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The United States Supreme Court appears poised to allow the Trump administration to include a citizenship question on the 2020 Census , a question that could depress the survey’s outcome and dramatically impact American politics for at least a decade.
America’s highest court heard oral arguments on the case on Tuesday, and questioning appeared to show a court split along ideological lines — with a likely 5-4 decision in favour of the Trump administration expected by observers of the court.
At stake is whether the Trump administration will be allowed to add a question about citizenship onto next year’s national headcount. The question, critics say could lead to an undercount that diverts federal funding and political clout especially from minority communities, and hands that over to whiter, more Republican, areas.
During oral arguments on Tuesday, the court’s liberal justices appeared particularly concerned with those outcomes.
“There's no doubt that people will respond less” to the census if there is a citizenship question, said Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who quickly began questioning US solicitor general Noel Francisco.
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictionsShow all 23 1 /23Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists hold placards outside of the US Supreme Court ahead of an expected ruling on abortion clinic restrictions on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions An abortion rights activist holds placards outside of the US Supreme Court before the Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. The US Supreme Court on Monday struck down a Texas law placing a raft of restrictions on abortion clinics, handing a major victory to the "pro-choice" camp in the country's most important ruling on the divisive issue in a generation.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 27: Pro-life activists pray on the steps of the United States Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 27: Texas abortion provider Amy Hagstrom-Miller looks on as Nancy Northup, President of The Center for Reproductive Rights speaks to the media outside of the U.S. Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions An abortion rights activist holds placards outside of the US Supreme Court before the Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. The US Supreme Court on Monday struck down a Texas law placing a raft of restrictions on abortion clinics, handing a major victory to the "pro-choice" camp in the country's most important ruling on the divisive issue in a generation.
Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Texas abortion provider Amy Hagstrom-Miller wipes a tear as she walks down the steps of the United States Supreme Court with Nancy Northup, President of The Center for Reproductive Rights on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 27: Abortion rights activists Morgan Hopkins of Boston, left, and Alison Turkos of New York City, celebrate on the steps of the United States Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 27: Abortion rights activists Morgan Hopkins of Boston, left, and Alison Turkos of New York City, celebrate on the steps of the United States Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close. (Photo by Pete Marovich/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activist Morgan Hopkins of Boston, celebrates on the steps of the United States Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a 5-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down one of the nation's toughest restrictions on abortion, a Texas law that women's groups said would have forced more than three-quarters of the state's clinics to close.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists embrace after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists hold placards outside of the US Supreme Court ahead of a ruling on abortion clinic restrictions on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close. / AFP / MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close. / AFP / MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists embrace after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Pro-choice activist, Alissa Manzoeillo, of Washington, D.C. waits for rulings in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. A ruling is expected in Whole Woman's Health v. Hellerstedt, a Texas case the places restrictions on abortion clinics, as well as rulings in the former Virginia Governor's corruption case and a gun rights case.
Pete Marovich/Getty
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists cheer after the US Supreme Court struck down a Texas law placing restrictions on abortion clinics, outside of the Supreme Court on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. In a case with far-reaching implications for millions of women across the United States, the court ruled 5-3 to strike down measures which activists say have forced more than half of Texas's abortion clinics to close.
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists hold placards outside of the US Supreme Court ahead of an expected ruling on abortion clinic restrictions on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC.
AFP/Getty Images
Supreme Court strikes down abortion restrictions Abortion rights activists hold placards outside of the US Supreme Court ahead of an expected ruling on abortion clinic restrictions on June 27, 2016 in Washington, DC.
AFP/Getty Images
Justice Elena Kagan, meanwhile, said that the argument to include the question on the census for the first time since the 1950s was “contrived”.
Conservative justices, meanwhile, highlighted the discretion of US Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross in his oversight of the Census Bureau. Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gosuch — who were both appointed by Donald Trump — both noted that the question has been included on the census previously.
The citizenship question was before the court after multiple lawsuits were brought against the Trump administration by dozens of states, cities, and other groups concerned with the impact such a question could have.
Support free-thinking journalism and attend Independent events Judges in New York, Maryland, and California had all ruled that the federal government’s effort violated established procedures for such a question to be added. The judges in Maryland and California also said that the question impacts the federal government’s ability to carry out the census.
The census is used to determine where to allocate $880bn in yearly funding for schools, roads, and other projects, and is used to calculate political representation in the House of Representatives.
The question’s inclusion was opposed by the US Census Bureau itself, which estimated that 6.5 million people may opt out of responding to the survey, which is administered every ten years.
“Given the stakes, the interest in an accurate count is immense,” Judge Jesse Furman of the Southern District of New York wrote in January, marking the first ruling on the question. “Even small deviations from an accurate count can have major implications for states, localities, and the people who live in them—indeed, for the country as a whole.”
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