What’s the real chance of a white Christmas over Michigan and the U.S?

We’ve all seen maps of the historical chance of a white Christmas. Certainly weather varies from year to year. Now here is what one of the best computer models forecasts for snow on the ground Christmas morning.

I guess we have to start quickly with what the actual long-term historical chance of a white Christmas is across Michigan.

We have places like Detroit, Ann Arbor, Flint and Saginaw that have around a 50 percent chance of a white Christmas. This means every other year on average is not a white Christmas.

We have two computer models that most meteorologists like to use for the next two weeks. There are more models that forecast that timeframe, but the European and the GFS are best. The European is usually the best.

So here is what the European weather model forecasts for one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Remember- the European model forecasts out a few weeks in the future. So it doesn’t just forecast for Europe. It has to know what’s happening in the U.S. this week to forecast what will happen in Europe next week.

This forecast still gives Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson, Lansing and Kalamazoo around a 50 percent chance of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Going north we have higher chances of a white Christmas. Flint has a 64 percent chance of a white Christmas. Saginaw has a 60 percent chance of a white Christmas. Grand Rapids has a 68 percent chance.

North of Cadillac there is over an 80 percent chance of a white Christmas. The darkest red from Traverse City northward has a 99 percent chance of a white Christmas.

Northern Lower and the U.P. won’t just have a skimpy one inch of snow. Next is the percent chance for six inches of snow on the ground on Christmas.

Traverse City has a 62 percent chance of six inches on the ground on Christmas Day. From the Mackinaw City area northward into the U.P., six inches of snow or more is expected to be on the ground Christmas morning.

And here’s a look at the chance of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning for the rest of the U.S.

Right now this year looks pretty similar to the historical chances of a white Christmas across the U.S.

There is a changing storm track right now. A lot could change just before Christmas, with the possibility of a storm system rolling across the southern U.S. and laying down a swath of snow across the middle section of the U.S.