Gloucesteshire's Mark Harper could become the next Conservative Prime Minister, say political pundits.
Westminster journalists believe the Forest of Dean MP is already preparing the ground for a shock leadership bid when Theresa May steps aside.
And although arch Brexiteer Boris Johnson is the bookies' favourite to take over from Mrs May with odds of of 6/1, the strategists say Mr Harper could easily sneak up on the outside.
Heavyweights like Mr Johnson, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd could knock each other out the leadership race in the scramble for No 10.
“Tory MPs say Mark Harper, the former chief whip, is on leadership manoeuvres,” The Sun’s political commentator James Forsyth said.
“This is another reminder of just how crowded the field is going to be when Mrs May goes.”
He went on to say he had spoken to a Minister who compared the next Conservative leadership race to the 1967 Grand National when there was a pile-up at the 23rd fence.
The minister hinted Mr Harper could secure a shock victory in the same manner as 100-1 outsider Foinavon who was first past the post after seeing the rest of the field falling and putting a spurt on.
Mrs May says she will quit Downing Street before 2022 but if she fails to get her withdrawal agreement through the Commons before the March 29 deadline day, there could be an early General Election.
Mr Johnson would be favourite to win any leadership contest followed by Mr Javid who is 8/1.
But Mr Harper who joined parliament in May 2005 and soon became one of David Cameron’s closest advisors should not be ruled out.
As chief whip from the Conservative general election victory in May 2015 to July 2016, he is a well known figure amongst MPs.
It’s not the first time Mr Harper has been tipped for the top and he was widely predicted to be a prime ministerial contender before Mrs May sacked him as chief whip when she became prime minister in 2016.
Most commentators were surprised she failed to invite him back into the Cabinet even though they had worked together when she was Home Secretary and he was her Immigration Minister and he had backed her in the leadership contest.
Mr Harper, who worked with Nick Clegg on House of Lords reform, has a reputation for being cautious and loyal.
He stepped down from his post as Immigration Minister immediately after he discovered his cleaner did not have permission to stay in the UK in February 2014 to protect the government.
Usually loyal and tightlipped, he recently spoke out against Mrs May and voted against her when the Commons rejected her Brexit deal.
And he has become more visible in recent times after telling Mrs May she needed to unite the party.
The Forest MP has also made several TV appearances, including an interview with SKY TV’s political correspondent Adam Boulton who asked if he preferred leaving the EU without a Brexit deal.
“Let me be clear, my preference is a deal,” said the MP.
“But if I was faced with a choice between not leaving or leaving without a deal, I would prefer to leave because the country voted to leave.
“I think the country made the decision to leave so I think we should leave.”
When Mr Boulton on aid the country had"voted for economic self-harm", Mr Harper hit back: “The country voted to leave.
“I think it’s our job to get a deal but it isn’t acceptable to say if you can’t get a deal you’re not going to leave.
“Because then you’re signing up to taking whatever you’re given by the European Union.”
He said the European Union is not going to change the backstop and give her a good deal.
“Why would they? They would just sit there and wait for us to not leave,” he told Sky.
“Which is what many of them want. And I think what we’ve got to do is deliver on the decision that people made two and a half years ago.”
At the last election Mr Harper and his Labour rival Shaun Stammers both benefited from the collapse of the UKIP vote in what was once a stronghold for the anti EU party.
How are new Tory leaders elected
Leaders of the Conservative Party are elected by two stages:
- Conservative Members of Parliament select a choice of two candidates to present to the membership of the whole Party;
- Party members vote, on a "one member one vote" basis, for their preferred candidate from a shortlist of two.
The rules for reducing the field down to the two, are determined by the Executive of the 1922 Committee in consultation with the Conservative Party Board. The broad principles are set out in the Conservative Party Constitution but not the detailed rules.
Mr Harper won a 54.3 per cent share of the vote.
This time he will face a woman after local Labour party officials voted for an all female shortlist.
Gloucestershire Live has tried to reach Mr Harper for comment.
