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North Dakota surges past previous high of active COVID-19 cases

The North Dakota Department of Health confirmed today that coronavirus case counts have continued to climb since late June, surpassing a previous peak in May.

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3D print of a SARS-CoV-2—also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19—virus particle. The virus surface (blue) is covered with spike proteins (red) that enable the virus to enter and infect human cells. National Institutes of Health

BISMARCK — The North Dakota Department of Health announced 108 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, July 13, pushing the state’s total number of active cases to a record high of 702.

North Dakota surged past its previous high for active cases over the weekend, topping the former peak of 670 cases on May 21.

The 108 positives announced Monday are among 4,564 new test results, for a testing positivity rate of 2.4%. This marks an uptick in the proportion of cases coming back positive, a figure that had been hovering at or below 2%.

Twenty-eight of the new cases came from Cass County, which includes Fargo and West Fargo, and another 21 came from Burleigh County, which encompasses Bismarck. Burleigh has emerged as a growing hot spot for the virus in the last two weeks.

The department says 87 North Dakotans have died from the illness. The vast majority of these deaths have come in Cass County, and so far no one has died from the virus in Burleigh County. Most of the state's deaths have occurred in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

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North Dakota’s recent surge of COVID-19 cases mirrors a national trend, as Southern and Sunbelt states have rocketed to record high case counts over the last two weeks. And while North Dakota’s numbers are a small fraction of those seen in more densely populated regions of the country, the state has seen a steady rise in reported infections since late June.

Many epidemiologists have pointed to reckless reopening strategies in states like Texas, Florida and Louisiana as contributors to the recent surge. For many warm weather states, summer heat has also driven people into enclosed, air-conditioned spaces where coronavirus transmission is easier.

The reopening of businesses, combined with sparse use of masks, may help explain North Dakota’s recent trend lines. Testing levels have remained relatively constant over the last few weeks, even as active case numbers have climbed.

Molly Howell, an assistant director for the Department of Health's division of disease control, attributed the recent surge to reopening businesses and increased travel to other parts of the country, as well as a more targeted contact tracing program.

Howell also noted that a lack of compliance with mask guidelines could exacerbate viral transmission. "I'm seeing a low uptake of people wearing masks," Howell observed of Bismarck. "The importance of masks is that, with COVID, we have some cases who are completely asymptomatic — don't even know that they have COVID — and then we have other cases who are symptomatic. But you're able to transmit COVID a couple days prior to even having symptoms."

And while Howell noted that a concentration of testing in more affected parts of the state might have raised the state's positive case rate, she added that the recent numbers raise a few red flags: "Anytime we see an increase in cases or an increase in the positivity rate we're concerned."

Gov. Doug Burgum said the state has the capacity to perform 5,000 tests per day, and he has urged residents to seek testing whether they have symptoms or not. The state has begun offering free mass testing events in the state's biggest metro areas.

A total of 4,442 North Dakota residents have tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic, but 3,653 have recovered. There are 43 residents hospitalized with the illness, up five from Sunday.

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The state has announced the results of 233,097 tests. Some residents have been tested more than once.

Burgum is expected to address the climbing case count at his news conference on Tuesday, July 14.

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Readers can reach Forum reporter Adam Willis, a Report for America corps member, at awillis@forumcomm.com.

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