Rumblings within NDA Bihar? Here's all you need to know

In May, a video featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was widely shared on social media.

In the video, PM Modi is seen addressing a rally in Bihar while Kumar sits with a smug face on the stage, and does not respond even as everyone around him is chanting 'Bharat Mata ki Jai'.

Experts had observed that the video is actually a testament to what Nitish Kumar, who once nursed prime ministerial ambitions for himself, has turned into. Once one of PM Modi's staunchest critics, Kumar campaigned for the BJP and his own party, the Janata Dal (United), in Bihar.

The results showed: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept Bihar, winning 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The BJP stated that it was a "Modi tsunami" that ensured the result, while Kumar made it clear that it was a collective effort, and his own image had contributed to the victory.

Soon after, the JD(U) announced that it would not be a part of the Union Cabinet after it was offered only one ministerial berth in PM Modi's council of ministers. While JD(U) leaders were quick to state that all was well within the NDA in Bihar, reports indicated that the party and its leader were unhappy with the BJP's treatment of its allies.

On June 2, Kumar extended the Bihar Cabinet, inducting only JD(U) ministers. This, experts observed, was a tit-for-tat move, and one that left the BJP stunned.

Struggle for separate identity 

The JD(U) and Kumar have struggled to establish their separate identity within an NDA led by a powerful BJP. While the partnership seems to have been going more or less smoothly until the recent troubles, the two parties have different stances regarding some key issues.

For instance, while issues such as ending Article 370 are at the top of BJP's priority list, Kumar has opposed the idea and refused to toe the BJP's line during the campaigning in Bihar. Even before the campaigning officially started, JD(U) leaders had stated in March that tinkering with Articles 370 and 35A "could be detrimental to national unity and integrity".

Similarly, on the issue of building of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the JD(U) has stated that the party believed that "in current circumstances, the Supreme Court, and only the Supreme Court, can now settle this matter".  Without naming anyone, the party had also criticised "aggressive posturing" on the issue.

On the issue of Triple Talaq, the party has stated that it wants the communities affected by the legislation to be made a part of the decision-making process.

Bihar 2020 

Observers state that by opposing the BJP on these issues, the JD(U) tried to keep its secular image intact. It might have helped the party, since according to reports, of the 16 seats that the JD(U) won this time around, eight have a substantial population of minorities.

The posturing could also help the party in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, irrespective of whether it remains within the NDA or out of it.

Reports suggest that Kumar is, in fact, taking decisions related to the BJP by looking at next year's Assembly polls. JD(U) leaders' call for the Centre to provide Bihar with Special Category Status (SCS) and Kumar's inclusion of ministers from social backgrounds ignored by the BJP in Cabinet formation—like the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) and the Mahadalits— are indications of that.

Moreover, the JD(U) chief's decision to remain within the NDA but out of the government will allow him some jostling space with regards to issues that the JD(U) does not agree with.

Kumar might also be worried about BJP's possible push for its chief ministerial candidate if the NDA were to win the state polls.

Meanwhile, leaders from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) have stated that they are ready to welcome Kumar back to the Grand Alliance fold if he so wishes.

"That comes with riders," an Opposition leader told Moneycontrol. "Kumar will not become the Chief Minister if he rejoins us. But he might not become the CM if he stays within the NDA as well," the leader said, adding that Kumar seems to be stuck in between, "as usual".

Meanwhile, the BJP would be keeping a close eye on Kumar's moves, especially considering his flip-flops in the past.

While Home Minister Amit Shah remaindered Union minister Giriraj Singh after the latter's tweet on Kumar and other allies attending an Iftar party, both BJP and JD(U) chose to skip each other's parties. Kumar also hit back at Singh, saying "such people" do not have any religion.