How regional parties gained ground in Andhra Pradesh

The 2019 general elections saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerge the victor with a thumping majority which was incidentally just a few seats short of a two-thirds majority on its own.

With the NDA covering more grounds in the 2019 elections compared to its 2014 victory, Andhra Pradesh was an oddity that stood tall as it had ousted its previous state government formed by the alliance of the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) with the BJP.

One can trace the growth of Jagan Mohan Reddy and the success of his party, the Yuvajana Shramika Raithu Congress Party (YSRCP), through the last decade, to the underlying socio-political developments in Andhra Pradesh.

Jagan describes the 151-seat victory as God's script and that the results were a message from above with the TDP winning 23 seats in the state legislative assembly elections and three seats in the Lok Sabha elections, which is providentially the same number of MLAs and MPs that were poached by the TDP from Reddy's party in 2014.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections saw a slew of election debates revolving around the theme 'Modi vs who'. However, the effects of such discourse at the state level outside the Hindi belt where regional parties are dominant are often discussed less, to say the least.

In this context, a state like Andhra Pradesh, which had both the Assembly and general elections held together, is an interesting case. Notably, this is the first election in the state after the bifurcation in 2014.

This piece argues the ramifications of the electoral dominance of regional parties of the state in the elections.

Telugu pride and its early emergence:

The state saw the dominance of the Congress and Left parties in the early decades after independence. The 1980s saw the emergence of the TDP founded by veteran film star NT Rama Rao (NTR) and the party got instant success in the polls.

It is observed that NTR's electoral success could be attributed to his invocation of a sense of regional pride, in his case the 'Telugu pride' against the existing political setup, which had its master far away from the state. Barring the Telangana region, the state saw a two-way fight between the Congress and the TDP before the 2014 elections.

Congress party: From a major player to an outsider

2009 was a fatal year for Andhra Pradesh, it saw the sudden demise of its then chief minister, YS Rajasekhara Reddy. The shock was ill received by the state and multiple cases of suicide were recorded across the state. Konijeti Rosaiah took over as the chief minister, as decided by the Congress at the centre.

The following year, Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of Rajasekhara Reddy and a sitting MP, led a march called the 'Odarpu Yatra' (consolation tour). This was met with the opposition from the ruling party at the centre, but Jagan Mohan Reddy decided to go along with the march despite this. This was one of the earliest publicly noticeable rift between Jagan Mohan Reddy and the Congress party.

The high-handedness of the Congress gave Jagan a chance to play the local card. He quit the Congress and acquired the party YSR Congress and took leadership of the same. The bifurcation of the state also affected the Congress's credibility and consequently the floating votes of the state, which at times favoured the Congress, was lost.

The Congress was soon viewed as an outsider party that paid little to no heed to the needs of the Telugu people, the repercussions of which were evidently seen in the 2014 elections. The 2014 state elections proved to be the perfect arena for the YSR Congress to prove its mettle and the fledgling party secured 70 of the 294 seats (undivided AP), forming the opposition in the state.

The Congress secured only 21 seats (undivided AP). An interesting pattern that can be seen in the 2014 election is the transfer of votes from the Congress to the YSR Congress in the constituencies that were considered Congress bastions in 2009. Moreover, in the current elections, the Congress, on its own, proved to be a non-player in the state by securing a vote share (1.17 per cent) less than the vote share recorded for NOTA (1.28 per cent).

BJP: From a dominant ally to an outsider

After facing defeat in the 2004 elections, the then TDP chief, N Chandrababu Naidu, decided to walk out from the NDA alliance, citing the party's overtly-communal image. The 2014 election proved for the perfect opportunity for the TDP to enter into an alliance with the NDA as the keynote of the election was clearly anti-incumbency at the Centre and state.

The NDA was also accommodative of the TDP's request in issues concerning the development of the state in the wake of bifurcation. The NDA was established as the clear victory at the Centre as well as in Andhra Pradesh.

The victory enjoyed by the TDP, led by Chandrababu Naidu, by securing 117 seats in total (undivided AP) in the 2014 state elections, can be attributed to an arc of astute decisions and actions by the TDP.

Factors including Chandrababu Naidu's development agenda, striking a balance in the state's caste politics, the TDP's timely alliance with the BJP and gaining the support of the Kapu caste by gaining the support of Pawan Kalyan, played pivotal roles in securing the required margin.

Soon after the 2014 elections, the TDP's alliance with the BJP was under heavy strain, as the NDA had backtracked on their promises, culminating in Jaitley's emphatic refusal to the demand for Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh in March 2018. This led to the breakup of the TDP-BJP alliance. Since then, Chandrababu Naidu has been growingly critical of the Modi led central party.

With the pressure mounting in the state, the monsoon of 2018 saw a 'no-confidence motion' against the ruling NDA at the Centre. Though the government won the motion emphatically, Naidu termed the motion as a matter of "majority vs morality".

The rhetoric aside, essentially the TDP's breakaway and the subsequent events at the Centre can be viewed as Naidu's attempt at reinvoking Telugu pride, where the outsider, the BJP, betrayed the ordinary Telugu person.

In other words, much like the 2014 elections where the people of Andhra Pradesh saw the Congress as outsiders, the BJP was considered an outsider in the 2019 elections. The same was reflected in the 2019 state election vote share with the BJP securing just 0.84 per cent of the total votes.

Pawan Kalyan: From kingmaker to a new player

The entry of actor Pawan Kalyan into mainstream politics created a stir in the 2014 elections. In March of 2014, the actor formed a new party called the Jana Sena Party (JSP). Pawan Kalyan enjoys the support of the Kapu caste, which accounts for close to 20 per cent of the residual state.

The JSP did not participate in the 2014 elections, but the actor heavily campaigned for the NDA and extended his complete support.

After the 2014 elections, despite TDP's invocation of the Telugu sentiment at a broader level, it lost a local ally in Pawan Kalyan as the JSP chief walked away citing the TDP's failure in securing Special Category Status and its indifference towards farmers.

Till date, in spite of their numerical dominance, the Kapus have not been able to produce a chief ministerial candidate. The vote of the community is observed to have gotten split between major parties with a host of other communities supporting either party based on their inclinations and promises.

However, in the 2019 election, the emergence of Pawan Kalyan opened up the need to reconfigure caste coalitions to come out victorious. Pawan attempted to make up for his party's lack of organisational structure and political experience with his extensive campaign that was targeted at winning over the Kapu caste and the youth of the state.

However, the campaign did not translate into votes in the state election, with the party winning just one seat and the party chief Pawan himself losing in both constituencies that he contested in. Yet the party secured 6.8 per cent vote share across the state, splitting the Kapu votes in many constituencies.

This vote share cut into on the TDP's vote share across the state, further exacerbating the TDP's loss, as observed by one of TDP's leaders. This coupled with Jagan's extensive campaign and the welfare he promises to usher in could be seen as the reason for the massive difference in vote share too along with seats between the TDP and the YSRCP.

In other words, while caste had its role, one could argue that the play of castes is happening in the background with the issues getting more prominence.

In the way of concluding, one can argue that while caste identity and caste politics have always been pivotal in shaping the outcome of elections, one cannot deny that the underlying issues that a common Telugu man faces are the same. These issues will always remain a prominent factor in deciding the fate of the state, allowing common identity and caste identity to play a different dynamic when compared to a few other states.

-Vignesh is a doctoral student at King's India Institute, King's College London.