Many areas of New Jersey have had very little snow to shovel this winter. (Ed Murray | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
January and February are supposed to be the two snowiest months in New Jersey. Not this year.
Old Man Winter has been behaving oddly, pestering our state with far more rain storms and wintry mixes than plain old snowstorms — you know, the ones that whiten the ground with snow, and only snow, and allow us to get some use out of those dusty snowblowers sitting in the back of the garage.
For many areas of New Jersey, the biggest thumping of snow we got during the past few months happened back in November — before the winter season officially started. Since that over-performing storm (the one that brought parts of the state to a virtual standstill a week before Thanksgiving), plenty of storm systems have come our way, but most delivered either rain or a sloppy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain that changed to plain rain.
Like a broken record that keeps repeating the same tune, we have yet another one of those wintry mixes hitting the Garden State on Wednesday. So, what's going on? Where's all the snow this winter?
The answer isn't so simple, according to New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, whose office at Rutgers University oversees the New Jersey Weather & Climate Network and maintains winter weather data going all the way back to 1895.
Slush has been more common than snow this winter in many areas of New Jersey, including Somerville in Somerset County. (Ed Murray | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Don't blame El Niño
Robinson says some of the usual suspects in wreaking havoc on winter weather — such as the El Niño weather pattern that has warmed the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather around the globe — are not contributing to New Jersey's low-snow winter.
Instead, it seems to be more of a matter of bad luck, if you happen to be a snow lover. In short, the big storm systems are not taking tracks that favor substantial snowstorms for the Garden State.
“The prevailing situation has been one where storm systems have either tracked too far to the south of New Jersey to provide meaningful snow, despite at times having cold enough temperatures in place. Or they have tracked over us or from the Ohio Valley northeastward while staying to the west, northwest and north of us,” Robinson said. “This latter pattern results in New Jersey staying on the warm side, east of the storm, with the counterclockwise flow bringing up mild air into New Jersey.”
In many of these cases this winter, states to the south and west of New Jersey got hit with heavy snow, but we ended up with just a dusting of snow, plain rain or a wintry mix that gradually turned to rain.
This was a familiar scene on radar maps in New Jersey this winter, with different colors showing different types of precipitation. Blue and purple are snow, pink is sleet and green is rain. (AccuWeather)
With several storms this winter, the potential was there for a decent-sized snowstorm, Robinson noted. Those started out with enough cold air in our region to bring some snow as the moisture arrived, “but eventually the cold air was replaced by above-freezing temperatures, first aloft, with snow going to sleet or freezing rain, and eventually down to the surface with just plain rain falling.”
Basically, warmer air has been winning many of the battles with colder air at different layers of the atmosphere. So, many areas of New Jersey have gotten “cheated” out of big snowstorms.
Among the surprises this winter: Atlantic City has had more snow than Newark. (Lori Nichols | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
Not a big snow dud everywhere
While most of Central Jersey and the northeastern region of the state have had very little snow this winter, the northwestern region hasn’t fared too badly, because temperatures have remained on the colder side during some of the mixed storms, Robinson noted. As a result, it took longer for the snow to transition to rain, and in some cases the snow never changed to rain.
And many areas of South Jersey benefited from the snowstorms that hit the Mid-Atlantic region this winter. In those cases, “the precipitation shield never made it far enough north to provide snow to central or northern sectors, despite enough cold air being available,” Robinson said.
So, one of the surprising statistics to come out of this winter so far is the amount of snow that has fallen in the Atlantic City region compared to the Newark region.
Statistics from the National Weather Service show Atlantic City is clearly winning this battle, with 14.8 inches of snow reported this season — prior to Wednesday's storm — compared to only 9.2 inches of snow in Newark. The casino city is actually slightly ahead of its normal pace for snowfall this season, with a week remaining in February and all of March to get through.
On the other side of the measuring stick, Newark normally has 20 inches of snow by this point of the winter season and typically picks up 9.3 inches in February. So it is lagging far behind, with only 1.9 inches of snow accumulating this month, before Wednesday’s storm.
Snow? Sleet? Freezing rain? We been getting a lot of storms with a mix of everything this winter. (Aris Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
More winter storm coverage
Sleet, hail or freezing rain: What's the difference between those icy pellets?
After messy blast of snow, Thursday's commuters will see dramatically different conditions
Frozen in Time - 7 statues endure the wintry mix
It was a familiar scene in Edison on Wednesday, Feb. 20, where about 2 inches of snow fell before the precipitation changed to sleet. With rising temperatures, rain was expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. (Patti Sapone | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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