Will more police bring Montgomery's crime rate down? It's not so simple

Will more police actually reduce crime in Montgomery?

It’s a question the council asks themselves each year during budget negotiations.

It’s a question Police Chief Ernest Finley asks when he’s brainstorming ways to curb violent crime after another shooting.

It's what people complaining online about Montgomery's crime say is the obvious solution.

It’s the action that many of this year’s mayoral candidates promise when discussing crime rates in the city while giving their elevator campaign pitches.

So hiring more officers sounds easy enough, but there is much more to consider, criminal justice experts say. Departments and cities are better served when more officers participate in community-oriented policing and the money that would have been used for new officers is used to support nonprofits that work in high-crime areas of the city. 

Birmingham, Mobile, Huntsville are all more violent than Montgomery

Montgomery is "middle of the pack" for number of officers per 10,000 people, Natalie Hipple, associate professor at Indiana University, said in a recent interview.

Pulling from the last available numbers in 2016, reported by the department to the state and the FBI, Montgomery sat at a statistically comfortable 25.1 officers per 10,000 people, Hipple said.

The state did not include the number of sworn police officers for each department in their 2017 report. Montgomery, along with Huntsville, Mobile and Birmingham, were not included in the 2017 FBI report on employee data.

Hipple compared Montgomery’s rate of officers to other much larger cities in the country. Baltimore had about 40 officers per 10,000, Chicago had 33, Detroit had 35 and St. Louis had about 38 officers per 10,000 in 2016, well above Montgomery’s rate. 

“But their crime rate was also much higher,” she said.

Using the same per 10,000 rate, Montgomery’s violent crime rate — homicides, robbery, rape and assaults — in 2016 was at least half that of those cities.

Montgomery’s rate of officers in 2016 also put the city below Mobile by less than 1 and Huntsville by 1.  Birmingham had 39.6 officers per 10,000.

While Montgomery was below the other cities in terms of available sworn police officers, the city’s crime rate was also, again, lower than the other three cities. Montgomery’s violent crime rate was about two-thirds that of Mobile’s and Huntsville's and about a third of Birmingham’s.

That remained true in 2017, except that Birmingham’s violent crime rate dropped significantly, according to numbers reported to the state, thus bringing Montgomery’s violent crime rate to about half of that of the Iron City.

No numbers have been released on crime in the state for 2018 yet.

“There are some mixed opinions on if having more police reduces crime, but in looking at those cities, with more officers and still higher crime, I say it doesn’t,” Hipple said.

Montgomery isn't even at full strength for its police officer staffing

Montgomery has lost officers since 2016. Currently, the department sits at 475 sworn police, about 30 officers fewer than 2 1/2 years ago. 

The department is authorized for 510, Chief Finley said in a recent interview.

Montgomery's police department is struggling to keep up with attrition. It’s not an uncommon phenomenon for most departments across the country at the moment, Hipple said.

Be it retirements or a lack of desire to be a police officer given the scrutiny they face, most police chiefs will say they need more officers, Hipple said. 

"It's a tough time for policing," she said. "In looking at shortages, I don’t know a police department that says they have enough. Most police departments aren’t fully staffed."

Even with that drop, Montgomery averaged about 23.9 officers per 10,000 people, well within a comfortable range, Hipple said.

Finley is thinking about increasing the number of sworn officers, but he'd just like to reach that authorized strength before he can consider adding more, he said. 

"We've always been told by the current administration that if we needed more officers, then the city would find a way to make that work," Finley said. "I think we can get there in a few recruit classes."

The proposed budget for 2020 includes a $1.8 million increase for salaries to account for merit raises, but not more officers. 

"That authorized strength is going to stay where it's at this year," Finley said. "We'll try again next year."

'If your politicians are talking about more police, they're blowing smoke'

Violent crime in the United States is on a downward trend and has been for the past 32 years, according to the FBI. 

Ask Mayor Todd Strange about crime, and he'll say it's on a downward trend in the city.

"Contrary to claims in social media, the number of crime victims has been decreasing over the last several years," Strange wrote in his 2020 budget message to the council. "In fact, there are more than 500 fewer victims in the last 3 1/2 years. This positive trend, a reduction of nearly 5 percent, is due to innovative law enforcement techniques, community policing and the assistance of our citizens."

Montgomery residents, however, frequently question that narrative by drawing attention to frequent gunfire and injuries as a result of it. 

Based on numbers provided to the state, violent crime has been on the increase in Montgomery since 2013. Overall crime, however, has been rising and falling each year for the same time period ending with a decrease from 2016-2017, according to the most recent data available. 

Without data from 2018, which was sought through a public records request that was not fulfilled before publication, it's difficult to corroborate Strange's anecdotal evidence of a decrease in crime. 

Regardless, both Strange and police officials tout innovative policing methods as the key to crime reduction. And they're right, according to Hipple and Richard Bennett, a professor of law and criminology at American University.

"If your politicians are talking about more police, they're blowing smoke," Bennett said. "If they're talking about different tactics, there might be something there."

Bennett said it is possible to decrease crime rates with a fewer officers.

“It’s all about how you use the officers available to you,” he said.

Bennett highlighted a study of New York City. Between 1993 to 2013, the city’s crime rate decreased as the stop-and-frisk method of policing increased.

“It certainly works to reduce crime, but then you have a perception problem,” Bennett said. “You’re better served by community-oriented policing.”

Better policing: foot patrols and 'cops on dots'

Finley says the department needs to be better about putting more "cops on the dots," covering crime hot spots in the city. 

Bennett said foot patrols and hot spot policing can be an effective way to reduce crime. 

"A 2011 study in Philadelphia identified hot spots in the city and police did targeted foot patrols. In those areas, they found that crime was reduced by 22%," he said. "People are not willing to commit crimes when they feel they will get caught."

Community members recently have called for a return of the "retake our turf" team, often referred to as "Jump Street." The unit operated through out the 1990s before community-oriented policing was introduced. 

However articles from that time quoted residents who expressed concern about the “aggressive, high-profile unit.”

“Jump street patrol comes out here with their big guns, cussing us out and screaming at us to get back inside,’" said one resident. "They are out here to help us, but they are hurting us.”

Montgomery police Sgt. Jarrett Williams said "Jump Street" was a technique thrown out as departments moved toward predictive and community policing. The department still employs "specialty units designed to reduce crime, but their methods change based upon the needs of the community."

References to community oriented policing (COP) in articles from the early 2000s call on city residents to play a role in crime reduction. 

“Law enforcement does not have the power to change things such as unemployment, moral education, freedom, civil liberties, social and economic opportunities which influence the amount of crime in a community. This is where the idea of COP comes from — the need for the police and the public to work together as ‘co-producers’ of crime prevention," according to an Advertiser article.

The majority of crimes are solved with the help of the community, Hipple said. 

"That's why building those relationships is crucial," she said. "You need the community to trust in the police for them to tell officers important information."

Currently, the community policing unit organizes neighborhood watch programs, conducts security assessments, gives safety talks, supervises the Volunteers in Police Service organization and runs the Junior and Citizens police academies, Williams said. That unit is staffed by five sworn officers and one records clerk. 

Those initiatives, like "cops on dots," and the community-oriented policing unit, rely on a healthy police force, but Finley said he's often using officers on overtime. 

Expert: Money would be better spent on social justice initiatives

It all comes back to money, Hipple said. 

Hiring more officers is a significant investment. 

"Even just hiring one, you've got salary, benefits, equipment and training costs," Hipple said. "It's not an insignificant dollar amount to get one officer to the point where they can be on their own."

If the city were to hire 20 new officers, measuring a noticeable difference in crime based on the recruits would be difficult.

"It takes a lot to move crime numbers," she said. 

That money spent on new officers, Hipple said, would be better spent on social justice initiatives that focus on issues which lead to high crime. 

Gbenga Ajilore, a senior economist at the Center for American Progress who has a criminal justice background, agreed with Hipple. 

"We have to reframe the discussion under the auspices of economic development," Ajilore said. "The areas that are more crime ridden are often areas with vacant houses, no businesses. You have to provide opportunities to these areas."

Hipple suggested investing in more services for people reentering the community following incarceration.

"In most cities, it's a small percentage of people that account for most of the crime. Repeat offenders," she said. "People in the neighborhoods know who these offenders are, but if they don't feel like the police will listen or the courts will hold them, they won't talk."

Finley, last month, called on continued support from the public. 

"We have to deal with some of these quality of life issues, the high unemployment, drug issues, homelessness, that lead to crime," he said. "As we work on that as a city, the initiatives we do have can make a difference."

Contact Montgomery Advertiser reporter Kirsten Fiscus at 334-318-1798 or KFiscus@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter @KDFiscus