The Storm Prediction Center has just updated Tuesday night’s severe weather risk across the Midwest. The expected area of severe thunderstorms has been shifted east into a section of Lower Michigan.
Here is the severe weather forecast for 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday. This forecast was issued around 1:30 p.m. today, June 1, 2020.
Severe thunderstorm potential for 8 a.m. Tuesday, June 2, 2020 to 8 a.m. Wednesday, June 3, 2020. (source: Storm Prediction Center)
The yellow area jutting into Michigan is termed a “slight risk” of severe weather chances. That word “slight” has been misinterpreted thousands of times over the years. A better way to convey the severe weather risk has been developed using a percent chance of a risk.
Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. Tuesday and 8 a.m. Wednesday.
There could be a few isolated tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening. The highest chance of a tornado would be on a path from Minnesota into Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. The conditions that could produce a tornado would continue into a large part of Lower Michigan Tuesday night, but the chance is lower at two percent.
Going from wording severe chances from slight to an actual two percent also gives you some doubt. Most folks think a two percent chance is a very low chance. It is a very low chance. But two percent is significantly higher than the chance of a tornado on a day without severe storms. I guess I’d say when you see a two percent chance, know a tornado is possible in a region but not likely or widespread.
Scattered quick damaging wind gusts will be more likely Tuesday night.
Forecast for the chance of scattered severe wind gusts of 58 mph or faster.
If thunderstorms stay robust into Tuesday night, there would be a chance of scattered severe wind gusts in a few thunderstorms. The chance of severe wind gusts is pegged at 15 percent across the yellow shaded area of Lower Michigan.
Here’s the radar forecast from 8 p.m. Tuesday, June 2 to noon Wednesday, June 3.
Radar forecast from 8 p.m. Tuesday to noon Wednesday.
Thunderstorms could move out of Wisconsin and across central Lower Michigan late Tuesday evening. There is a possibility of a second clump of thunderstorms very early Wednesday morning.
It’s the start of meteorological summer today. During June and July, Michigan’s severe weather pattern usually has hot temperatures in the 90s just south and west in the Plains states. Thunderstorms form on the northern edge of the hot air and race from the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin into Michigan.
Tuesday night’s chance of severe weather isn’t huge at the moment, but these areas of racing thunderstorms can change expectations between now and Tuesday afternoon. I’ll keep you updated here on MLive.com.