Jammu and Kashmir bifurcation good, but challenges ahead
Withering away of J&K is a good thing, but to deal with challenges ahead require political skills and wisdom, writes Ambassador P Stobdan
This government has so far made a distinct shift in policy to deal with Pakistan by mending the chronic nature of Kashmir imbroglio while resetting the internal parameters of Jammu and Kashmir.
Although, the country has withstood the worst period of militancy in Kashmir, but, given the fraught situation that currently exists, an urgent political intervention was needed. There have been imperative: a) change in Pakistan’s strategy since China’s launch of the $62 billion CPEC project in April 2015, aimed at bolstering Pakistani economic growth; b) attempts made to indigenize the Kashmiri movement since 2016; c) shift of battle-hardened IS, Al-Qaida Jihadis from Syria to Afghanistan to destabilise Kashmir, Xinjiang and parts of Southern Russia.
The American peace deal with the Taliban was to be seen in the context. The US and Pakistan have rebooted its strategy by making new adjustment while keeping their eyes on India and China in their minds.
From India’s perspective, a popular uprising in Kashmir could not be controlled despite using hard force since 2016. Instead, it may have resulted in permanently losing the hearts and minds of people. The political narrative in Kashmir has changed after youths took over the reins of dissent. Things seemed to have worsened in the absence of any political process. New Delhi had no other political option than reengineering the State structure.
Bifurcation was unexpected but certainly came as an out of the box thinking.
While politically it has been easy to bring about such a drastic change, but managing the aftermath would demand knowledge on-ground situation, political skills, and the ability of the top leadership to demonstrate or leverage relationships with multiple stakeholders with a clear vision.
Of the solutions being discussed, continuing with the status quo 370 was certainly untenable because that constitutional arrangement was undemocratic, anti-people and anti-development.
Jammu & Kashmir may have had a superficial image of a coherent geo-political identity, but the state was anything but homogeneous. The internal political contradiction within the state was well known but the constitutional hurdles of 370 had become an alibi for non-action.
Besides, none of the three regions are monolithic in their ethnic, religious, linguistic and political composition. There have been inter and intra-regional tensions along multiple faultiness.
Bifurcation is a political solution but challenges remain ahead. Fresh thinking is required especially to bring about a profound change in perception. Now that resetting has been done, it is time to bring about a change in perception about the functioning and responsibilities of the new administrative units.
It is popularly believed that power brokers J&K have systematically exploited the situation. The Centre and the governor are on the right track of revitalizing all anti-corruption agencies and open all pending cases against politicians, separatists and bureaucrats. Also, New Delhi should evaluate thoroughly the cultural dimension of Kashmir vis- -vis the nation positively, not behave like an ostrich sticking its head in the sand. Essentially, the Centre needs to visualize what it wants instead of envisioning what it doesn’t, so that the cycle of mistrust can be broken. It needs to heal the wounds in Kashmir in an explicitly political and practical way.
The first step is to set something positive in motion by engaging in a dialogue process. Kashmiris are not sufficiently empowered; even a political representation at the Centre is missing. This leaves no space even for ordinary people to communicate with the leadership.
Economically, too, a development pathway, for example, to revive the traditional trade routes of Kashmir could propel a change. Initiatives have to support Kashmir’s development aspirations and reduce vulnerability, especially tackling inequalities induced by decades of mismanagement and corruption.
The government must revisit the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and, especially, the Public Safety Act (PSA), which has led to wrongful detentions of thousands of young people without charge and trial, including minors branded as stone-pelters’. Preventive detention under the PSA has mostly become a punitive’ rather than preventive’ measure. In fact, those detained are being feted by the public and treated as heroes. So, despite such laws, resistance levels have only grown stronger.
Only a perception change can now prevent further rise of anti-India sentiments. A careful appraisal of building an alternative is needed to prevent Kashmir from being alienated irrevocably.
While, J&K story will continue but granting Ladakh the UT status is certainly a masterstroke. It is a strategic move even might become a kernel for boundary solution with China. Now that J&K is gone, there is no need to remain hung-up on the territorial integrity of J&K the Aksai Chin issue should become flexible.
Clearly, the time had ripped to deal with the status quo and widespread shortcomings that are not without detrimental to national interests. Abrogation of 370 and withering away of J&K is a welcome move. It should integrate Ladakh fully with the rest of the country as an equal stakeholder in building the nation.
The situation around Ladakh has changed rapidly in the past 20 years; the people have their own aspirations. The people of Ladakh seem to rejoice their demand being fulfilled after seventy years of struggle. The new arrangement should help preserve Ladakh’s Himalayan identity which is more distinct by any yardstick compared to Jammu and Kashmir.
Clearly, Ladakh’s problems couldn’t have been addressed without the engagement and ideas, thoughts, actions and wisdom of the people themselves to be able to reflect their own regional distinctiveness and aspirations.
It should help remove the prolonged political neglect of Ladakh by putting the key issues on the forefront of national attention. The UT status should cater to the rising expectations of the people especially the younger generation to prevent them from falling adrift; to exploit the full political potentials and economic interests of Ladakh.
(The author is a distinguished academician, diplomat, author and foreign policy expert. He has been India’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Republic of Kyrgyzstan until recently. He is the Founding President of the Ladakh International Centre.)