How Haryana, Maharashtra election results may impact Jharkhand polls

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With the tenure of the Jharkhand Legislative Assembly ending on December 27, the Election Commission of India (EC) is expected to announce poll schedule for the state soon.

The election comes at a time when the Haryana and Maharashtra elections have not yielded results that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would have hoped for.

In Haryana, Manohar Lal Khattar-led BJP fell short of the majority mark and had to seek Jannayak Janata Party (JJP)’s support to form the government.

In Maharashtra, the BJP is engaged in a power tussle with its ally Shiv Sena over government formation. BJP is significantly short of being able to form the government in Maharashtra on its own.

The results in the two states are expected to have an impact on the election in Jharkhand, or at least on how it is contested. While the results in the two states are expected to make BJP cautious and more calculated in its approach, the Opposition could draw lessons from the losses in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Chief Minister Raghubar Das-led BJP is hoping to retain power in the state. In 2014, while the BJP won 37 seats, its ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) won five. The combined tally was enough for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to cross the majority mark of 41 in the 81-member Legislative Assembly.

An unconventional CM – just like Khattar, Fadnavis

Just like Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP high command chose an unconventional chief minister in Jharkhand in 2014.

All three – Manohar Lal Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Raghubar Das – were known leaders in their respective states. But, they were not projected as the face of the campaign. Moreover, Khattar and Fadnavis did not belong to the politically influential Jat and Maratha communities, respectively. Similarly, Das is a non-tribal leader leading a largely tribal state.

Das has faced opposition from tribals over the Land Acquisition Bill (2017), and amendments to the Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act (SPTA) and Chotanagpur Tenancy Act (CTA). The amendments were later withdrawn amid protests.

Voters’ approach in Lok Sabha, Assembly polls

People in Haryana and Maharashtra voted differently in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In Haryana, BJP had won all of the 10 parliamentary constituencies. However, in the Assembly election, BJP managed to win only 40 of the 90 seats.

In Maharashtra, BJP and Shiv Sena had won 23 and 18 Lok Sabha seats, respectively. This was out of the state’s total 48 parliamentary seats. However, ‘Maha-Yuti’ as they are locally known, managed to win 161 of the 288 Assembly seats.

The two elections happened merely six months apart.

In Jharkhand too, BJP-AJSU had won 12 of the state’s 14 parliamentary constituencies.

In the months leading up to the polls in Haryana and Maharashtra, speculation was rife that the Jharkhand Legislative Assembly would be dissolved early to pave way for early polls. This would have meant that the three states would have gone for polling simultaneously.

An unnamed senior BJP leader told The Times of India that the state unit had voted against this idea.

BJP spokesperson Pratul Shahdeo told the newspaper that with elections in the two states over, central leaders and ministers would now be able to “dedicate their time and energy” to campaign in Jharkhand.

Issues such as lack of job opportunities, economic slowdown and agrarian distress that people in Haryana and Maharashtra may have had in their minds while voting, are applicable in Jharkhand too.

While the highlight of the BJP campaign in Maharashtra and Haryana were abrogation of Article 370, it remains to be seen if the issue will be repeated in Jharkhand.

An unnamed party member told the newspaper that the two state poll results have indicated to the BJP that issues raised to incite nationalistic feelings among voters – such as abrogation of Article 370 and proposal to award Bharat Ratna to Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, Jyotiba Phule and Savitribai Phule (in Maharashtra) – were trumped by regional issues.