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The 5 Pennsylvania counties that are growing (and shrinking) the most

An aerial view of Allentown from 2017. Lehigh County was one of the top growing counties in Pennsylvania from 2017 to 2018, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Lehigh Valley Drone / Special to The Morning Call
An aerial view of Allentown from 2017. Lehigh County was one of the top growing counties in Pennsylvania from 2017 to 2018, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
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The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show mixed results for Pennsylvania’s 67 counties: 37 counties decreased in population while only 30 increased between 2017 and 2018.

Of the state’s 67 counties, just over half (37) lost population year-to-year. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t parts of the state seeing growth, mostly due to migration.

Here are the top and bottom counties for year-to-year population changes:

Top five

LEBANON: Growth rate: 1.25%. 2017 population: 139,566. 2018 population: 141,314.

Like all of the top 5, Lebanon’s population increase was driven by migration, with almost 20 times as many people added by moving into the county as there were by “natural increase” (deaths subtracted from births). The county’s rate of growth has been accelerating since 2013. Last year it was not only the fastest-growing in the state, it grew faster than 85% of counties nationwide.

CUMBERLAND: Growth rate: 0.88%. 2017 population: 249,238. 2018 population: 251,423.

Cumberland also benefited from migration, but its domestic migration rate was greater than its international one, at 5.1 per thousand population compared to 2.3 per thousand for international. Cumberland grew faster than 82% of the country’s 3,142 counties from 2017 to 2018.

MONROE: Growth rate: 0.84%. 2017 population: 168,089. 2018 population: 169,507.

Monroe has had its ups and (mostly) downs since the 2010 Census. Its population is still 335 less than it was at the decennial Census, but it has shown robust growth in the past two years, adding more than 3,000 residents. If the trend maintains it will show a net gain in population for the 2020 Census.

LEHIGH: Growth rate: 0.75%. 2017 population: 365,371. 2018 population: 368,100.

Lehigh County is unique in the top five in that almost one-third of its population increase from 2017 to 2018 can be accounted for by it natural increase. Even so, at 7.3 people per thousand, its rate of international migration was by far the highest of the top five; and, the county was behind only Philadelphia and Allegheny counties for total number of international migrants. The county posted a negative domestic migration rate of -2.3 per thousand.

PIKE: Growth rate: 0.74%. 2017 population: 55,523. 2018 population: 55,933.

Pike, like Monroe, is also in a population deficit from 2010. Unlike Monroe, it is unlikely to make it up by the 2020 Census despite two consecutive years of moderate growth. The county is down more than 1,400 people since the last Census, but added only 410 people from 2017 to 2018. What gains it has made are entirely due to migration. It had 75 fewer births than deaths, but 489 more people move in than had left.

Bottom five

CAMERON: Growth rate: -2.79%. 2017 population: 4,621. 2018 population: 4,492.

The commonwealth’s least-populous county is getting smaller by the year. It lost 129 people from 2017 to 2018, 39 through natural decrease and 93 through out migration. It has lost almost 600 since the 2010 Census. When expressed as a rate, Cameron’s natural decrease was 8 per thousand. Its net migration was -20.7 per thousand, more than twice the rate of people moving out as any other county in the state.

POTTER: Growth rate: -1.27%. 2017 population: 16,835. 2018 population: 16,622.

Potter County also has population decreases to report, both year-to-year and since the last decennial Census, losing 213 and 827 people in those respective time frames.

WYOMING: Growth rate: -1.22%. 2017 population: 27,381. 2018 population: 27,046.

This county, northwest of Scranton, is also one which people are fleeing. Its net migration rate for 2018 was -9.47 people per thousand. Its natural decrease rate was 2.96 per thousand.

SULLIVAN: Growth rate: -1.11%. 2017 population: 6,139. 2018 population: 6071.

Sullivan County, which is Wyoming’s western neighbor is the only in the bottom five to have a higher rate of natural decrease (9.72 per thousand) than net migration (1.48 per thousand). Its population is down more than 5% since the 2010 Census, and will likely lose more people when the 2020 Census is reported.

VENANGO: Growth rate: -1.07%. 2017 population: 51,823. 2018 population: 51,266.

While this northwestern Pennsylvania county’s yearly population decline was moderate, it is down almost 7% since the last Census. Of the 557 people it lost sine 2017, 175 are attributable to natural decrease, while 382 are from out migration.

MAP: Population change by county (2017-2018)

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Morning Call reporter Eugene Tauber can be reached at 610-820-6770 or etauber@mcall.com.