Lok Sabha polls 2019: Can BJP rise like a phoenix from the ashes in Bengal?

India Today's Data Intelligence Unit has revealed that the Left parties - CPI(M), CPI, Forward Block and RSP - lost 17 per cent votes in the last 10 years, while the TMC has gained 14 per cent in the same period.

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Lok Sabha polls 2019: Can BJP rise like a phoenix from the ashes in Bengal?
The BJP has quietly crept into the main opposition space in Bengal over the last couple of years. (Photo: PTI)

The violence in Kolkata between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers following Amit Shah's road show has put the spotlight once again on a 'saffron resurgence' in Mamata land.

The BJP has quietly crept into the main opposition space in Bengal over the last couple of years. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections had seen a sudden spike in support for the BJP, where, riding on the Modi wave, it increased its vote share from a paltry 6% in 2009 to 17% (almost thrice) that time.

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The civic polls in 2017 and panchayat polls last year completed the BJP's dominance in opposition space, relegating the once-undisputed CPI(M) to a distant third, and the Congress as a fringe player. The last two years have seen increased instances of violence between Trinamool and BJP workers.

Sensing an opportunity, the BJP has deployed all its resources to Bengal this time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah have addressed more than a dozen rallies each in the state in this election.

Some commentators have argued that the BJP might do a Tripura in Bengal. In 2018, the BJP had overthrown the 25-year-long Manik Sarkar-led Left Front government in Tripura. Surprisingly, the BJP's vote share had grown from a mere 2 per cent in 2013 to 43 per cent in 2018 in this tiny state.

It, however, seems difficult for the BJP to repeat a Tripura in Bengal. India Today's Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) has analysed the vote share of parties in the last two parliamentary elections and the last assembly election in 2016.

Two things are clear: First, the Left has consistently been in a declining mode and on the other hand, TMC has been gaining in each and every election. The Left parties - CPI(M), CPI, Forward Block and RSP - lost 17 per cent votes in the last 10 years, while the TMC has gained 14 per cent in the same period.

Second, unlike Tripura, the BJP's performance has been fluctuating from election to election. 2014 was the best performance of the BJP where they won two seats and got their highest ever vote share in the state. However, the BJP could not maintain its performance in the 2016 assembly election. They gained 11 per cent votes from 2009 to 2014 but lost 7 per cent votes in two years.

Could BJP hold on to its vote share?

The BJP's loss in terms of vote share in Bengal was more in areas where they did perform well in 2014. There were 13 Parliamentary constituencies such as Alipuduar, Asansol, Balurghat, Bankura, Barasat, Barrakpur, Darjeeling, Dumdum, Howrah, Kolkata Dakshin, Kolkata Uttar, Krishnanagar and Srerampur, where BJP got more than 20 per cent votes in 2014, which was 3 per cent more than their average vote share in the state. Even in these constituencies, the BJP vote share came down heavily in 2016.

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In 2014, the BJP's gain was 15 per cent on these 13 seats, while in 2016, they lost half their votes and the share came down to 13 per cent.

How BJP fared in SC/ST seats

Interestingly, the BJP performed well in those areas where scheduled castes and scheduled tribes are in sizeable numbers. In the panchayat elections last year, the BJP came a close second to the Trinamool Congress in terms of number of seats won and total vote share in the districts of Jhargram, Malda and Purulia, which have more than 35 per cent SC/ST population.

There are 12 reserved constituencies in Bengal - 10 SC and 2 ST - and the voting trends in these seats were similar to the above.

In constituencies where ST population is high such as Alipurduar, Balurghat, Bankura, Darjeeling, Jhargram, Malda Uttar, Medinipur and Purulia, the BJP had outdone its performance compared to its overall performance in the state.

Even in 2009, when the BJP had 6 per cent vote in Bengal, they got more than double the state average in these tribal-dominated belts. In 2014, the BJP increased its vote share to 20 per cent in these seats, but in 2016, it again down to 12 per cent.

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Trends for 2019

While past trends show that the BJP's vote share has been fluctuating, ground reports this time indicate that the saffron camp is on an upswing. The catch, however, is whether the BJP could convert these extra votes into seats.

Political observers believe that if the Left vote shifts significantly to the BJP, then the latter might in fact pull off a major surprise. However, this seems difficult majorly due to two reasons. First, past poll data suggests that it is rare for the Left parties to lose more than 15 per cent votes in one election, and for the BJP to gain a good number of seats, it is necessary.

Second, the TMC has been increasing its vote share in every election; they polled 45 per cent votes in the last assembly election. And reports from the ground suggest that it is not losing much of its core support. Here, it is also important to note that Muslims constitute 27 per cent in Bengal and they have voted the Left as well. Therefore, the loss in Left's vote would not necessarily go the BJP as Muslims may choose to go with the TMC, which may further add up Mamata Banerjee's vote.

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For the BJP's stars to shine in this election, they not only need a good chunk (more than half) of Left votes, but also a significant vote loss for the TMC. Except this, the prospects of the BJP in Bengal to repeat a Tripura would be near impossible. However, the BJP would in all likelihood, become the main opposition party in Bengal, which could pose a major threat to the TMC in the 2021 assembly election.

(The author thanks Shamindra Nath Roy, Senior Researcher at Centre for Policy Research (CPR), for help with data mining.)