BJP Holds the Centre | Madhya Pradesh
Congress euphoria in the state proved short-lived. With the saffron party swamping the Lok Sabha stakes, the state government seems in peril.
Most Congress leaders in Madhya Pradesh took the BJP's 27 out of 29 score in 2014 as an aberration; 2019 shows it wasn't. It also shows that even well-entrenched political dynasts can be felled-as Jyotiraditya Scindia has been in Guna losing to K.P. Yadav, once his Saansad Pratinidhi-when people vote in the name of one supreme leader at the Centre.
Since the 1990s, the MP electorate has swung wildly in its choice of party for the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, even when they have been held a few months apart. In that sense, the current verdict for the Congress is hardly a surprise, even though the party had broken the BJP's 15-year rule in the state just five months back.
In 1998, the BJP had won 30 and the Congress 10 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in united MP. Some months later, the Congress managed to win the assembly election. In 2008, Shivraj Singh Chouhan became CM for a second term, with the BJP winning 143 of the state's 230 seats, and the Congress 71. In the 2009 general election a few months later, the Congress won 12 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats. With elections becoming more and more personality-driven, the voter makes the distinction between his choices for the Lok Sabha and assembly polls very clear.
We seem to have been unsuccessful in taking our programmes to the people. I congratulate Modiji and the BJP on this victory
The Congress's dismal show in the Lok Sabha poll points to its failure to capitalise on the mood for change in the state just some months ago. Nor does the BJP-led NDA government's massive win at the Centre augur well for the Congress government in the state given that it rests on a wafer-thin majority. But, first, why couldn't the Congress convert its assembly poll performance to the Lok Sabha election?
For one, the Kamal Nath government got all of two and a half months to deliver on its election promises before the model code of conduct for the Lok Sabha poll kicked in. Even in this time, the government primarily focused on farm loan waivers, which not only drained the state of financial resources but also compelled the government to curtail welfare programmes and, worse, has not yielded any electoral dividend. The focus on waivers also did not give CM Kamal Nath time to act on his strengths, like bringing in investment and jobs, as he did in Chhindwara.
The enhancement of OBC quota from 14 to 27 per cent also seems to have left the target group unenthused. Besides, the coordination between Congress bigwigs apparent in the assembly poll wasn't to be seen in the general election.
Where does this leave the Congress government?
Relations between the top BJP leadership and the Congress government touched a nadir after the income tax raids this April on the chief minister's family members and associates. In case the Union government proceeds with the charges, tensions will only mount.
The Congress has 114 MLAs in the 230-member house, and is supported by four independents, one SP and two BSP MLAs. BJP leaders, including general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, have been openly predicting the government's demise post the general election. "CM Kamal Nath claimed he would win 22 seats. Now there's a question mark over whether he will remain in office for the next 22 days," Vijayvargiya said in Indore on May 19. On May 20, leader of the opposition Gopal Bhargava dashed off a letter to Governor Anandiben Patel demanding a special session of the Vidhan Sabha. "The Congress has not come out clear on the farm loan waiver. Various claims are floating around. A session will clarify everything," Bhargava told india today. The real reason for the session, political observers suggest, was to hold a floor test. Bhargava's demand for the special session was rejected but a session will be called to pass the budget. Given the history of such attempts by the BJP in the past, one can't rule out the possibility of destabilising the government. The BJP's strength in the assembly also came down by one as G.S. Damor, the BJP MLA from Jhabua, won the Ratlam Lok Sabha seat. A bypoll would now be held in Jhabua and is likely to be fiercely fought, given the importance of numbers in the assembly.
In Kamal Nath, the Congress has a shrewd politician to counter these moves. The coming months will test his political acumen.