What IU basketball needs to do to beat Ohio State

IU Insider Zach Osterman previews the Hoosiers' upcoming game, with a look at key matchups and talking points, and a score prediction.

Sunday's game: IU (13-10, 4-8) vs. Ohio State (15-7, 5-6), 1 p.m., Assembly Hall, Bloomington.

TV: CBS (Kevin Harlan and Dan Bonner)

Ohio State KenPom Ranking: 34.

KenPom projection: IU wins 68-66, 57 percent chance of IU victory.

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Three Strengths

▪ Playing through the post: It's been a breakout season for sophomore forward Kaleb Wesson. He's turned himself into a strong finisher and one of the Big Ten's better rebounders, and he even has a solid assist rate. He uses more than 30 percent of Ohio State possessions. 

▪ Season recovery: Chris Holtmann can sympathize with Archie Miller. After a 12-1 start, Ohio State crumbled in January, losing five-straight. But the Buckeyes have recovered in the last two weeks, winning three of four and pushing their way back into the NCAA tournament conversation. 

▪ Top thievery: Ohio State is third in the Big Ten in league games in opponent turnover rate. Conference opponents are giving the ball away on 19.3 percent of possessions against the Buckeyes.

Three Weaknesses

▪ Taking their own medicine: Of course, the flip side to that turnover number is the Buckeyes are dead last in the conference in Big Ten games in their own turnover percentage. No team gives it away more regularly in Big Ten games than Ohio State, which is turning the ball over on 20.9 percent of possessions. 

▪ Rim protection: Ohio State's 2-point field goal defense is respectable, but the Buckeyes are one of the worst teams in the country in block rate. They don't send many shots back. 

▪ A foul concern: The Buckeyes are 13th in the Big Ten in opponent free-throw rate in league games, and for the season, opponents are making 75.6 percent of their free throws against Holtmann's team. Wesson is as culpable as anyone. He averages 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes and has fouled out in three of the Buckeyes' last five.

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Three to Watch

6-9 forward Kaleb Wesson (No. 34)

Promising as a freshman, Wesson has stepped into Keita Bates-Diop's shoes as the leading man in Columbus as a sophomore. He's a tough finisher around the rim, a physical load at 6-9, 270 pounds, and he's 19-of-46 (41.3 percent) from behind the 3-point line, making him a tricky cover.

6-1 guard C.J. Jackson (No. 3)

Jackson is a multi-dimensional threat for Ohio State. A dangerous 3-point shooter hitting around 40 percent of his tries from range, the senior is also his team's best assist man. His turnover rate is slightly higher in Big Ten play than overall, but Jackson is a solid all-around guard.

6-3 guard Luther Muhammad (No. 1)

Ohio State's most dangerous 3-point threat, Muhammad is actually hitting a greater percentage of his 3s in Big Ten play (47.1 percent) than overall. He's also coming in confident, having scored in double figures in four of the Buckeyes' last five. He had 20 midweek against Penn State. 

Prediction

Indiana missed a premium opportunity at home Thursday, with the narrow defeat to No. 20 Iowa. A win over Ohio State wouldn't be quite so valuable, but it would still be a top-40 victory in terms of both KenPom and the NCAA's NET rankings, and IU's not really in a position to turn down any win right now anyway. 

The Hoosiers have lost three in a row at home, a streak that needs to be reversed immediately and permanently if the Hoosiers want to find their way back into the NCAA tournament picture. 

Ohio State's 3-point shooters will be a problem for Miller's team, which struggled to deal with the same threats against Iowa, and Wesson provides yet another difficult post presence in a league full of them. 

But the Buckeyes are hardly infallible. They're a middle-of-the-road defensive team in the Big Ten, and they give the ball away far too much. They've also beaten just one KenPom top-50 team since Dec. 1, and that was against capsizing Nebraska. 

Ohio State's midweek survival against Penn State means the Buckeyes can afford a loss in Bloomington. Indiana can't do with anything but a win on Sunday.

Indiana 68, Ohio State 56

Hoosier to click

Morgan struggled with foul trouble Thursday, and had to watch too much of the Iowa game from the bench as a result. 

Coupled with his injury against Michigan State, Morgan hasn't hit full stride in the last week or so. 

Now he has to contend with Wesson, one of the most physically imposing post players in the Big Ten. But Wesson himself isn't perfect, those foul issues a noticeable concern. 

If Indiana can get Morgan established early, and let him attack his counterpart in scarlet and grey, then the Hoosiers could create two problems at once: Control the post through their all-league senior forward, and put Ohio State's key man in foul trouble. 

Morgan must be central to any postseason push IU can craft this month. And the Hoosiers need that to start Sunday.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.