A deep dive into Congress' Kerala cruise

Kerala stands firmly behind Congress, no matter the crushing defeat it suffered elsewhere in general elections.

Rahul Gandhi's party won 15 of the 16 seats it fought in the southern state. Overall, the UDF coalition, which Congress leads, swept 19 of the state's total 20 seats.

The result delivers a huge blow to Kerala ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), now sidelined to a single seat.

This mandate, analysts say, would also affect the CPIM-CPI prospects nationally.

On its part, the BJP-led NDA once again failed to open its account in the state.

On May 19, soon after the voting concluded across the country, an India Today-Axis-My-India exit poll released its predictions. The survey was spot on -- it forecast a landslide for the Congress-led UDF with 15-16 seats in Kerala. The LDF was projected to get three-five seats and the BJP was given a distant possibility of one seat.

The actual results showed the UDF increasing its 2014 tally of 12 to 19 in this election and the LDF plummeting down from eight to one.

The BJP, which failed to open its account, came second in Thiruvananthapuram constituency, where the exit-poll survey had predicted some remote chance for the saffron party. Thiruvananthapuram is the only constituency in the state where the BJP could manage the number-two slot in election results.

The results showed that the UDF garnered 47 per cent of the votes, while the LDF came second with 35 per cent followed by the NDA at 16 per cent.

Other groups had to settle for a mere two per cent votes.

A religion-wise vote breakdown by an Axis-My-India post-poll survey shows the UDF was the most favoured coalition in the state.

While 38 per cent each of Hindu voters backed the UDF and the LDF, the NDA could secure only 21 per cent votes of Kerala's majority community despite its big Sabarimala push.

According to the post-poll survey, 58 per cent of the Muslims and 56 per cent of the Christians favoured the UDF. On the other hand, 31 per cent Muslims and 30 per cent Christians supported the Left parties. The BJP could secure only eight per cent of Muslim votes and eleven per cent of the Christian.

However, the LDF managed to get 44 per cent support from other communities while the UDF and the NDA got 29 per cent and 26 per cent each.

In terms of the voters' financial status, the story continues to be the same. The UDF maintained over 44 per cent vote-share across all family segments.

The survey reveals that 55 per cent of Kerala's rich families, with Rs 31,000 and above as monthly income, supported Congress.

The LDF's vote-share comes down as the monthly income level goes up. While 38 per cent of the families below the poverty line supported the LDF, the share dipped to 20 per cent in the income range going up to Rs 31,000.

The BJP maintains a 16 per cent vote-share from the BPL to income level of Rs 20,000. It goes up to 21 per cent among richer families.

The UDF remains the dominant party among the illiterate and educated voters alike. The Congress-led coalition steadily maintains a support of 46-48 per cent across all sections.

The LDF gets 40 per cent and 37 per cent support of voters who are illiterate and have studied up to eight grade respectively.

Further, as the education level increases to 10th, 12th, graduation and postgraduation, the share becomes 34 per cent, 35 per cent, 33 per cent and 30 per cent respectively.

The post-poll survey further reveals that the support for the BJP increases as the education levels go up.

According to the age-wise breakdown of the vote-share, Congress seems to be the most accepted party across multiple groups.

From the first-time voters/youngsters (18-25 years) to the elderly (61 and above), Congress garnered an overall average vote-share of 47 per cent. It's most liked (48 per cent) by voters of the 26-35 age bracket. The number dips to 45 per cent in the elderly category.

The LDF, however, is liked by 39 per cent of the first-time voters and 38 per cent among the elderly. The number goes down to 33 per cent among the 36-50 age group.

The NDA gets 17 per cent vote-share from 36-50 and 51-60 age group. The Axis-My-India data show that only 13 per cent of the first-time voters supported the saffron party.

The survey revealed how people in various jobs voted for the major parties in Kerala. The UDF and LDF come neck-and-neck among students (43-42 per cent respectively), farmers (41-40 per cent) and unemployed voters (46-44 per cent).

The UDF walks away with a comfortable ten per cent plus lead among housewives, farm labourers, rickshaw drivers and small shop owners.

Among labourers, cobblers and skilled professionals, the average gap remains between five and seven per cent. The NDA got more than 20 per cent votes only from rickshaw drivers and skilled professionals.

In the government-service sector, the ruling LDF can claim advantage with 50 per cent of the votes followed by Congress (34 per cent) and the BJP (13 per cent).

Among working professionals, the UDF maintains its lead with 46 per cent. But the NDA, with 28 per cent support, has managed to displace the LDF (24 per cent) from its second spot.

Despite Kerala's rural-urban divide not clearly demarcated, the UDF continues its dream run across both sections. It gets 48 per cent votes compared to the LDF's 35 per cent in rural areas. The numbers become 46 per cent and 35 per cent respectively in cities and towns.

The NDA gets 18 per cent vote-share in urban areas, up from three per cent in villages.

The UDF has attracted 48 per cent of the male voters and the LDF 33 per cent.

Among female voters, the UDF leads with 45 per cent. The NDA gets 16 per cent support from male and female voters each, the post-poll survey shows.

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