Allianz Football League Division Two: Meath v Fermanagh (tomorrow, 2pm, Pairc Tailteann)
HAD anyone told the Fermanagh players at the season’s beginning that they’d be heading into the final day with a chance of promotion, they would have stripped the gift bearer of both arms.
Regardless of what happens in Pairc Tailteann tomorrow afternoon, it’s been a league campaign that, above all, encourages them that last summer was not a ceiling through which they could never hope to break.
Fermanagh don’t need to win promotion to Division One in order for them to take confidence into a championship campaign that will see them welcome Donegal to Brewster Park.
When that draw was made, you had to look at last June’s evidence and offer up the early summation that closing the gap alone would represent success for Rory Gallagher’s side.
That’s not how they’ve seen it, and of all that they’ve done to find themselves in this position, it was outscoring the Ulster champions 0-8 to 0-2 across the last 37 minutes to come from behind and win.
That was a result aided by Donegal’s indiscipline and their failure to take Fermanagh’s gameplan seriously.
The problem with continuing to climb the ladder is that teams will start to zone in on you. That’s what Armagh did last Saturday, and the result was a composed, controlled performance that bettered Fermanagh’s for all but 10 minutes.
In that short spell, the Ernemen worked themselves three superb scores against a gale to draw level at 0-4 apiece. At that point, they looked favourites. But Armagh steadied and picked them off, albeit with the fortune of a soft goal and some panicky attacking play from the visitors.
Had the circumstances here been even slightly different, Fermanagh would be a stronger fancy.
But the reality is that they’re away tomorrow to the best side in the division, and one that still needs something to guarantee their own passage.
Meath should already be up. They’ve won five from six, and their one defeat came in what Andy McEntee said this week was their “best performance” of the campaign, when they led the whole way in Ballybofey only to fall at the last.
Navan has become a fortress again. The feel-good is back, their public’s love for the team rekindled by virtue not just of their climb, but the manner in which they’ve taken themselves to the brink of what would be a first top-flight campaign in 14 years.
They’ve lost just one league game there in the last three years, and a huge crowd is expected to descend for this final push.
Their requirements are almost certain to be met. For Meath not to go up, they’d have to lose by nine points or more, and Donegal would have to beat Kildare into the bargain.
That seems highly unlikely. The lowest total score of any team that’s won promotion from Division Two in the last decade is 107 points (Tyrone in 2016).
Fermanagh currently sit on 58 (2-52).
They don’t need to beat Meath by nine but they do need to at least draw. If that happens, they’ll need either a draw in Ballyshannon or for Kildare to win.
If Donegal win, then Fermanagh must better their margin of victory by four or more.
There was a notable lack of bite about them last weekend, particularly in the area in front of their goal, where Armagh had a lot of joy off either powerful runners or even the kick-pass.
Meath’s great strength has been their interchangeability between the two. They’re still fond of the traditional route but Colm Nally’s influence as coach has seen their running game massively improved this season.
James McEntee, a key man at wing-back, hasn’t played since they beat Armagh because of a hamstring injury picked up on Sigerson Cup duty with UCC.
Cillian O’Sullivan has come back into the side since the midway point in the league, but Graham Reilly remains on first reserve duty as the likes of Ethan Devine, Darragh Campion and Thomas O’Reilly try to stamp their own style on a pacy forward line.
Meath will be deservedly promoted by the end of play, and they’ll want to go up on their own terms.
Fermanagh will do well to get the result they need to join them.
