A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, AND WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WESTERN GULF. NEITHER APPEAR TO BE A BIG THREAT. OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
A swirl related to an old frontal system near the North Carolina coast may develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow. Whatever form it takes, it is expected to move northeast, offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
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A surge of tropical moisture from a combination of a tropical wave from Africa and a disturbance over Central America will move into the western Gulf midweek. The upper-level winds will be less hostile than they have been lately, so we will have to watch that area through the end of the week. Though development chances are low.
Neither of these systems will affect South Florida.
The tropical disturbances moving off of Africa are forecast by the computer models to be fairly robust over the next couple weeks. But the air over the tropical Atlantic continues to be unusually dry, so no tropical development in this area is expected this week.
August 18, 1992: Tropical Storm Andrew was an extremely disorganized 50 mph tropical storm 27 years ago today. The atmosphere ahead of it was not conducive for significant strengthening. An upper-level system just ahead was creating winds aloft that were unfavorable for strengthening. The only thing concerning about Andrew was its location in the ocean. But that Tuesday night, the consensus was that it would not be problem and likely go out to sea. It was less than 6 days from landfall.
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