EXCLUSIVE: Questions Arise About Quality of RI’s Coronavirus Testing Data
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
An analysis by GoLocal in conjunction with Dr. Michael Fine, the former RI Director of Health, found that the number of new cases released by Governor Gina Raimondo’s administration each weekday is often changed after it is released. The number of cases in a two-week period grew by 250 cases — an increase of 17%.
GoLocal also found two other critical problems with the data.
The Department of Health now reports daily data which is a conglomerate of tests taking place over more than two weeks. Thus, identifying emerging trends is almost impossible.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTAnd, as the city and town data is so inconsistently reported that it has little value, especially is taking actions to minimize spread.
Changing Data
During the period of July 22 to August 4, the total number of new cases announced were consistently adjusted upward without explanation and without public disclosure — the initially reported number painted a rosier picture than the actual number of cases during that time period.
As just one example, on August 4, Rhode Island officials announced 123 new cases, but that number was then changed on the Department of Health dashboard to 145 new cases.
“Over the past two weeks, our numbers have been adjusted upward slightly on a few days because of the need for additional patient information in some instances. Another issue has been new laboratories coming on board, and the need to get them fully integrated into our reporting system. This is something that should be adjusted very shortly,” said Rhode Island Health Department’s public information officer Joseph Wendelken in an email to GoLocal.
However, Fine says that the upward changes in data raise concerns about the quality of the state’s data and that the adjusted increase in cases is not minor, especially if those increases are concentrated around certain communities.
Watch Raimondo’s press conferences on the coronavirus and you will hear two constant refrains by Raimondo, “I am a data geek” and “we will follow the science” but the reality is that the Rhode Island data is inconsistent, often changed, contaminated with mixed data collection dates, and not readily available for cities and towns.
Raimondo often congratulates her own administration and cites the success of her programs as other states are issuing quarantine orders for Rhode Islanders visiting their respective states.
On Monday, Rhode Island reported that coronavirus-related hospitalizations had risen by more than 50% from 61 on July 7 to 93 on August 9 - just a little more than a month later.
On Monday, the New York Times featured Rhode Island on the front page as a state with the fastest rising number of cases.
Fine Questions Reporting
“It is quite unclear what the daily data represents. How many of the cases are symptomatic versus asymptomatic? They are mixing two categories that should be reported separately,” said Fine.
“We have no apples to apple comparison data and we have no historical measure vis a vis the results from everyone tested on any one given day,” said Fine.
“I would much rather see the positive results for the individual day than the number of case results that are reported on a given day, but reflect tests taken over two week period,” he added.
Some of the new cases announced of August 10 are likely to reflect test results going back to July 27 or older.
Data Critical for School Reopening
Fine says that local data and proper reporting is critical for schools to reopen.
On June 10, Raimondo announced that schools across the state would open uniformly on August 31.
Now, she has begun to back away from the pronouncement with a number of conflicting comments and has said now it will be during the week of August 16 that she will announce if some or all schools will return to the classroom.
“The failure to give the day over day community data is a significant failure and makes it very difficult for a school district’s superintendent to make a decision about reopening schools,” said Fine.
“We just went two weeks without numbers by communities,” he added.
“I have a lot of access to a lot of data and I don’t know what has been happening in my communities, I have no idea how a superintendent can get a sense of the trends,” said Fine.
Fine consults to Central Falls on healthcare issues.
On Monday, GoLocal reported that a new study by the American Academy of Pediatrics found that at least 97,000 children were recently infected with the coronavirus across the United States. And, Rhode Island's numbers are especially concerning.
The percentage of cases in Rhode Island that were children testing positive was well above the national average, according to the study released by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
While in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey the percent was under 6%, in Rhode Island the percentage was more than 9% — the national average is 8.8%.
Rhode Island ranks 9th overall for cases per 100,00 for children. Fine warns that the data in the AAP study reports the definition of children that varies significantly by state.
In Rhode Island, the specific data for children is not publicly reported — less than 1% of all deaths from the disease are linked to Rhode Islanders under 40 years of age.
Editor's note: an earlier version said Fine consults to the city of Pawtucket - that agreement concluded recently.
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- EXCLUSIVE: Questions Arise About Quality of RI’s Coronavirus Testing Data
