Mr PM, Delhi is bursting at the seams

As a UN report warns that Delhi will be world's most populous city in 8 years, its creaking infrastructure is heading for collapse

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In his Independence Day address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for greater discussion and mass awareness about population explosion, saying small-family policy is also a form of patriotism and those following it should be given due respect.

"Ever-rising population is a matter of concern. It can lead to problems. Can we do justice to the aspirations of our children? One must think how we will provide resources for future generations," the PM said.

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While he expressed concern for future generations in the country, the population explosion dangers are clear and present in Delhi.

Sample these: The National Capital's population is 19 million. In two years, it will be 23 million, according to the Master Plan of Delhi (MPD)-2021. A United Nations report says Delhi, taken with its urban agglomeration, could be the world's most populous city by 2028 with 37.2 million people.

At present, Tokyo is the world's most populous city with an agglomeration of 37 million inhabitants, followed by New Delhi's 29 million, according to the report.

THE TRIGGERS

Migration is considered one of the main causes of Delhi's rising population. In 2001, 60% of the people added to the city came from a natural growth of population. The remaining 40% were migrants.

In 2011, migrants comprised 45% of people added to the Capital's population. According MPD projections, the share of migrants to the additional population will be 50% in 2021.

"In the last three decades, migration from lessdeveloped states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand has increased drastically, impacting infrastructure and resources," said industrialist Radhe Shyam Mittal.

"Also, family planning policies are not being implemented at the ground level. There is a lack of awareness among masses."

VANISHING HOUSES

About 43,000 homes have been built in Delhi under several schemes of the Centre since 2005, while the population has increased significantly during this period as about 700,000 people come here every year, according to research firm Demographia. No wonder, the National Capital is facing a shortage of 20 lakh housing units, multiple reports suggest.

"Our focus is on PPP-model housing to cater to increasing needs," Tarun Kapoor, Vice Chairman, Delhi Development Authority (DDA), told Mail Today, in an interview last week.

A land-pooling policy is likely to see 1.7 million housing units in smart and sustainable neighbourhoods being constructed on Delhi's outskirts in the next few years.

"We would rather focus on auctioning of land and get the private sector to build flats. We will play a facilitator," said, Kapoor. DDA has sold four lakh houses while 60,000 are under construction.

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CRIPPLING HEALTHCARE

Among 111 major cities in the country, Delhi came last in the health category, according to a survey released by the Centre last year.

And it's not surprising. Hundreds of patients at top government health facilities in Delhi are being given dates that range between six months and two years. The crisis is primarily because of increasing patient numbers and a massive shortage of doctors, beds and equipment.

The most affected are AIIMS, Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Govind Ballabh Pant Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education & Research, Sanjay Gandhi Memorial Hospital, Lok Nayak Hospital, Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences (IHBAS), Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Hospital and Babu Jagjiwan Ram Hospital.

Dr Rajiv Chhibber, public health communications specialist, said, "There are global studies that big families don't get enough resources. If you look at what the PM has said, he is looking at development and economic benefits. We need to plan for the future."

PARCHED CITY

Official data suggests that Delhi faced a crippling shortage of 300 MGD (million gallons a day) of drinking water this summer. This is because the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) is supplying 900 MGD of water, against a peak demand of 1,200 MGD, resulting in a massive shortage and a widespread public outcry.

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A recent report of NITI Aayog says 21 Indian cities, including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, will run out of groundwater by 2020, On August 12, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said that in coming years, water would be a major concern but the document is creating "more alarm".

"Through the steps taken by the Delhi government, we will not allow the situation to reach to an alarming level," he said.

POLICE

The city police are reeling under an acute shortage of manpower, affecting law and order, reveal multiple reports, including one by Praja Foundation earlier. Data suggests Delhi has a sanctioned strength of 95,564 police personnel, of which 10,481 positions are vacant.

TRAFFIC, TRANSPORT MESS

The number of vehicles in Delhi had surged to 1.09 crore by March 2018, according to Delhi's Economic Survey 2018-19, showing a growth of 5.81 percentage points from the previous year.

In the absence of robust public transportation systems, many in Delhi use private vehicles which further chokes roads and spikes pollution levels. Traffic jams mean people waste time and also money on fuel.

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Delhi is in need of 11,000 buses. After a gap of nine years, the city got its first new fleet of 25 buses last month. These buses are part of a planned fleet of 4,000 being purchased to augment the city's ailing public transport system.

Many say Metro services have solved the problem to a large extent, but trains ply not upto the capacity because of a lack of proper last-mile connectivity. The Delhi government recently announced free rides for women on CNG buses, a pre-election sop that it plans to replicate in Metro too.

WASTE MANAGEMENT

Ghazipur landfill, Delhi's stinking mountain of trash, is rising to never-before heights and is likely to dwarf the Taj Mahal next year. Municipal officials said that the pile of garbage in East Delhi is already 65 metres (213 feet) high.

And despite a ban on dumping garbage, the height of the mountain grows 10 metre (32 feet) every year, according to officials. At this rate, the landmark, which has become synonymous with the city's waste management failure, will be 75 metres (246 feet) high by mid 2020. The dumping site at Ghazipur was opened in 1984 and reached its sanctioned height of 20 metres in 2002, when it should have been closed.

Apart from Ghazipur, the waste generated in other areas of Delhi is dumped at the Bhalaswa and Okhla sites. Civic agencies have for years been demanding more land from DDA to set up landfills and waste-to-energy plants.

Experts said the civic agency had miserably failed to adopt waste management plans and the need was a shift in mindset for collecting and dumping waste.

INADEQUATE URBAN PLANNING

Experts suggest Delhi's main housing, commercial hubs & govt establishments must be taken to its periphery, in line with NCR's concept Urban planners are collecting data on land, housing, transport, environment, heritage and water for Master Plan of Delhi (MPD)-2041 which has to come in two years. The present master plan (2021), which was notified in 2007 and was prepared by an in-house team of DDA, would expire in 2021.

Delhi's first master plan was prepared in 1962. The next was released in 1990 for the year 2001. AK Jain, former commissioner (planning) with DDA and one of the planners involved in drafting MPD-2021 said given the population explosion, Delhi would not be liveable in times to come. According to him, Delhi has to develop, not in isolation, but with the National Capital Region (NCR).

"Even the 1962 master plan had kept population explosion in consideration. But no one developed NCR towns like they should be. We have state governments in UP and Haryana who sold plots to people in NCR towns but didn't keep in mind the population explosion," Jain said.

He said that the key problem is that the NCR Planning Board (NCRPB), mandated to undertake integrated planning for Delhi and its neighbouring towns, was reduced to a toothless body. Constituted by an act of Parliament, the NCRPB Act, 1985, the board is mandated to prepare a regional plan and evolve harmonised policies on land uses and infrastructure development in the entire NCR. "But the board has not been effective primarily because land is a state subject and none of Delhi's neighbours in UP and Haryana want to give concessions to Delhi."

The population of NCR, which now includes 23 districts, was 46 million in 2011 Census when many areas were not added.

Its population is projected to be 64 million by 2021

NATIONAL SCENE

India is a signatory to the International Conference on Population and Development Declaration, signed in 1994. The declaration supports reproductive rights of couples to decide the number and spacing of children. This also explains India's reluctance on the controversial twochild policy.

The United Nation's 2017 World Population Prospect estimates that India's population would surpass China's in 2024. It is projected to touch 1.5 billion by 2030. The 2017 revision, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs stated that China had a population of 1.41 billion, while India had a population of 1.34 billion.

India accounts for 18 per cent of the world's total population. The report had also warned that large and persistent economic and demographic asymmetries were likely to emerge as a result of this.

The Population Foundation of India (PFI) that works with the union ministry of health and family welfare, welcomed the PM's call and need for policy changes in family planning and achieving population stabilisation.

"This would help us achieve greater socio-economic development and meet the sustainable development goals India has committed to. We are highly encouraged by the Prime Minister's call to improve awareness and showcase positive behaviours for motivating people to adopt family planning," the foundation said in a statement.

"Population Foundation of India advocates for a rights-based, voluntary approach to family planning. We call for a policy that ensures gender equality, and empowers women and men to be able to exercise their choice by providing adequate information and services within their reach."

POLITICAL VOICES

After the PM's address, Chief Minister of India's most populous state UP, Yogi Adityanath, tweeted in support, "The government wants everyone should be given access to resources, everyone should have a quality life, but population explosion has become a major challenge in front of the present government

Hence we have to think beyond caste, religion and creed. I appeal to the 23 crore citizens in Uttar Pradesh to seek inspiration from the PM's message," he said. Delhi BJP chief and MP Manoj Tiwari also welcomed the PM's message. "It is much needed," he said.

(With inputs from Chayyanika Nigam and Ajay Kumar in New Delhi and Gurugram)

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