Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Ruling Congress confident of victory in Jaipur region

In Rajasthan politics, the slogan, Jai Jawan Jai Kisan, applies aptly to the Jaipur division because it is known for its farmers and soldiers. The division is also known for producing the most fertile political brains.

The Jaipur division comprises six parliamentary constituencies – Jaipur-city, Jaipur-rural, Alwar, Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Dausa.

In the 2018 assembly elections, the Congress gained 78 seats to take its tally to 99 and emerge as the single largest party in Rajasthan. This was a reversal from the 2013 assembly polls (BJP won 163), which is reflected in the numbers coming from the Shekhawati (Sikar and Jhunjhunu) and the Jaipur division. The Congress gained considerably in this region in the 2018 assembly polls.

The six parliamentary constituencies in Jaipur division, comprises 50 assembly seats, of which at present 30 are with Congress, BJP (10), BSP (3) and Independent (7), which majority are Congress rebels.

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Looking into the results of last four parliament elections (1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014) of these seats – Jaipur has been traditionally been a BJP fortress and has only thrice been won by Congress since 1952; Jaipur-rural, constituency came in existence in 2008 and has been won once by both parties; Jhunjhunu thrice by Congress; Sikar thrice by BJP; Alwar twice by both parties (Congress won the seat in 2018 bypolls); and Dausa, twice by Congress, once by BJP and Independent.

Traditionally, Congress is stronger in rural areas of the division. In the 2009 general election, Congress won five of the six parliamentary seats in the division and won 20 of the 25 parliamentary seats in the state. In the 2014 general election, riding on the Modi wave BJP swept the polls in Rajasthan winning all 25 parliamentary seats including six in the Jaipur division.

Commenting in the backdrop of 2018 assembly poll results, political analyst Narayan Bareth said in the Shekhawati region, Congress reaped the benefits of the work done by the Left, be it farmer agitation or massive rallies, which created anti-BJP sentiments and weakened the then state government. Since Congress and Left are traditionally seen as farmer-friendly parties, voters looked at the party that could defeat BJP, he said. Alwar is a laboratory of Hindutva, where two incidents of lynching were witnessed, he said. Bareth said the recent development on the border will help the BJP. “Traditionally, parliamentary election calculations favour the sitting state government, which is of Congress, but when nationalism is overpowering (people’s sentiments), this becomes an exceptional scenario (indicating at recent developments on the border),” said Bareth. “What is alarming for Congress is the forming of smaller parties such as Bharatiya Tribal Party,” he added.

However, Congress is confident of good performance. Congress vice president Archana Sharma said there had been vote deficit in last elections, which the party will win with development and schemes. “Congress is fulfilling its commitments in a time bound manner; the loan waiver, unemployment allowance and many other promises have been fulfilled. We will fight the elections on development, while the BJP is counting on publicity, be it nationalism or religion,” she said.

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BJP leader Mukesh Pareek said it is correct that Congress is ahead in number of MLAs, but the vote percentage difference between the two parties was mere 0.5%. The margin of victory for the Congress was “very less”. “In 2014, people voted in the name of Narendra Modi, but this time with his name comes his work; the schemes and policies of centre have benefitted all the sections,” he said.

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