Key differences between Indiana and Indianapolis' reopening plans

Mayor Joe Hogsett announced his plans to begin the reopening of Indianapolis on Wednesday, based on a number of criteria. Those factors differ from the guiding principles Gov. Eric Holcomb is using for Indiana's reopening. Even the federal plan, "Opening Up America Again," has more stringent criteria than Indiana lists as its major deciding factors.

Indiana outlined four "guiding principles" as it moves to reopen the state:

• A decreased number of COVID-19 patient hospitalizations for 14 days
• Retaining surge capacity for critical care beds and ventilators
• Retaining the ability to test all symptomatic workers, in addition to health care workers, essential workers and first responders
• Having systems in place to conduct contact tracing

Notably absent from Indiana's public list of criteria are decreased coronavirus deaths, decreased cases and decreased positive testing rates, all of which Indianapolis says it is relying on to make decisions. 

The federal "Open Up America Again" plan is more in line with Indianapolis' reopening plan than with the state's. It suggests a downward trajectory in cases, as well as a decreased positivity rate, as criteria to meet before proceeding to a phased comeback.

Why are the criteria so different, and what are the implications?

Indiana — a state of 6.7 million people — faces a much different situation than Indianapolis — a city of just under 900,000, according to both state and local leaders.

"The challenges facing Indianapolis are unique based on our city’s population density and at-risk communities, as well as the wide variety of large venues in Indianapolis and our role as a hub for business and healthcare for the greater central Indiana community," the Mayor's Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Schaffer told IndyStar.

That means the city's criteria will necessarily be different.

"(Indiana is) dealing with multiple counties and data are highly variable in terms of reliability and availability," Joshua Vest, director of the Center for Health Policy at the Fairbanks School of Public Health at IUPUI, said. "One could understand why they would have to have a more limited set of indicators they could look at. Marion County has more access to data that's local and specific to them. They can leverage that."

Vest also noted that "the criteria that are described are probably not all the criteria the state is going to use."

When asked for more information about the criteria the state is using to guide reopening, the governor's office referred IndyStar to publicly available statements. 

"We will be looking at hospital admissions, how many ventilators and critical care beds are available in each region, our capacity to test more Hoosiers, and how our contact tracing system is working," Holcomb said when announcing his reopening plan. "That is the data that has guided us every day since this emergency began, and we’re not going to let off the gas now. We will continue to monitor every day."

When asked in a May 4 press conference why Indiana did not follow federal guidance on 14 days of declining cases prior to reopening, State Health Department Chief Medical Officer Lindsay Weaver said that as the state sees more testing, they'll see more positives. At that time, the state had tested more than 113,000 people.

"That's a lot of people," Weaver said, "and with each day and the more testing sites we have, that means we're going to test more people and expect to maybe see that number go up."

More:Here's what you should know about Indianapolis' plan to begin reopening

Setting dates

When Holcomb announced his Back on Track plan, he did so while giving specific target dates for the next three stages of the state's reopening, culminating in a nearly full reopening by July 4.

Hogsett has chosen a different route for Indianapolis. When he announced plans for Stage 2, he said the city would assess its progress and give further updates in two weeks.

Hogsett did list June 1 as a target date for portions of Indianapolis' economy, including some dine-in permitted in restaurants and the return of personal services, like salons. 

"We are not yet releasing target dates for those future phases, but we will continue to urge businesses to familiarize themselves with the governor's Back on Track plan," Hogsett said Wednesday. "Make sure you are preparing for the phase in which your business can reopen."

Hard dates "anchor people's expectations and may make it harder to roll back or delay given the data," Vest said. "Marion County doesn't give hard dates. They say, 'This is how long we want to see what's going on.' That is probably a more prudent approach setting up expectations. Once you have set a date, things become cemented pretty readily in people's minds."

Holcomb has said the state will adjust to "the facts on the ground" and change the timeline for reopening if necessary. 

"This is not an exercise of paralysis by analysis. We are here to make decisions and to act," Holcomb said in a May 8 press conference. "Others are having to do the same thing in their daily lives. It's got to do with lives and livelihood."

Follow IndyStar reporter Matthew VanTryon on Twitter @MVanTryon and email him story ideas at matthew.vantryon@indystar.com.