Valley Chills | Jammu & Kashmir

Two nascent political parties, the Jammu and Kashmir People's Movement (JKPM) and the Dogra Swabhimaan Sangathan (DSS), helmed by IAS officer-turned-politician Shah Faesal and former BJP legislator Chaudhary Lal Singh, respectively, have been making their presence felt ahead of the Lok Sabha election. Faesal's party had earlier said they would contest the LS poll, but opted out later, probably as tacit support to the secular parties to keep the BJP at bay.
Singh, meanwhile, is giving the BJP the jitters after he filed nomination papers for the Jammu-Poonch seat on March 25.

The controversial leader, who had taken out marches in support of the accused in the horrific Kathua rape and murder case last year, has public backing with his emotive Jammu-centric issues. Analysts say Singh could make things difficult for the BJP. The Valley's Baramulla constituency, comprising 15 assembly segments and areas falling along the LoC, should see higher turnouts than Anantnag and Srinagar (which poll in the first phase on April 11).

With sitting Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) MP Muzaffar Hussain Baig opting out, the contest in Baramulla is between Akbar Lone of the National Conference (NC) and People's Conference (PC) nominee Raja Ajaz Ali, a former inspector general of police. The Sajjad Lone-led PC enjoys wide support in Kupwara and Handwara, but ex-MLA Engineer Rasheed's (Awami Ittehad Party) entry has complicated matters. Faesal, who hails from north Kashmir's Lolab, is said to be rooting for Rasheed.

In Srinagar and Anantnag, the poll boycott called by the separatists is expected to have an impact on the turnout. Both constituencies feature political heavyweights, including Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. After much speculation, the Congress has fielded J&K Pradesh Congress Committee chief G.A. Mir from Anantnag. His entry will queer the pitch for PDP chief Mufti, who was facing greenhorns, former J&K high court judge Hasnain Masoodi (NC) and Mohammad Yousuf Sofi (BJP), earlier. Mir, a former state tourism minister, hails from Anantnag's Damhal village. Elected from the Dooru assembly seat in 2002 and 2008, Mir lost by a narrow margin of 161 votes in 2014. He was an accused in a sex scandal in 2006, but was acquitted after the prosecution witnesses turned hostile in 2012.

Much of PDP's support base in south Kashmir has shrunk following its unpopular alliance with the BJP. Adding to this is the disillusionment within, which has led to the exit of seven ex-MLAs. "The leadership never acknowledged the problems of our workers when in government," says a senior PDP functionary.

In Jammu, the BJP is in a similar fix. The party has repeated its candidates, Jugal Kishore from Jammu-Poonch and Jitendra Singh from Udhampur-Doda. But the main challenge is from within the ranks-the Lal Singh-led DSS. Also, as part of a seat-sharing arrangement, the NC will support the Congress's Raman Bhalla in Jammu and Vikramaditya Singh in Udhampur. The PDP too will support the Congress in Jammu. In Ladakh, where the BJP made history by winning in 2014 with a margin of just 36 votes, the NC and the Congress are hosting a joint candidate this time. The BJP's worries have grown after its MP, Buddhist leader Thupstan Chhewang, quit the party as well as Parliament last year.