ECB: First deposit rate hike now seen March 2020

After today’s meeting, the European Central Bank signaled the first hike probably will not come this year and announced a new package of TLTROs, explained Wells Fargo analysts. They see the terms of the new TLTROs as less favorable for banks, at least compared to prior rounds. According to them, if the Eurozone economy stabilizes as they expect and the ECB eventually raises rates, they would still look for the euro to rise over time.

Key Quotes:

“The ECB made two key policy changes today. First, it pushed back its interest rate guidance to signal the first hike probably will not come this year. It also announced a new package of TLTROs, the terms of which were not as favorable as past offerings. The change in rate guidance was more of a surprise, in our view. In light of this new guidance, we are pushing back our forecast for the first ECB deposit rate hike to March 2020.”

“While the ECB pushed back its rate guidance and announced new loans, this does not strike us as the start of a sustained shift toward easier monetary policy from the central bank. The terms of the new TLTROs are not particularly favorable compared to prior rounds of lending, and there was no talk of a possible rate cut or another round of asset purchases. To be sure, the domestic backdrop in the Eurozone remains challenging, as highlighted by the ECB’s forecast downgrades today. However, we do not see a looming recession for the Eurozone domestic economy, and expect a rebound in activity as the year progresses. If the Eurozone economy stabilizes as we expect and the ECB eventually raises rates, we would still look for the euro to rise over time, even if those eventual euro gains may not come until later this year.”

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