Wisconsin and metro Milwaukee expect strong hiring amid robust U.S. growth, Manpower poll finds

Amid the strongest national job-creation climate in 12 years, Wisconsin employers expect "strong” hiring prospects in the coming quarter, while their counterparts in the four-county Milwaukee metro area are "optimistic,” according to the latest survey of employer confidence by ManpowerGroup Inc.

Manpower's quarterly index of employer sentiment, released Tuesday, is the latest staffing gauge to signal optimism. It follows nine years of continuous job creation, both nationally and in Wisconsin.

Separate reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the monthly U.S. unemployment rate is at 50-year lows of 3.7 percent. 

As it does every three months, the Milwaukee-based global staffing company surveyed 12,500 employers across the U.S., covering each of the 50 states as well as the nation's 100 largest metro areas. It asked one question: “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2019 compared to the current quarter?"

In the first quarter of 2019, 23 percent of U.S. employers said they expect to grow their workforce while 5 percent expect to trim payrolls, creating a "net employment outlook" of 18 percent, according to Manpower's methodology. After seasonal adjustments to smooth out fluctuations from weather and school holidays, which vary from quarter to quarter, the national net outlook comes to 20 percent "reflecting the strongest hiring intentions in 12 years."

That improves the hiring index by 1 percentage point in comparison with the previous quarter and the first quarter of 2018, Manpower said. In the upcoming quarter, 71 percent of national employers do not anticipate any change, signaling overall stability.

At the national level, demand for qualified workers is strong enough that it compounds talent shortages that already exist in some sectors, said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America.

“Increased employer optimism tells us employers have jobs to fill, yet we know they are struggling to find the talent they need — from production-line workers to IT professionals,” Frankiewicz said in a statement.

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The national index also reflected optimistic hiring plans across many economic sectors: transportation, utilities, leisure and hospitality, as well as professional and business services.

Keeping pace with upbeat national job-creation trends, "Wisconsin employers expect to hire at a strong pace," Manpower said. 

Among Wisconsin employers surveyed, 28 percent plan to add hires from January through March, which is offset by 5 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, yielding a net outlook of 23 for the state — higher than the previous quarter (20 percent) and higher than the first quarter of the current year (21 percent).

It was a similar story in the Milwaukee metropolitan area, which encompasses Milwaukee, Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties. In the metro region, 28 percent plan to add employees while 4 percent plan to reduce payrolls, yielding a net outlook of 24 percent — which is slightly higher than the previous quarter and the same quarter of the current year.

Manpower’s quarterly indicator provides a forward-looking barometer on hiring that is unavailable from government data, which only looks backward at each month's developments.

Like a weather vane, the quarterly outlook is a useful leading indicator of overall direction and sentiment. But it reveals little about the actual number of new jobs, whether they are full-time and whether they include benefits.