Can New Mexico State secure the WAC title against UTRGV?

LAS CRUCES – New Mexico State is set for a home game against UTRGV on Saturday at 7 p.m.

The Aggies (21-6, 12-0 WAC) can secure sole ownership of the WAC regular season title with a victory, but the Vaqueros (12-14, 7-5 WAC) are eyeing some revenge after suffering a 67-62 loss in the first meeting.

Here's a full breakdown of the matchup.

How to follow

There are a number of ways to follow the action on Saturday.

For television, FOX Sports Arizona-Plus, FOX Sports Oklahoma, FOX Sports San Diego, FOX Sports Prime Ticket (LA), FOX College Sports Pacific, the FOX Sports Go App, the WAC Digital Network, Comcast New Mexico and 'The CW' Las Cruces/El Paso are all providing coverage.

For radio, 99.5 FM KXPZ is providing play-by-play commentary. Jack Nixon has the call.

For social media, I will be providing coverage on Twitter (@JTheSportsDude). This includes a live stream preview at 6:30 p.m., video updates throughput the contest and live stream postgame interviews with the team.

Pack the Pan Am (Part II)

Saturday's contest marks the second Pack the Pan Am campaign of the season for New Mexico State.

The Aggies secured an attendance of 13,960 people the first time around to watch New Mexico State earn a 72-52 win over Grand Canyon, and another electric atmosphere is expected this weekend.

Aggies athletic director Mario Moccia tweeted Friday at noon that only 1,128 lower level tickets remain unsold for the game against UTRGV. 

Injury updates

AJ Harris, Clayton Henry, Dajour Joseph and Wilfried Likayi remain out for the season for New Mexico State.

One person expected to play through his respective injury, though, is Trevelin Queen. The senior small forward is still recovering from a surgery on Jan. 22 that repaired a tear in his lateral meniscus, but he played in both of the Aggies' home games last week.

Queen averaged two points in 13.5 minutes per contest during that stretch, but New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans says the Aggies' leading scorer experienced soreness and swelling after Thursday's win over Seattle.

This limited his minutes for the Utah Valley game to just 13, although he did rejoin the starting lineup after coming off the bench against the Redhawks. Queen is expected to face minute restrictions once again this Saturday as he tries to get back to full strength before postseason play.

Meanwhile, Terrell Brown's status for the UTRGV is still listed as day to day. The senior suffered a foot sprain in the win over Seattle and missed the game against Utah Valley as a result. 

"He got some X-rays that were negative, fortunately, but he has been in a walking boot," Jans said on Monday. "Trainers are working around the clock with him to try to get him back on the floor as soon as he can, but we'll see."

Aggie outlook

New Mexico State is still undefeated in conference play despite facing its biggest scare yet on Saturday.

The Aggies narrowly bested Utah Valley at home by a score of 84-82 thanks to some late-game heroics by Jabari Rice. The redshirt sophomore erupted for a career-high 29 points on 8-for-12 shooting (4-for-5 from deep) and fittingly ended the night by banking in a go-ahead triple with 0.6 seconds left to earn the victory.

"I'm happy my teammates stuck with me and stuck behind me," Rice said after the game. "Because I did throw two turnovers in a row before that, but I'm glad that it worked out our way."

Rice continues to show he can be the future face of the program. After posting an offensive rating of just 99.8 last season, which ranked 12th on the team, he now has an offensive rating of 118.7 this season. That ranks first in the conference for players used in at least 20 percent of possessions, according to KenPom.

Another player who had a strong showing against the Wolverines was Ivan Aurrecoechea. The senior forward scored 11 points while playing through an illness in Thursday's win over Seattle, but he looked to be at full strength against Utah Valley.

Aurrecoechea racked up 18 points on 8-for-14 shooting and added five boards in the victory. Although he only went 2-for-5 from the charity stripe, that hasn't been a trend for the Spaniard lately.

Aurrecoechea is 44-for-59 (74.6 percent) from the free throw line so far in conference play after going 28-for-52 (53.8 percent) in non-conference play, and that added boost has helped make him one of the most dangerous big men in the WAC.

While both Rice and Aurrecoechea's recent outings are encouraging, the Aggies still have room to improve as they enter the home stretch of the regular season. 

New Mexico State continues to struggle to close out games in conference play. The Aggies have won seven single-digit contests by an average of 5.1 points, and yet they've led in those games by an average of 11 points at some point in the second half.

New Mexico State's tendency to take its foot off the gas hasn't cost the team its undefeated record yet, but this can't happen on Saturday against UTRGV.

Vaquero breakdown

The Vaqueros are the second-hottest team in the WAC as they enter this contest on a six-game winning streak, and they have a number of players to watch out for.

The first one is Jordan Jackson, a 6-foot-3 senior shooting guard who is averaging a team-high 15.5 points per game on 44.7-percent shooting from the field.

Jackson is a hyper-athletic rim rocker who doesn't stray past the mid range often, and he dropped a game-high 26 points on the Aggies in the first meeting on 10-for-14 shooting.

Take a look at these clips from that game.

Jackson calls for a pick on the first play in an effort to shake Shunn Buchanan.

The UTRGV guard is shooting 31 percent from behind the arc this season, which isn't bad by any means, but the deep ball clearly isn't his bread and butter. Despite this, Buchanan makes the mistake of going over the pick, and Jackson is able to attack the rim for the easy layup.

The senior is also third in the WAC with a steal percentage of 2.9, according to KenPom, and he shows that defensive awareness on the next play.

Two UTRGV players cave in on Johnny McCants, and another drops down to protect a pass to Aurrecoechea. This leaves Jackson with the duty of guarding either a pass to Evan Gilyard II in the corner or one to Brown at the top of the arc.

It's a lot of ground to cover for one person, but Jackson reads the play to perfection. As soon McCants pivots and turns his back to Gilyard, the savvy defender knows the pass is going to Brown and steals it for the fastbreak layup.

With Queen expected to be back in the starting lineup, Rice should return to the two and see most of the coverage on Jackson. Preventing the veteran Vaquero from getting a full head of steam is going to be the key in that matchup.

Another player to watch out for is junior Javon Levi, a 5-foot-11 point guard who was a late scratch in the first meeting of the season due to personal reasons. Levi's return is a game changer due to his facilitating.

More:Film breakdown on Levi can be found in the first preview article

The floor general is averaging eight assists per game this season and boasts an assist rate of 48.6, according to KenPom, which both rank first in the entire country. He’s also averaging 10.7 points per contest.

"(Levi) is the head of the snake, for sure," Jans said. "He's definitely the guy that makes them go, and his personality just trickles into their team. He's such a tough competitor."

Gilyard is going to get the bulk of this matchup, and the junior point guard is going to have to watch his fouls. Levi draws an average of 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes, according to KenPom, which ranks 13th in the WAC.

Meanwhile, Gilyard is committing an average of 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes, which is the third-highest average on the team. The Aggies need him on the court for his offense, his defensive intensity and for guard depth, so this is a key matchup.

The third player to watch out for is the final member of UTRGV’s Big Three, and that’s Lesley Varner II.

The 6-foot-7 senior power forward is averaging 14 points and a team-high 6.1 boards per game on 36.8-percent shooting from deep. Varner has five games of at least 20 points in WAC play, which is second only to Seattle’s Terrell Brown in the conference.

Johnny McCants is going to get the matchup here, and his biggest edge comes at the rim.

The Las Cruces native has 45 pounds on Varner despite being the same height, so look for him to throw that weight around down low. McCants should still shoot the occasional three to keep the defense honest, but the trenches are where he will thrive.

Keys to success

My key to success for New Mexico State on offense is to limit turnovers.

UTRGV has been forcing an average of 24.1 turnovers in WAC play, which leads the conference. The Aggies committed 17 in the first meeting, and the Vaqueros converted that into 19 points.

Fortunately for the Aggies, they've only committed an average of 9.8 turnovers per contest in their last six games since the UTRGV win. That’ll have to continue this weekend if they want to keep the streak alive.

My key to success for New Mexico State on defense is to keep UTRGV off the free throw line.

On average, the Vaqueros have gone a ridiculous 18-for-31 from the charity stripe per contest during their six-game winning streak. That accounts for 23 percent of their points during that stretch.

UTRGV only went 9-for-10 from the free throw line in the first meeting against New Mexico State, though, and that will have to happen again if the Aggies want to come out on top.

Who will win?

UTRGV is a dark-horse candidate in the upcoming WAC tournament, but New Mexico State is still the top dog in this conference.

The Aggies are showing much better ball security as of late, more production from the second unit and they'll have Queen back in the mix after not playing the first time around. Give me the home team in this one.

Prediction: New Mexico State 73, UTRGV 67

Justin Martinez can be reached at (575) 541-5455, JMMartinez@lcsun-news.com or @JTheSportsDude on Twitter. Make sure to subscribe to the Las Cruces Sun-News  to stay up to date with all local sports.