Missouri State University braces for rare enrollment drop this fall

Missouri State has been on a roll, growing overall enrollment nearly every fall for more than two decades.

This fall, that roll is expected to come to an end.

MSU President Clif Smart said enrollment for the 2019-20 year is expected to be down "between 2.5 and 3 percent" when classes start Monday.

Fewer students means less revenue, and fewer staff needed. The university expects a loss of up to $5 million and made budget adjustments to offset the loss.

"We have done some efficiency moves this year, and we anticipate having to do some more next year," Smart said. "You want your employee base to match your customers or the students you have."

Across Missouri, the number of high school graduates has decreased and there is more competition. There are fewer nontraditional students.

"We are hypothetically planning for 2,700 new, first-time freshmen as opposed to 3,000 in each of the last several years," Smart said.

Photos: 2019 move-in day at Missouri State University

Political upheaval and the economic downturn in other parts of the world has also led to a drop in the number of international students.

Low unemployment rates have decreased enrollment at two-year colleges, reducing the number of prospective transfers.

"We'll have fewer transfer students," Smart said. "The community colleges are shrinking at a significantly higher rate because so many people are employed."

The MSU Board of Governors recently held its annual retreat, and strategic enrollment management was a major topic.

In a blog post, Smart explained enrollment has long been a priority, but adjustments must be made going forward.

"If we don’t change our strategies and move the needle, indicators project that we will likely face another enrollment decline in fall 2020," Smart wrote, in the blog. "The die is not firmly cast. We still have time to double our efforts and implement new recruitment and retention strategies. It is critical that we all work together to prioritize enrollment in the coming academic year."

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To do that, the university will develop a strategic enrollment management plan with input from the campus and community.

"This will not be a 'top-down' plan developed in a silo by senior administrators," he wrote. "Rather, we want the plan to come from the ground up, incorporating input and feedback from stakeholders throughout the university, many of whom regularly work face-to-face with current and prospective students."

A series of councils and task forces will be created to develop a framework, with specific steps, in the following areas:

• Recruitment and outreach
• Retention and completion
• Academic programs and deliveries
• Marketing and communications

The university plans to kick off the work with an event from noon to 5 p.m. Sept. 18 at the Darr Center, 2401 S. Kansas Expressway. Individuals interested in participating are asked to email Smart at president@missouristate.edu.