Indiana is behind nearly every other state in corn planting. Billions are on the line.

Josh Petry was in the middle of his field in Hancock County on Wednesday when the clouds started to roll in. He knew he needed to get out — and fast — or risk getting his tractor stuck in the mud. So he raced toward the edge of the field, parked the tractor on a grassy patch, and ran to a pickup driven by his brother.

"For running 10 feet, yeah, I was wet," Petry said.

The torrential downpour, accompanied by dime-sized hail, would cancel any planting for the rest of the week.

Petry and his family are among the thousands of Indiana farmers struggling to plant their corn crop due to wet weather this spring. Like others, the Petrys scrambled during a few recent dry days, hoping to get his crop planted, but Thursday's rain stopped them in their tracks.

"I knew that was a pipe dream," Petry said.

More than 5.5 million acres of Indiana farmland were scheduled to be planted with corn this year. The state's farmers had only planted 31 percent of that as of June 2, the point in the year when farmers are typically packing up their planters for the season. 

Indiana is behind almost every other state in its corn planting. That could put upward pressure on meat prices, economists say. And now the soybean crop, already affected by a trade war, is starting to fall behind, too.

Running out of time

Last week's brief reprieve in rainy weather sent farmers in Rush, Hancock and Shelby counties scrambling to get their corn planted. They'd already missed the first window to get all of their seed in the ground, and a second window for late planting that'll likely result in lower corn yields is closing on them.

"As you start to plant corn after the first week of June, it's more risky because you have less summer available for that corn to grow," said Michael Langemeier, a professor of agriculture economics at Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "So chances of early frost, chances of inclement weather of any sort in the summer, leads to more risk."

It's not the amount of rain that's the problem, according to Mike Ryan, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Indianapolis. Rainfall is barely above average. Two years ago, the region saw about five inches more precipitation, but without the impacts on farming.

The real problem is Indiana had a wet winter followed by constant rainfall during spring.

"We just couldn’t get an extended period of dry weather," Ryan said. "Even though the amounts haven’t been excessive, the ground just hasn’t had any time to dry out."

The ideal window for planting corn is from about April 20 to May 25. As that window closed this year, only 22 percent of the crop had been planted. At the same time last year, 95 percent of Indiana's corn was in the ground.

At this point, farmers have few options but to plant when they can and hope for the best. Even with this option, insurance coverage declines 1 percent each day farmers choose to plant after June 6. If weather prevents them from planting entirely, insurance could provide some compensation but at a much lower rate.

Farmers may also turn to seed swapping — planting soybeans where they had intended to plant corn, according to Jeffrey Volenec, an agronomy professor at Purdue. It's past the optimal time to plant soybeans, too, but the plants produce beans all summer long, whereas corn needs all summer to mature and dry before harvest.

Switching to soybeans may not be a profitable decision. The price of soybean futures is not strong — falling to about $8.56 a bushel Friday after closing at $8.69 Thursday. Soybean farmers also are grappling with the impact of wet weather, and the market for their commodity has been pressured by the months-long U.S.-China trade war and tit-for-tat tariffs. China was the largest consumer of U.S. soybeans, buying about one-third of the U.S. crop, but has since turned to other nations.

"It's not like we're not sending any soybeans to China in the most recent year, but it's down substantially," Langemeier said. "We don't know exactly how this is going to play out. Not only is the price not very good, the price prospects don't look very good."

Another consideration for farmers deciding whether to continue planting is the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Market Facilitation Program. The program announced in August was supposed to provide $4.7 billion in relief to farmers affected by retaliatory tariffs. Then in May the government announced an additional $14.5 billion in direct payments to producers of corn, soybeans and other commodities.

But it's a gamble, said Jim Mintert, a Purdue agricultural economics professor. Farmers need to plant to qualify for the payments, and they can't take prevented insurance. The USDA also has yet to specify how large the payments will be, though the agency did say that more relief would be available to U.S. farmers this year than last. 

"The question is how much of an incentive is that providing farmers to continue planting?" he said. "It's unclear."

More expensive meat, dairy

What is clear about the current predicament facing Indiana farmers is how much an already-volatile market wants their corn. 

The price of corn futures has increased steadily — rising from about $3.40 in April to above $4 per bushel — in anticipation of a smaller yield from the Corn Belt, a region in the Midwest that extends from western Ohio to eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas, said David Oppedahl, senior business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The price of corn was at $4.15 at the close of Friday. Higher prices encourage corn users to ration the commodity, Langemeier said, adding that the vast majority of U.S. corn stays in the United States. It's difficult for ethanol and livestock producers to cut back on corn because there are no good substitutes, he said, noting the export market could be squeezed if corn is rationed. In most cases, ethanol and livestock producers will just pay the higher prices.

Corn is Indiana's top agricultural commodity, generating about $3.28 billion in sales and $636 million in export dollars, according to the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. Because it's unclear how many fields Indiana corn producers managed to plant during last week's rain reprieve, neither Purdue economists nor the state could say how big of a hit Indiana's economy would take.

It's too early to predict, they said.

Economists said there should be minimal pass-through of higher corn prices to consumers of food-grade corn, though there could be some pressure on meat prices given corn's use in livestock feed. 

"It's not like we're going to have entire farms that don't get planted," Langemeier said. "We're going to have fields ... that don't get planted and that could potentially add up to quite a few acres."

The future is uncertain

Farmers took advantage of an extended — by this season's standards — break in the wetness to plant as much as they could early last week.

Aaron Conaway, president of Total Seed Production, raises crops for seed on about 11,000 acres in Tipton and Clinton counties. He and about 30 members of his staff worked round the clock, working 18-hour shifts and taking turns sleeping and doing different jobs for 55 hours straight. That window of dryness allowed the longest stretch of planting all year.

"Up till then, we would only have a 5, 6, 7 hours of weather where we'd be able to get into the fields," Conaway said.

Even once the crop is planted, there's no telling if what comes up will be marketable, Conaway said.

When soil dries after a rain, it can form a hard cap that is difficult for the sprouts to break through. Corn takes time to mature, so the late-planted crop needs to be ready before the first frost. If that comes early this fall, this year's corn crop might be ruined.

There's also the expectation that summer will likely be as wet as spring, according to Ryan of NWS. Plants need water, but too much can impact how much they yield and if they come up at all.

For now, Oppedahl, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago, said prevented crop insurance payments are expected to spike — though it's unclear by how much. 

"What I tell people is, this difficult spring will have a long tail," Conaway said.

Call IndyStar reporter Alexandria Burris at 317-617-2690. Follow her on Twitter: @allyburris.

Emily Hopkins covers the environment for IndyStar. Contact them at 317-444-6409 or emily.hopkins@indystar.com. Follow them on Twitter: @indyemapolis.

IndyStar's environmental reporting project is made possible through the generous support of the nonprofit Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.