1 win shy of bowl eligibility, it's not too early to ask just how high IU football can go
Zach Osterman- IU at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, BTN
BLOOMINGTON – Saturday's 34-28 victory at Maryland means Indiana hasn't been this close to bowl eligibility this early in 12 years, with five wins and five games to go.
The Hoosiers could be favored in as many of three of those last five. Bowl eligibility alone should not be the limit of this team's ambition in 2019.
What options does IU have, and what positioning could Tom Allen's team be playing for over the last month of the season? Here's a look at wide variety of possibilities.
Setting the field
Getting this close to six wins this early in the calendar, new for a generation of Indiana fans, also makes it difficult to pin down a lot of key specifics.
As ever, the fate of every Big Ten team in the bowl field will be determined first by how many teams the College Football Playoff and the New Year's Six gobble up. Right now, Ohio State is on course for the former, while Penn State, Wisconsin and even Minnesota could be in the mix for the latter at the end of the season.
Penn State still has Michigan State and Ohio State to play. Wisconsin's loss at Illinois did the Badgers no favors. Minnesota would have to overcome an undeniably soft schedule, but the Gophers still have Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin to play, so that's possible.
The rule of thumb remains the same: Indiana wants as many Big Ten teams in this top end of the field as possible, to open up opportunities further down.
Beyond the group of four at the top, the Big Ten still has five more teams whose record plus remaining schedule put them in reasonable bowl contention: Michigan (5-2), Iowa (5-2), Indiana (5-2), Nebraska (4-3) and Michigan State (4-3).
It's worth mentioning Indiana still plays two of those teams, and two teams (Northwestern and Purdue) who might fancy a late sprint toward six wins. The Hoosiers will get chances not just to add to their win total, but also to use head-to-head matchups to eliminate or put themselves ahead of some competition.
A look at the bowls
As we seem to discuss every year, the Big Ten bowl field is somewhat fluid, and largely determined by the conference in the end. If the league wants to fiddle with a matchup or two, it can. But, the field still typically falls out like this:
>> Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla., Jan. 1
>> Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla., Jan. 1
>> Holiday Bowl, San Diego, Dec. 27
>> Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Fla., Jan. 2
>> Pinstripe Bowl, New York, Dec. 27
>> Redbox Bowl, San Francisco, Dec. 30
>> Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit, Dec. 26
>> Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Texas, Jan. 4
That's roughly the Big Ten bowl structure. Teams will usually be placed in descending order based on conference finish.
You'll notice no mention of Nashville's Music City Bowl, which has a dual agreement with the Gator Bowl to split Big Ten and ACC opponents against an SEC opponent annually. There's no formal rotation between the two, but the Music City Bowl has taken a Big Ten team in each of the past three seasons, so it looks certain to pick from the ACC this year.
Best-case/worst-case scenarios
For a program that's gone 5-7 each of the past two seasons and only been to three bowl games since 1993, there really are no worst-case scenarios. It's probably more accurate to call them good- and better-case, if that's a thing.
According to the IU football-centric website Punt John Punt, Bill Connelly's S&P+ ratings actually project 8-4 as the Hoosiers' most likely final record, with just a 1% chance of Indiana not getting bowl eligible and a 24% chance of 9-3.
Putting to one side daydreams over the kind of season IU hasn't had since Bill Mallory's tenure, there still remains a very real chance the Hoosiers reach at least seven wins, if not eight.
The easiest way to look at bowl possibilities might be to break this down by record. Consider these early predictions for each of the following:
>> 9-3: This is the dream scenario, both from a record perspective and, obviously, a bowl perspective. Given the Hoosiers have only league games remaining, this would mean IU finished with a 6-3 Big Ten record, at which point the Outback Bowl would get its dream storyline: a Big Ten team stuffed with Tampa talent, led by a Tampa QB and coached by a man with strong Tampa ties.
>> 8-4: Finishing 8-4 probably wouldn't rule out the Outback Bowl, but it would depend upon who Indiana beat (Michigan, basically) to get to 8-4, where teams like Iowa and Minnesota finished, and how many teams the Big Ten sent to the Playoff plus New Year's Six. A Holiday Bowl berth, on the 40th anniversary of IU's upset of BYU under Lee Corso, would make sense.
>> 7-5: Here's where IU really starts to get dependent on the top end of the field. The Gator Bowl would be in play here, depending upon how many teams went into the Playoff plus New Year's Six. But Indiana could potentially need to move past Michigan State or Nebraska for consideration there, which could be difficult depending upon the outcome of this weekend's game.
It would certainly be hard to see the Hoosiers fall past the Pinstripe in this scenario, but the Gator Bowl could be tempted to grab a team that doesn't usually make a case to be so far up the bowl pecking order.
>> 6-6: Barring collapses elsewhere around the conference — and presuming no unexpected interlopers, like Purdue or Illinois, which is possible — this record would land Indiana where it's been when bowl eligible in recent years: somewhere between New York and Detroit.
Under current conditions, the Hoosiers could play their way out of the Quick Lane Bowl simply by winning this weekend at Nebraska, and guaranteeing themselves a finish ahead of the Huskers. But that scenario would also involve IU losing out from there. Indiana represented well at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2015, handing organizers an exciting game and sizable attendance. Indiana always draws well in New York, and if the Hoosiers finish on 6-6, they might get the chance to again.
Final word, and projections
Ultimately, it's hard to pinpoint Indiana's place in the bowl field right now. That's the only drawback to being so close to eligibility so early in the season — there are too many moving parts to analyze them all accurately.
The best the Hoosiers can do, of course, is just keep winning. They have manageable games between now and their next bye, and the only truly un-winnable game left on the schedule is probably at Penn State on Nov. 16. The more IU wins, the more this outlook improves.
Week 8 projections:
ESPN: Quick Lane Bowl vs. North Carolina State/Gator Bowl vs. South Carolina
CBS: Not included
Saturday Tradition: Redbox Bowl vs. Washington
Banner Society: Redbox Bowl vs. Arizona State
College Football News: Redbox Bowl vs. Arizona State
247Sports: Redbox Bowl vs. Arizona
USA TODAY: Quick Lane Bowl vs. Florida State
Watch Stadium: Quick Lane Bowl vs. Florida State
Sporting News: Quick Lane Bowl vs. Louisville
Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.