President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign is ramping up efforts to hold Michigan, undeterred by signs that voters in the crucial swing state may be slipping toward Joe Biden.
Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 shocked Democrats who expected Michigan to follow a nearly 30-year trend of supporting their presidential candidates. But the margin of Trump’s win was small -- only 0.3% separated him from Hillary Clinton -- and Republican organizers foresaw a need to dispatch an unprecedented show of force to keep Michigan red in 2020.
Christopher Velazco, state director for the Trump campaign, said Michigan has never experienced a political presence of this size and scope. With less than three months until the Nov. 3 election, the Trump campaign is knocking on doors, holding in-person training events and registering voters to cast mail-in ballots in anticipation of a close result.
“We have continuously and methodically been building the largest, most aggressive operation the state has ever seen,” Velazco said.
‘Knock-down, drag-out’
Democrats are not holding in-person events or knocking on doors in response to the coronavirus. Instead, Biden’s campaign scheduled a series of online meetings focused on his plan to spur investment in the auto industry and in rural communities, and to improve community policing.
GOP organizers have registered twice as many voters compared to 2016 through a combined effort of the Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign. More than 1,500 staffers are on the ground -- also more than the campaign had on Election Day 2016 -- and another 41,000 volunteers attended training sessions.
The Trump campaign contacted 4.5 million voters by the first week of August, which accounts for more than half of all registered voters in Michigan. Republican organizers made more phone calls in the three months after COVID-19 outbreaks forced a pivot to online events than they did throughout the entire 2016 election cycle.
It’s also opening new field offices across Michigan. The campaign christened one in Marquette last weekend as part of a push to win the only Upper Penninsula county that voted blue in 2016, and another was set to open in Grand Traverse County this week.
The campaign is boosting on-the-ground efforts with a robust advertising plan, reserving $15 million in television ads before Nov. 3 and spending $1 million on Facebook since May.
Meanwhile, polls show Trump is trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by a wider margin than he did against Hillary Clinton in August 2016. A statewide poll taken by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA found seven in 10 voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Organizers are getting the message out to more voters, but an ongoing pandemic undermines their main talking points. Before the coronavirus killed 6,250 Michigan residents and left more than 1 million workers unemployed, the campaign was poised to argue Trump built one of the strongest economies in American history.
David Dulio, director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, said the top issues facing the country, from COVID-19 to civil unrest sparked by the death of George Floyd, don’t work in Trump’s favor. Voters across the political spectrum will hold Trump responsible for the economic recession, he said, which could make a significant impact on the decisions of nearly 275,900 voters who picked third-party candidates in 2016.
“In times of a down economy, the opposite party tires to take advantage of that,” Dulio said. “Trump would much rather have the economic numbers he had in January and February to run for reelection. It’s a tougher sell to say ‘We were doing really well before the coronavirus. Give me another chance and I’ll turn it around quicker than my opponent.’”
Trump’s reelection campaign aims to hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three swing states that were previously part of the Democratic “blue wall” before flipping by razor-thin margins. Campaign Manager Bill Stepien expressed “quiet confidence” inspired by internal data while disregarding polls in a recent call with reporters.
Stepien told reporters that Republicans don’t need to win all three states to keep Trump in the White House. Still, organizers in Michigan said it’s laughable to suggest the campaign would give up in Michigan.
“This will be a knockdown, drag-out fight to the very end,” Stepien said.
Organizers have been in this position before: It didn’t look like Trump would win Michigan in 2016 either. Polls projected a close loss, but the RNC had data suggesting Trump could squeak out a win by 7,000 votes.
The campaign blitzed Michigan in the last days of the election, capped off with a rally in Grand Rapids that ended hours before polls opened. The result was extremely close, but in line with what the RNC expected: Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes.
Trump himself often recounts the story of how he proved pundits, pollsters and the news media wrong during his stops in Michigan.
Michael Joyce, a spokesperson for the RNC, said Michigan is a “must-win state” not only for its 16 electoral votes but because of its symbolic value.
The campaign views its upsets in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as a generation-defining rewrite of the national political playbook. RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is also a native of Metro Detroit.
“I’m not going to just sit here and say it’s all about turnout and the only polls that matter are the polls on Election Day,” Joyce said. “I’m going to say campaigns matter. At the end of the day, you can have the winning message, but if you’re not running an effective campaign, none of it will matter.”
Mixed opinions in Trump country
Even in deeply-red central Michigan, Trump organizers encounter voters who aren’t sure the country is headed in the right direction. MLive spent a day with the Trump campaign in Midland County, observing how the campaign is meeting voters at their doorstep during a pandemic.
Trump won Midland County by a 19-point margin in 2016, the widest lead secured by a Republican candidate since 1988. That year was also the last time Michigan voted for a Republican president.
Field organizer Chloe Waszak, armed with a mask and a list of addresses, ventured into a series of cul-de-sacs on a cool August afternoon. Waszak said knocking on doors makes some voters uncomfortable, but others are glad to see the campaign is on the ground.
“You have people who answer the door and are like ‘Yes, my sister patriot, let’s get him reelected in 2020,’ and you have people on the opposing side who (say) ‘please get off my porch, I don’t want to talk about this,’” Waszak said.
GOP field organizers are required to wear masks and keep a distance from residents while they canvas neighborhoods. Waszak said they’re not out to pick a fight with anyone who doesn’t want unsolicited strangers appearing during the pandemic.
“You’re never going to sit there and argue with somebody at the door or try to prove a point because ultimately, it’s their property. It’s their house,” Waszak said. “If they feel that way, I just make sure to tell them ‘We’re following COVID guidelines, but I respect how you feel and I hope you have a great day.‘”
Waszak took a few steps back as a masked Amy Hofmeister emerged from her home. Hofmeister, 45, said she’s undecided in the presidential election, but will support GOP Senate candidate John James and U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland.
Hofmeister said she’s unlikely to vote for a Democrat because of her opposition to abortion, but is turned off by some of the things Trump has said during the last four years.
“I would like to see somebody not be a hothead,” Hofmeister said. “That’s the only problem, where he’s like ‘blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.”
Hofmeister voted absentee in Michigan’s August primary, citing concerns about exposing herself to COVID-19. She supports Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s actions to stop the virus from spreading, but said the president “has really come around” and is taking the situation more seriously.
Trump railed against Whitmer’s stay-at-home orders with a barrage of insults on Twitter and interviews. Voters in Michigan largely favored her response to the pandemic compared to Trump, though the president’s supporters organized several raucous protests against “half Whitmer.”
A few blocks down the road, Carrie Burr said Trump is directly responsible for the country’s prolonged battle with COVID-19. Confirmed cases in the U.S. have steadily risen since March, reaching 50,000 to 60,000 new cases each day during the last few weeks.
“I think if he would have come out in March and said ‘Please listen to your governor, please wear a mask and know we are doing this as a shared sacrifice,‘ we could be where Europe is,” Burr said.
Dulio, the political science professor, said Trump’s ability to win back Republican voters that he turned off during the last four years is “one of the biggest keys to his reelection chances.”
Joyce said organizers have encountered voters who don’t like Trump’s rhetoric, but trust the president to rebuild the economy if given a second term.
“I think the common trend that we see with that type of voter who necessarily didn’t come out and support Donald Trump in 2016, but might not have even supported Hillary Clinton is: ‘I don’t like the President’s tweets, I don’t like the stuff he’s saying, but it’s clear to me that he got the economy moving before coronavirus,‘” Joyce said.
Hofmeister said she’s not worried about who can best guide economic recovery.
“That will work itself out with either party,” she said.
Julie Carey, 63, described herself as a strong supporter of the president and was able to fire off a list of his achievements, from rewriting trade deals to appointing conservative judges. Carey said Biden would bend to “radical” progressives in the Democratic Party and doesn’t view him as a middle-of-the-road candidate who can appeal to moderate Republicans.
“I wish Joe would get out more, talk more,” Carey said. “I don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to be on a platform for the U.S. I would love to see him debate Trump before absentee voting starts.”
Carey was out of town during the August primary, so she dropped off an absentee ballot to her clerk’s office. But she plans to vote in person during the November election.
“I just think the whole thing by mail is very questionable,” Carey said. “I think that the election results could drag on because of discrepancies.”
Velazco, the Trump campaign’s Michigan state director, said registering Republicans to vote by mail is a major part of their strategy. Meanwhile, Trump has cast serious doubts on the security of voting by mail, and supporters in West Michigan burned applications to request an absentee ballot.
Burr, 41, said she’s not taking any chances with absentee voting.
“I want to watch my vote counted,” she said.
Burr described herself as “fiscally conservative,” but plans to vote for Biden. Her husband used to vote for Republicans, but broke with the party over Trump.
“I’m realizing I’m never going to be a Trump Republican, so it’s one of those things where maybe we can realize Trump does not reflect Republican ideals,” Burr said.
Burr said she’s frustrated with how divided the country has become, but feels Biden can help find common ground among Americans. Biden wasn’t her first choice, but said his experience with personal trauma might make him better equipped to lead the country through a deadly pandemic.
“I’m a very passionate person when it comes to the election, and I feel very strongly that everyone needs to vote, regardless of our opinions,” Burr said. “I would like to see a nice blue sweep, but it doesn’t matter which side of the aisle you’re on; we all want what’s best for the country.”
READ MORE ON MLIVE:
Joe Biden selects Kamala Harris as vice presidential running mate
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer set to speak at Democratic convention
Biden campaign claims lagging auto jobs puts Trump at disadvantage in Michigan
Michigan pro-Trump Republicans say Biden’s police policies will push voters toward Trump