Steamy and stormy: Highest severe risk favors central Minnesota

Elevated tornado risk between the Twin Cities and Duluth

Steamy and stormy. That’s the mantra for the Upper Midwest this week.

A gnarly Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed a bow echo across North Dakota last night and into Minnesota this morning as forecast.

Wind gusts as high as 83 mph were recorded in North Dakota and near Fergus Falls, Minnesota. The wind was so intense at turbine level that it bent these wind turbine blades in Fergus Falls.

The gusts flipped over this camper in Otter Tail.

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The severe winds downed trees and sent an unwelcome guest into this home.

Shelf cloud reaches Twin Cities

The MCS generated an impressive and scary-looking shelf cloud on the leading edge that blew into the Twin Cities this morning. These cloud features are common on the leading edges of intense MCS structures.

Severe risk today

Today’s severe weather risk zone shifts into Minnesota. Severe storms are likely again today across much of central and northeast Minnesota. Here’s the risk zone from the Duluth NWS office.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas for central and northern Minnesota
Duluth National Weather Service

The most favored area for severe storms favors a broad zone between the Twin Cities and Duluth. Higher than usual low-level wind shear means an elevated tornado risk in this area.

Storms that form west and north of the Twin Cities today may work down into the Twin Cities area later tonight.

Heat warning

The excessive heat warning continues until 8 pm tonight for the greater Twin Cities area. A heat advisory covers much of southern Minnesota.

Heat warnings
Heat warnings
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, and Hastings 421 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 ...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 103 expected.

* WHERE...Scott, Carver, Washington, Ramsey, Anoka, Hennepin and Dakota Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

Heat index values could reach the 100 to 105 degree range today.

Forecast heat index vales Wednesday
Forecast peak heat index vales Wednesday afternoon
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Stay alert for severe weather watches and warning today. Get up to the minute updates at the MPR severe weather live blog.