, there's also a lot of progress happening in tunnel boring technology. The Boring Company and other companies believe it's possible to reduce the cost of tunneling and increase the speed through automation, new electric technologies and even AI.
One TBC competitor, HyperSciences, says that its underground rock breaking solution can go 2.5X faster than conventional drilling and blasting methods.
Navin: What are the main obstacles?
Pring-Mill: The partial vacuum within hyperloop tubes can help to maximize speeds and minimize the system's operating energy usage. But even though there's this eco-friendly aspect to the technology, a lot of people are attracted to it on the basis of the high speeds and of course the time saved by traveling at those speeds.
Therefore, if something or someone impedes the system's ability to deliver on those anticipated speeds by obstructing the most optimal route, that could be fairly characterized as a significant obstacle. Any curvature in the route would reduce speeds. It has been suggested that hyperloop will require a 0.1 to 1.6 kilometer turn radius.
So the companies will need to secure right-of-way in order to get those straight lines and get those top speeds. In addition, they will need to work with regulatory agencies on issues of safety and compliance. And they will need to win over the public if they want to serve the needs of passenger travel.
However, they don't necessarily need to accommodate passengers -- it's entirely possible that the best use case for a hyperloop involves freight, not people.
Navin: Can you tell us more about the Elon Musk connection to the concept?
Pring-Mill: Elon Musk is producing an array of innovations within transportation. His open-source white paper in 2012 inspired the formation of this industry. Although he’s run into some troubles lately, the people who I’ve spoken to within this industry by and large respect him.
If the hyperloop industry develops into something viable, it's possible that the hyperloop companies will become clients of The Boring Company and he'll dig the tunnels for them, but that isn't happening right now.
The industry is also trying to figure out its terminology because right now there’s confusion between a “Hyperloop” and a “Loop.” A Loop might just involve an underground network of tunnels that allow autonomous electric vehicles to travel at higher speeds, either by putting them on so-called sleds or by passively stabilizing them with deploy-able tracking wheels so that they can attain higher speeds.
Right now, Musk seems to be focused on the development of this type of system, a “Loop.” HTT, Virgin Hyperloop One and others are building “Hyperloop” systems with partial vacuums.
Navin: David, thanks.
