A hero, a villain and the poor: What it takes to make a Modi speech

Fifty days, 140 rallies, travelling 1.5 lakh km and reaching out to 1.5 crore people. These are Narendra Modi's campaign statistics for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. With the seven-phase general elections finally coming to an end on Sunday (May 19), the prime minister has left no stone unturned to reach out to the last voter through his aggressive campaigning.

India Today's Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) has found that PM Modi's public addresses have mostly followed a pattern. Analysing his speeches from March 11 to May 17, DIU found that PM Modi delivered the maximum speeches in Uttar Pradesh (14), West Bengal (11), Bihar (9) and Maharashtra (8). We try to decode:

THE LOCAL CONNECT, AN ADVERSARY AND GOVT SCHEMES

All the speeches delivered by the prime minister had a hero, an enemy and the word 'poor'. All his addresses would praise a historically important person from the state he was delivering the speech in. This was to build a connection with voters.

For instance, when he went to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, he spoke about Dalit icon Bhim Rao Ambedkar repeatedly. The words 'Baba Saheb' and 'Ambedkar' have found more than 50 mentions collectively in UP and Bihar.

Similarly, in the eight speeches delivered in Maharashtra, the words 'Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj' found 15 mentions. In his West Bengal speeches, more than 10 mentions of 'Rabindranath Tagore' were found.

Apart from heroes, there are two types of adversaries that find mention in Modi's speeches: fixed and variable.

Fixed adversaries are those that remain constant in his speeches delivered in all the states. The major adversaries that Modi focuses on are 'Pakistan' and 'terrorism'. The Balakot airstrikes and the use of defence forces in combating terrorism have mentions in all the states analysed.

Pakistan collectively found around 90 mentions in the speeches delivered in the four states, 'terror' (and related words) found 269 mentions. Other than 'Pakistan' and 'terror', 'Congress' and 'corruption' also belong to the fixed adversary category.

The variable adversary changes from state to state. Usually, this is the major opposition leader(s) in the state in which Modi is addressing the rally. In Uttar Pradesh, he mentions 'Bua-Babua' in reference to Mayawati-Akhilesh's alliance. Similarly, in Maharashtra, he attacks the NCP and its leader Sharad Pawar. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress are Modi's biggest adversaries.

All his speeches do talk about the success of government schemes that benefited the poor, and hence, the word itself comes to the top in all the speeches he made.

In all his speeches, the Ujjwala Yojana, through which poor households are given free gas connections, finds special mention. The word 'gas' found 10 mentions each in speeches made in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar. In UP, it found 23 mentions.

WHAT'S THE THRUST IN EACH STATE?

The thrust of Modi's speeches is almost similar. 'Poor', 'Congress' and 'Modi' appear on the top of his speeches. But there are some variations, which are explained below:

UTTAR PRADESH

In Uttar Pradesh, the most recurring word was 'poor'. The word found 153 mentions in all the prime minister's speeches put together. The word 'Modi' found the second highest mentions at 139, followed by 'Chowkidar' (118), 'Congress' (103), 'caste' (98), 'farmers' (61) ,'development' (58) and 'terrorists' (45).

WEST BENGAL

Interestingly, in West Bengal, Modi's entire thrust was on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The word 'Didi' - that's how Modi refers to Mamata Banerjee in his speeches -- found as many as 175 mentions.

After Mamata Banerjee, comes 'Chowkidar' (143), 'poor' (98), Trinamool Congress (72), 'development' (48), 'fear' (39), 'Congress' (38) and 'terrorists' (32).

MAHARASHTRA

With the BJP in power in Maharashtra, the thrust of Modi's speeches here was 'Congress'. Of the eight speeches analysed, 'Congress' has appeared 161 times, followed by 'Chowkidar' (154), 'farmers' (69), 'Modi' (53) and 'poor' (38). Interestingly, this is the only state in our analysis where Modi has mentioned Congress more than himself.

BIHAR

'Poor' (86) and 'farmers' (85) come at the top of Modi's speeches in Bihar. Modi mentions himself 56 times, 'Congress' 54 times and 'NDA' 53 times. 'Chowkidar' also comes at the top with 48 mentions.

Before coming to power in 2014, Modi would often criticise current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but this time they being the allies, it was not the case. This is also the reason the word 'NDA' finds so many mentions.

After Nitish Kumar joined NDA, Modi also changed his tone for the JD(U) chief. Nitish Kumar received 21 mentions in Modi's speeches in Bihar, all in positive contexts.