New Jersey and other parts of the northern United States will likely face a wetter than normal winter, but the season is also shaping up to be warmer than usual, according to the 2019-2020 winter outlook released by the national Climate Prediction Center.
Forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center — an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, better known as NOAA — say there’s a 33 to 40 percent chance that New Jersey and Pennsylvania will have warmer-than-average temperatures during the main three winter months of December, January and February.
They also say there’s a 33 to 40 percent chance those regions will have a wetter-than-average winter.
The forecasters do not specify which type of precipitation will be the most dominant this winter, so the outlook has no projections on how much snow, sleet or rain is likely to fall.
This winter outlook map shows wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the northern tier of the United States this winter season.Climate Prediction Center | NOAA
It is standard practice for the agency’s winter outlook to shy away from seasonal snowfall accumulations, because “snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” the agency notes. However, “even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected.”
The Climate Prediction Center said its outlook for a warmer and wetter winter is mainly based on the absence of dominant weather patterns, such as El Niño or La Niña.
“Other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather,” the forecast agency said. “ For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple weeks.”
This winter outlook map shows warmer-than-average temperatures are likely for much of the United States this winter.Climate Prediction Center | NOAA
AccuWeather, one of the world’s largest private forecasting companies, issued its winter weather outlook earlier this month and is calling for a stormy winter season in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and other states in the northeastern region.
AccuWeather says those areas can expect above-normal snowfall totals during the 2019-2020 winter months, but the season is likely to get off to a slow start.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.