Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in action this Sat. night (March 23, 2019) with the UFC Fight Night 148 mixed martial arts (MMA) event on ESPN+, taking place inside Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. At the top of the card, former welterweight No. 1 title contender, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, tries to get back into the 170-pound title hunt by trading blows with ex-lightweight champion, Anthony “Showtime” Pettis.
In the UFC Nashville co-main event, Curtis “Razor” Blaydes will attempt to shake off his recent loss at the expense of Justin “Big Pretty” Willis. We’re going to look at some key stats for those two match ups, then try to make heads or tails of how each bout will unfold. Expect plenty of conjecture, shamelessly subjective opinion, and the typical hot air you’ve come to expect from me over the years.
Let’s get to it.
170 lbs.: Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson
Record: 14-3-1 | Age: 36 | Betting line: -450
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 629 of 1487 (42%) | Takedown attempts: 5 of 11 (45%)
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Decision loss to Darren Till
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis
Record: 21-8 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +350
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 672 of 1483 (45%) | Takedown attempts: 8 of 22 (55%)
Current Ranking: No. 8 (Lightweight) | Last fight: TKO loss to Tony Ferguson
Stephen Thompson is not an MMA fighter. He’s a kickboxer who learned takedown defense. His gameplan has always been the same: control the stand up and stay off the ground. That was good enough for “Wonderboy” — who is more “Wonderman” at age 36 — to put together a seven-fight win streak, including a 2014 technical knockout victory over then-welterweight Robert Whittaker. Unfortunately, that may have been his “run” as it pertains to his place among the current crop of title contenders. I want to blame those Tyron Woodley fights, but I also struggled to stay interested in his bouts against Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till, as well. If you’re a striker and you’re not striking, how the hell do you win a fight? Take his loss to “The Gorilla,” for example. Thompson spent 25 minutes in the cage with Till and landed a total of 30 significant strikes. He landed 38 against Whittaker and that only took three and a half minutes. I wish fighters who wanted to spar or get in a light workout would do that in the gym and bring hellfire and brimstone to the cage.
To that point, it’s hard to be critical of Anthony Pettis, who historically delivers action fights (unless he’s paired off against the likes of Clay Guida). Unlike his Nashville rival, Pettis is more well-rounded as a fighter and has underrated submissions. That doesn’t make him any less dangerous as a striker but “Showtime” didn’t cut his teeth on the kickboxing circuit the way “Wonderboy” did, so it’s much easier to look like a striking phenom when your competition is Shane Roller and Alex Karalexis. Of course we can’t talk about this fight without talking about the bump up to welterweight, which is nowhere near as bad as what Pettis did to himself at featherweight, but it tells me that something is not right with his mental game if he’s jumping around and trying all these different avenues. I thought his exit from the lightweight division was a bit hasty and perhaps a change of camps would have yielded better results. I would not have guessed back in 2014 that “Showtime” would go 3-6, get finished three times, and fail to win back-to-back fights in five years. It’s particularly troubling because Pettis is fighting in the prime of his career and appears to be getting progressively worse.
How will this fight play out? We already know what to expect from Thompson because this is the weight he’s been competing at for years. We haven’t seen Pettis at 170 pounds and don’t yet know if the extra weight will make him slower or affect his cardio. And to be honest, I’m not sure I’ve seen anything from him over the last few years that has me worried for “Wonderboy.” If Edson Barboza was able to outstrike Pettis, then Thompson should not have much trouble, either. That prediction is predicated on Thompson actually throwing a punch, of course, so hopefully we don’t end up with a five-round staring contest. Or that horrible pat-a-cake thing strikers sometimes do where they just slap each other’s gloves for 25 minutes.
Prediction: Thompson def. Pettis by unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes vs. Justin Willis
Curtis “Razor” Blaydes
Record: 10-2, 1 NC | Age: 28 | Betting line: -300
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: 306 of 607 (50%) | Takedown attempts: 33 of 59 (56%)
Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: TKO loss to Francis Ngannou
Justin “Big Pretty” Willis
Record: 8-1 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +240
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Southpaw
Striking accuracy: 209 of 347 (60%) | Takedown attempts: 4 of 6 (67%)
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Decision win over Mark Hunt
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Curtis Blaydes had gone six straight fights without a defeat, while Francis Ngannou had dropped back-to-back bouts and drew the ire of promotion president, Dana White. It seemed like these two had pretty much swapped roles in terms of trajectory in the UFC heavyweight division, until their inevitable rematch, where “Razor” got stopped by “The Predator” for the second time. How he bounces back will tell us a lot about the legitimacy of Blaydes as an MMA fighter. Originally nothing more than a big, athletic wrestler with an impressive reach, the bearded bruiser has come a long way in the striking department. He’s at his best when he can take his opponents down and beat the snot out of them, like Alistair Overeem, for example.
Justin Willis presents similar threats. He doesn’t have the collegiate background experience that Blaydes has, but trains at American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) where guys like Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez spam him with takedowns. I don’t expect Willis to be surprised tomorrow night in Nashville. Working in his favor is confidence. “Big Pretty” is coming off an impressive win over Mark Hunt, which is probably not the biggest of deals these days. And to be fair, Hunt threw just 60 punches the entire fight, landing a paltry 19 of merit in what was the final fight of his UFC career. Not saying he was just going through the motions, but... Anyway, Willis is a durable heavyweight with surprising agility. I just need to see more if I’m picking him to win. Blaydes also has a win over Hunt, but destroyed Alistair Overeem and Alexey Oleynik on top of that. Willis previously defeated Chase Sherman and Allen Crowder.
Willis will not go away quietly. I expect him to be successful in stopping some, but not all of Blaydes’ takedown attempts. Unfortunately, moral victories are not enough in this sport and the takedowns that are successful could lead to several minutes on the ground, where “Big Pretty” will slowly become “Big Ugly.” Blaydes will be in most danger when he’s allowing Willis to work from range, where a well-timed bomb could make it an early night. I’m not sure that’s enough to get the job done and when he’s not fighting Ngannou, I must admit, “Razor” has looked as sharp as anyone.
Prediction: Blaydes def. Willis by unanimous decision
There you have it.
To see who else is fighting at UFC Nashville click here.
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