In normal times, Red Sox amateur scouting director Paul Toboni would be hunkered down in the Fenway Park basement with area scouts and fellow front office executives putting together the club’s draft board in the days leading up to the draft. But for Toboni, a 30-year-old Cal alum who was promoted to overseeing Boston’s draft operations in September, the first draft in his new role will be anything but normal.
Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, the draft has been shortened from 40 rounds to just five. Because high school and college baseball seasons across the country were wiped out, teams have limited -- and potentially outdated -- information about players to use in their preparations. And if there weren’t enough challenges already, the Red Sox lost their second-round pick as a result of Major League Baseball’s sign-stealing investigation and will be able to add just four players to the organization next Wednesday and Thursday.
So Toboni and his staff are making the best out of less-than-ideal circumstances, communicating over Zoom rather than the usual war room in the bowels of the ballpark.
“The fact we were only able to scout four college weekends and the high school kids, many of whom we didn’t see in their spring seasons, it’s difficult,” Toboni said Monday. “There’s a lot more uncertainty than there would be in a normal spring. From a standpoint of communication with our staff and not being able to meet in person. Having to overcome the learning curve, getting familiar with Zoom and these calls. Our staff has handled it great and our approach, by and large, really hasn’t changed all that much. While daunting at the start, it has actually been fine. As a group, we’ve actually handled it really well.”
The Red Sox own just one of the first 88 picks in the draft -- their first-round selection at No. 17 -- putting more pressure on Toboni and his staff to get the pick right. But the Red Sox aren’t focused on adding a certain position or a player who could move through the system more quickly than others. As they would in any other year, they’ll look at their draft board when their pick comes around and select the player they like the most at that spot.
“We don’t want to make that shortsighted decision at the expense of passing up on a really good player that might have an impact for years and years down the line,” Toboni said.
Because college players were granted an extra year of eligibility due the pandemic and high-school players might be more likely to go to college or junior college and try again in a longer draft in 2021, there’s an added layer of uncertainty when it comes to the pool of available players this year. Toboni said the pool is much more limited than in normal years, which has allowed the Red Sox to take deeper dives into players and get a better understanding of certain individuals.
There haven’t been many players who have preemptively pulled themselves out of the draft because it is only five rounds but Toboni expects many to do so once the unprecedented undrafted free agent signing period -- during which teams can offer a maximum bonus of $20,000 -- begins. Further complicating talks with players is the fact that the minor league season will likely be canceled in 2020, making it impossible to provide short-term answers about how players will start their professional development tracks after being drafted and signed.
“I think all we can do really is remain optimistic,” Toboni said. “I don’t want to tell these kids that might not end up being the truth. I almost hesitate speculating on it to the kids. I’d hesitate speculating on it in this setting, too. I think the kids have been really understanding in that regard, which has made things easier on our end. At the end of the day, we’re probably going to be facing very similar challenges as their colleges are facing. With that uncertainty, from both sides, because it’s going to be tough to make a decision in that regard and weigh those two options.”
While the Red Sox’ internal approach hasn’t changed, Toboni is curious to see if other teams act uncharacteristically on draft day and tailor their strategies toward the smaller pool. He also is wondering how players might react, knowing that there will be significantly less money available to amateurs this year with limits on the spending capital of teams for both drafted and undrafted players.
Then comes the question that has been lurking since the pandemic ended amateur baseball across the country in mid-March. Will teams have enough information on these players to make sound decisions? Furthermore, have promising careers been altered -- or even ruined -- by an ill-timed public health crisis?
Toboni thinks it’s possible.
“For the high school player that’s playing in a place with terrible competition where baseball isn’t a huge deal, that kid is probably not that much worse-off,” Toboni said. ""The high school player that was just starting to come into his own in the fall and just starting to make strides, that player is affected differently. The same would go for the college kids, too. The college kid that was really starting to come into his own and really expose himself to that higher quality pitching and putting together some quality at-bats. Not only is that player not developing during this time which is hurting him, but we can’t evaluate him in those settings. Just challenging all around. I wish I could paint it with a broad stroke, but it’s so tailored to the individual."
With 10 days to go before the draft begins, the Red Sox are faced with even more questions than they normally would be at this time of year. They now have 10 days of draft meetings to try to answer them before they go on the clock at No. 17.
“We’ve just done our best to try to predict how players and teams might behave,” Toboni said. “We might find out that 10 days from now or two weeks ago that it was a waste of time.”