Decoded: Why 2019 was a worse year for Congress than 2014
Data from India Today-Axis My India post poll study shows that in three South Indian states Rahul Gandhi was more popular than Narendra Modi for the prime ministerial post but in the rest of the country, Modi was way ahead of Rahul Gandhi.
In Short
- In 52 seats Congress won in 2019, median margin of victory was 8.6 per cent
- In 2014, both were in direct fight in 189 seats: BJP won in 166, strike rate of 88 per cent
- In in 2019, Congress was in competing position in 262 seats, six down compared to 268 in 2014 and 350 in 2009
The Congress party won 52 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, just eight seats more than its 2014 tally. It's vote share, 19.5 per cent, is almost the same as 2014.
While the headline numbers show little change, a closer look at the numbers shows how the party struggled in 2019.
LOOK AT THREE DATA POINTS:
First, the party's victory margins declined.
In the 52 seats the Congress won in 2019, the median margin of victory was 8.6 per cent, five percentage points lower than the 13.6 per cent for the 44 seats in 2014.
Second, consider the fight between the two national parties, the BJP and Congress.
In 2014, both were in a direct fight -- in position one or two -- in 189 seats: BJP won in 166, a strike rate of 88 per cent.
In 2019, there were 192 such seats, and the BJP won 176, that is 92 per cent of the seats. This shows that the BJP further improved its performance in a head-on contest with the Congress party.
Third, in 2019, the Congress was in a competing position - either winner or runner up - in 262 seats, six down compared to 268 in 2014 and 350 in 2009.
In 141 of the 426 seats, Congress was placed either third or fourth.
In 16 states and Union Territories, the Congress did not get even one seat: Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, Delhi, Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Nagaland, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh.
Beyond the numbers, Congress president Rahul Gandhi losing in Amethi, his home turf, is a symbolic defeat for the grand old party.
The only consolation for the party came from the South.
In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front won 19 of the 20 seats. Rahul Gandhi himself will be in the Parliament representing Wayanad, Kerala.
Data from India Today-Axis My India post poll study shows that in three South Indian states -- Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh -- Rahul Gandhi was more popular than Narendra Modi for the prime ministerial post.
In Punjab and Telangana, the gap in their popularity was low.
In the rest, Modi was way ahead of Rahul Gandhi.