The Bucks give up a lot of 3-pointers by design. Will that be a problem in the postseason? Photo by ... [+]
The Milwaukee Bucks spent the entire regular season as statistically the best team, with the best point differential and the best defense, playing at the fastest pace in the league.
They have Giannis Antetokounmpo, the likely back-to-back MVP, an All-Star in Khris Middleton and a deep roster of rotation of players that ensures Milwaukee still outscores opponent by large amounts even when the Greek Freak sits. But if there’s one weakness the Bucks have, it’s that they give up the most 3-pointers on the most attempts, with teams shooting threes at a league average percentage.
Milwaukee is now 2-2 in the bubble and clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference after coming back from 23 down to beat Miami 123-111 on Thursday despite the Heat hitting 21 3-pointers. The Bucks are now 3-6 in their last nine games and officially have a defensive problem of allowing too many threes. The Heat, a potential second round opponent in the playoffs, hit 13 3-pointers in the first half and led by 17 at halftime despite Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic being out for Miami.
Antetokounmpo picked up his 5th foul with 10:48 left in the 4th quarter, but Milwaukee outscored Miami 13-6 in his absence while Heat All-Star Bam Adebayo picked up his 5th as well. But the Bucks absolutely rolled from there, turning up that patented defense and extinguishing the Heat down the stretch. Milwaukee outscored Miami 38-18 in the 4th quarter, Giannis avoided fouling out and the Bucks overpowered the Heat to win. It was Milwaukee’s first win over Miami this season in three meetings.
James Harden and the Houston Rockets were able to launch 61 threes and hit enough of them to beat ... [+]
After beating Boston by seven in its first seeding game, with the Celtics shooting a dismal 11-for-37 from three, teams have found success against Milwaukee’s defense. Houston eked out a four-point win on Sunday by shooting 61 threes, hitting 21 of them, and going 27-of-31 from the free throw line. Brooklyn emulated the Rockets’ model, going 21-for-47 from three, barely turning it over and with Giannis and Middleton sitting in the second half, pulled off the biggest NBA betting upset in 25 years.
Now Milwaukee by design is asking opponents to shoot threes, knowing that with Antetokounmpo and other strong rim protectors, that scoring in the paint against the Bucks is harder than any other team in basketball. That worked amazingly in the 4th quarter against the Heat on Thursday.
But Milwaukee can no longer fatten up on the six Eastern Conference teams that didn’t reach the NBA bubble. It’s going to be playing top teams every game, especially when the playoffs begin. And these teams are not hesitating to launch threes at an even higher rate than during the regular season.
The Bucks are now the top seed in the Eastern Conference regardless of what happens in these seeding games, affording them the right to rest players over the last four seeding contests. But teams are now finding success against their top ranked defense by letting it fly from beyond the arc. Will coach Mike Budenholzer adapt and alter Milwaukee’s scheme for the postseason, or stick to his guns and dare opponents to beat them from deep four times in a seven-game series?
It’s a question that’ll determine who reaches the NBA Finals from the Eastern Conference, and could determine Antetokounmpo’s long-term future in Milwaukee. Against Miami, the Bucks showed just how well this plan can work, but losses this week to Houston and Brooklyn have certainly given the NBA world some doubt as to whether the Bucks can go all the way.
